Royals overcommiting to Ian Kennedy is commitment to winning now
The hot stove is officially on fire.
On the heels of Chris Davis re-signing with the Baltimore Orioles, the Kansas City Royals have reached a five-year, $70 million agreement with free-agent pitcher Ian Kennedy, reports MLB Network insider Jon Heyman. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tells us the deal will include an opt-out after two seasons, which would follow Kennedy’s age-32 season.
If you’re already thinking that five years and $70 million seems like an awfully steep deal for Ian Kennedy, you’re not wrong. There were projections this winter that had Kennedy signing for around three years at $35-36 million, which is half the money he ended up getting. There was even speculation Kennedy would accept the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from San Diego based on the belief his market would not fully develop in a loaded free agent class. It turns out Kennedy was very wise to turn that down.
[Related: Orioles up ante, make Chris Davis richest man in franchise history]
Because Kennedy rejected that qualifying offer, Kansas City will also forfeit their first round pick in the 2016 draft, so they’re sacrificing more than money, which could push the opening day payroll to an unexpected $130 million, to bring Kennedy aboard.
That the Royals committed at this level indicates one thing pretty strongly: They know their window to contend won’t stay open forever. Another two or three years is probably the most realistic expectation, and after getting a taste of championship glory last season, they’re determined to make those seasons count.
Kennedy will essentially step into the spot occupied by Johnny Cueto, who signed a free-agent deal with the San Francisco Giants last month. It might not be fair to expect Kennedy to “replace” Cueto’s top-of-the-rotation pedigree, but he fits well in a rotation that will feature Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura at the top, and fill out with veterans like Chris Young, Kris Medlen and Danny Duffy at the bottom.
Kennedy is coming off an undeniably uneven season in 2015, which had some people surprised San Diego even extended the qualifying offer. He ended up 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 168.1 innings. Perhaps the biggest concern though would be the high home run total he allowed in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The final number was 31, with 19 of those coming at home.
It’s worth pointing out though that Kennedy only allowed 11 during the second half of the season and 16 the previous season, so there’s reason to believe he’ll keep it under control despite his typically low ground ball rate. Reuniting with pitching coach Dave Eiland, who worked with Kennedy during his days in the Yankees’ farm system, could be a key piece of that puzzle as well.
If Kennedy keeps the ball in the yard, he should benefit from simply having a better team around him. Many of those fly balls that dropped around Matt Kemp and Justin Upton in San Diego will find leather with Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon and Jarrod Dyson patrolling the outfield in Kansas City. The impact the Royals defense can have can’t be overstated. It’s a real boost to any pitcher’s outlook, and Kennedy is one of those guys who needs the boost to reach the next level.
[Elsewhere: Dallas Keuchel gets record $7.25MM in arbitration deal with Astros]
Beyond that, Kansas City’s loaded bullpen takes pressure off everybody on the team, but especially the starting pitchers. Kennedy, who has topped 180 innings five of the last six seasons, is capable of working deep on a regular basis. Now he knows his job will be to keep them in the game for six or seven innings, and that’s something the Royals are obviously confident he can do.
Based on everything we’ve learned Saturday, Kennedy could be among the biggest winners in free agency this offseason. And that goes beyond the money.
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
