Baseball Daily Dose: Dose: Orange is the New Bat
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Ending months of speculation, the Orioles and slugging 1B/OF Chris Davis finally agreed to a contract on Saturday morning. It’s a seven-year deal worth $161 million, lapping the Orioles’ previous record-high contract of $85.5 million given to Adam Jones. The Davis deal includes $42 million in interest-free deferred payments. As a result, he will make $17 million annually between 2016 and ’22, then receive $3.5 million per year from 2023-2032 and $1.4 million from 2033-37. Davis also receives limited no-trade protection.
The Orioles acquired 1B/OF Mark Trumbo from the Mariners last month, giving them insurance in case they weren’t able to retain Davis, as the club reportedly grew frustrated with negotiations. With Davis back in the fold, however, he will retake his home at first base while Trumbo will handle DH duties. Preparing for life without Davis, the Orioles reportedly made a five-year, $90 million offer to free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and they still may be interested if Cespedes is willing to take a short-term deal.
Davis led all hitters in home runs last season, smacking 47 of them. He also led the majors in dingers with 53 and in RBI with 138 in 2013, resulting in a third-place finish in American League Most Valuable Player Award balloting. Since breaking out with the Orioles in 2012, he has hit an aggregate .256/.342/.533 over 2,430 plate appearances.
Davis is a top-10 fantasy first baseman and arguably top-five. While he strikes out quite often – he whiffed 208 times last season, leading the big leagues – Davis is an elite contributor in HR and RBI and has a batting average on par with the league average typically.
Royals Add Kennedy
The Orioles weren’t the only ones to sign a free agent on Saturday morning. The Royals and starter Ian Kennedy agreed to a five-year, $70 million contract. The deal reportedly includes an opt-out clause after the first two years.
Kennedy, 31, struggled with the Padres last season, finishing with a 9-15 record, a 4.28 ERA, and a 174/52 K/BB ratio in 168 1/3 innings. It was the third time in the last four seasons in which the right-hander posted an ERA above 4.00. Curiously, the Padres extended him a $15.8 million qualifying offer after the season. And even more curiously, Kennedy turned it down. At the time, it was believed that Kennedy having draft pick compensation attached to him would limit his market. In retrospect, that was the right call as he was able to land a multi-year contract with an average annual value only about $2 million below the QO.
Kennedy will slot into the middle of the Royals’ starting rotation behind Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura. He’ll also be joined by Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy, and Chris Young. While he won’t replace Johnny Cueto, Kennedy adds reliability as he has started 30-plus games each season since becoming an everyday starter six years ago.
Though he averaged better than a strikeout per inning and in excess of three strikeouts for every one walk, fantasy owners should be cautious when considering Kennedy. He has always had issues limiting home runs, as he yielded 31 of them in only 168 1/3 innings this past season. In fact, since the start of the 2010 season, only three starters have allowed more home runs than Kennedy (147): Dan Haren, Jeremy Guthrie, and James Shields.
Royals Extend Cain
The Royals and outfielder Lorenzo Cain weren’t able to reach an agreement ahead of Friday’s arbitration figure submission deadline. It didn’t take long for the Royals to solve this dilemma, though, as they inked the 29-year-old to a two-year, $17.5 million contract extension which will cover both remaining years of arbitration eligibility. Cain will earn $6.5 million this coming season and $11 million in 2017. No options are included in the deal, so Cain is likely headed to free agency after the ’17 season.
Cain had filed for $7.85 million and the Royals countered at $5 million. The average annual value of the extension — $8.75 million – exceeds Cain’s one-year asking price and is $2.325 million more than the midpoint between the two sides’ initial figures.
This past season, Cain played outstanding defense while batting a career-best .307/.361/.477 with 16 home runs, 72 RBI, 101 runs scored, and 28 stolen bases across 604 plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, Cain’s 6.6 Wins Above Replacement tied with Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock for eighth-best in baseball. Though there was no legitimate argument to place him higher than winner Josh Donaldson or runner-up Mike Trout for the American League Most Valuable Player Award, Cain’s third-place finish comes as no surprise.
Cain, who made his first All-Star team in 2015, is a fantasy All-Star as well, providing elite value in a plethora of categories as a speedy outfielder who occasionally hits for power along with a high batting average.
Closers Strike Big in Arbitration
Those that weren’t able to reach agreements ahead of Friday’s arbitration deadline will have their cases settled by an arbitrator starting in February. 34 players remained unsigned. They can still negotiate with their teams in order to avoid a hearing. HardballTalk has a list of all 34 players who didn’t sign as well as a summary of those who did.
There were plenty of interesting cases, such as the stark contrast between National League Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta’s asking price of $13 million and the Cubs’ counter-offer of $7.5 million. Additionally, Astros starter and American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel avoided arbitration, agreeing to a $7.25 million salary, a record for a player’s first year of eligibility. Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg also earned $10.4 million in his final year of eligibility with the Nationals.
However, the most interesting aspect in this writer’s opinion was the success of closers. Drew Storen and the Blue Jays agreed on a $8.375 million salary for the 2016 season, Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers avoided arbitration at $10.65 million, and Trevor Rosenthal of the Cardinals earned $5.6 million in his first year of eligibility. Storen is in his fourth and final year while Jansen is in his third and final year. Additionally, Mark Melancon and the Pirates agreed at $9.65 million.
Earlier this offseason, we saw five elite relievers change addresses, with Ken Giles going from the Phillies to the Astros, Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers to the Tigers, Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees, Craig Kimbrel from the Padres to the Red Sox, and Drew Storen from the Nationals to the Blue Jays. Perhaps taking a cue from the defending World Series champion Royals, with their deadly late-innings combinations of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Ryan Madson, other teams are focusing on bolstering their bullpen to shorten games.
Quick Hits: Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk said he his “ahead of schedule” in recovery from offseason hernia surgery and is expected to be ready for spring training … Free agent outfielder Shane Victorino may have to wait for Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton to go off the market before receiving offers … The Yoenis Cespedes market is reportedly “intensifying” and the Astros are believed to be a dark horse in the running … The Mariners signed 1B/OF Travis Ishikawa to a minor league deal on Saturday … Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (thumb) will have his cast removed in February … Free agent pitcher Doug Fister is reportedly seeking a two-year, $22 million deal … Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale tabbed Zack Greinke to start on Opening Day against the Rockies … The Padres and reliever Fernando Rodney were reported on Friday to be “closing in on a deal” but nothing has been finalized yet … The Angels signed reliever Al Alburquerque to a one-year, $1.1 million deal on Friday … Orioles manager Buck Showalter said the club isn’t trading pitcher Kevin Gausman … The Rays and infielder Logan Forsythe agreed to a two-year extension worth $10.25 million on Thursday … The Padres signed shortstop Alexei Ramirez to a one-year deal worth $4 million on Thursday.
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