Greg Cosell’s Playoff Preview: Breaking down Sunday’s games
After the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals moved on to the conference championship round Saturday, we move on to break down Sunday’s games.
That includes a tough game to get a read on, because of injury issues and uncertainty about both quarterbacks:
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
Protecting Cam Newton might be the Panthers’ highest priority in this game.
They’re going against a Seattle pass rush that really bothered the Minnesota Vikings offense last week. The Seahawks dominated up front in the run game, and also in getting pressure on Teddy Bridgewater.
Up front, the Seahawks strength stems from Michael Bennett, who can play laterally down the line of scrimmage in the run game, can win one-on-one pass rushes and is as good as there is in the NFL. He can line up at any position, and the Panthers will spend a lot of time identifying where Bennett is and then adjusting. On a red-zone sack on third down late in the third quarter, Bennett split a double team by the right guard and right tackle and forced Bridgewater to leave the pocket. Bridgewater ran into a sack by Cliff Avril, who was lined up wide in a two-point stance.
The Vikings didn’t try many shot plays (deep passes downfield), but one in the fourth quarter was stopped by Seattle’s pass rush. Bobby Wagner’s inside blitz beat running back Jerick McKinnon, who couldn’t get to Wagner off the run fake. Ahtyba Rubin quickly beat the right tackle to the outside to add a second element of quick pressure on Bridgewater. The Vikings wanted to throw deep but the result was a 9-yard sack.
The Panthers like to throw to the intermediate and deep levels, but won’t be able to if the pass rush gets to Newton as quickly as it did to Bridgewater here:
All of this should be a concern to the Panthers because their offensive line was a little leaky down the stretch. They played much better in the first 12 games, particular at the tackle positions. It wasn’t totally problematic for the Panthers, but it could be exploited by a Seahawks pass rush that is getting better and better. Newton can buy time with his legs, but if the Panthers can’t protect it will be hard for the Panthers to get much in the passing game.
An interception by Kam Chancellor in the first meeting between these teams came because right tackle Mike Remmers was beat on a speed-to-power rush by Seattle defensive end Cliff Avril. Ted Ginn ran by cornerback Cary Williams (who was cut in early December) on a go route and Newton wanted to go there. Avril got to Newton and hit his arm on the throw, causing a pass that Chancellor could pick off.
The Panthers are generally a protection-first offense, in part because they see so many zone concepts. They face a lot of zone because it’s so hard to contain Newton from running when you’re in man coverage. And if you can protect long enough, receivers can find voids in the zone. Watch early in the game to see how the Panthers’ line is faring against a hot Seattle pass rush.
The Seahawks have a mobile quarterback too, but the Panthers might have some advantages in containing him. The Panthers play predominantly zone coverage, so they don’t often have their backs to the quarterback. Also, Carolina’s defense is known for its exceptional speed at linebacker, especially Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. Wilson will probably make a play or two with his legs (he had 53 rushing yards the first meeting) but one reason the Panthers won that game back in October is Kuechly and Davis were outstanding. They’ll have to be good again for Carolina to win Sunday.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT DENVER BRONCOS
It’s very hard to break down what might happen in this game, because there are so many unknown variables. And some of the most important players from the first meeting have changed because of injury or lineup decisions.
Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a shoulder injury and we don’t know how effective he can be. The Steelers offense will be without receiver Antonio Brown, who hasn’t missed a game since 2012, and running back DeAngelo Williams as well. And it’s hard to tell, after just nine passes in Week 17, how good Peyton Manning will be for the Broncos.
We didn’t see much of Roethlisberger after his injury, but the Bengals didn’t change much on defense for his final drive, after he sat out most of the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury. They sent just three or four rushers on each play that final drive, mostly with a split safety zone behind the rush. They wanted to keep everything in front of them and tackle. Here’s a look at the Bengals; pre-snap alignments the first few plays of the drive, you’ll notice corners often playing off and deep safety help:
The Broncos will play Roethlisberger (assuming he starts; if it’s Landry Jones the Steelers will have a tough time moving the ball) a lot differently. The Broncos play a ton of man and they have really good and creative blitz package. If you keep backs or tight ends in, they will green dog (which means the defenders who are supposed to cover those eligible receivers will blitz when they see their man is staying in to block). Roethlisberger will be tested in this game.
One thing that is up in the air with Brown’s injury is how the Broncos will match up. Last time they specifically matched up: Chris Harris was on Brown, Aqib Talib on Martavis Bryant and Bradley Roby on Markus Wheaton. Do they just put Harris on Darrius Heyward-Bey, who will likely replace Brown, or switch it all up?
Something to watch with Manning is if the Broncos can finally hit a big pass play with him in the lineup off of a play-action fake from under center. I looked at all 24 of Manning’s 20-yard passes this season, and all 24 came out of the shotgun. Gary Kubiak’s offense is theoretically set up to hit big passes off play action with the quarterback from under center, but the offense has been different with Manning in the lineup.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
