Tom Brady, Peyton Manning 17 will decide AFC championship
New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)
Sunday
3:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Super Bowl 50 first gives way to Brady-Manning 17.
In what almost felt like it was a predestined meeting, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will play in the AFC championship game. After the two rivals missed each other in the first meeting of the season between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos — Brock Osweiler was starting then — Manning has regained his starting role, even if his vintage days appeared well behind him in the Broncos’ divisional-round victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Will it be Manning’s last game? Last game vs. Brady? Last for the Broncos? No one knows, as he has yet to declare his 2016 intentions. All of which raise the stakes even more.
Manning looked rather average, although his receivers clearly let him down with at least six drops. Brady had a strong game — with his arm and, yes, even his legs — in the Patriots’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs to advance to the conference title game. Just as it’s 1 vs. 2 in the NFC with the Arizona Cardinals meeting the Carolina Panthers, it’s the same seeds facing each other in the other conference.
Brady has the edge in head-to-head meetings with Manning all-time at 11-5, and 3-1 with Manning as a Bronco. But that one win was at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in the 2013 AFC championship game. Osweiler actually had one of his better games in the first meeting this season, back in Week 10, which essentially gave the Broncos home-field advantage in this game when C.J. Anderson’s rushing TD in overtime won it.
The Broncos will have to run the ball against the Patriots, who are a bit banged up at linebacker, to win. New England has a better pass rush and better coverage players than the Steelers do, and the Broncos’ offensive line has looked worse the longer it has been asked to protect.
Look for Manning to throw a slew of short to medium passes — slants, screens, outs and the like — hoping that the Patriots defensive backs don’t sit on those. If they do, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders (who had six catches, 113 yards the last meeting) can use double moves to throw them off. Thomas had a nightmarish game against the Patriots (one catch on 13 targets, umpteen drops) but delivered a big play late in regulation.
The Patriots’ secondary has had a good season. Malcolm Butler has stood tall as a No. 1 corner, matching top receivers weekly, and safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty have had very good seasons. The pass rush has been strong and diverse, although defensive end Chandler Jones was banged up in the win over the Chiefs.
Brady has had a tremendous season, although he finished slower after Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski suffered myriad injuries. Gronkowski hurt his knee against the Broncos and didn’t look 100 percent until he roasted the Chiefs for two TDs. He’ll pose trouble for the Broncos again this time, and the Broncos have yet to see Edelman and Amendola, who missed the first meeting.
But can the Patriots’ offensive line hold up against the Broncos’ good defensive front? Much of that will be on Brady manipulating them with short, rhythm passes. He threw for 280 yards and three TDs in the first meeting but had an uncharacteristic 19 incompletions — 14 of them in the second half and overtime.
This might not be a clash of titans in peak form, at least as it pertains to Manning, and each have overcome controversy to get to this game. Otherwise, these teams appear just as evenly matched as they were when they battled to one of the more entertaining regular-season games.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
