Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Free ATS Pick Jan 16, 2016. The 12-5 Kansas City Chiefs head into the 12-4 New England Patriots today in this AFC Divisional Championship game on the Turf of Gillette Stadium. Kick off time is scheduled for 4:25 PM ET.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Patriots -5
Total Line: 44
Kansas City routed Houston 30-0 on Saturday in the Wild Card Round. KR-RB Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a TD and the Chiefs never looked back. QB Alex Smith was 17-22 for 190 yards, a TD and a pick. He was also sacked 3 times. The ground game produced 141 yards on 37 carries. TE Travis Kelce caught 8 passes for 128 yards. The defense had 3 sacks, picked off 4 passes and recovered a fumble. They did allow 114 rushing yards on 25 carries in their first playoff win since 1994.
New England lost 20-10 to Miami in Week 17 and has now lost 4 of their last 6 games after starting the year 10-0. QB Tom Brady had another banner campaign, throwing 36 TDs while tossing only 7 interceptions. He was sacked 38 times on the year, most of them coming in the second half of the season as the offensive line has had multiple injuries and multiple lineups. The defense held opponents to 98.6 ypg on the ground but were not as tough through the air (240.8). They also posted 49 sacks.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Betting Trends
Kansas City is 5-0 SU/ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games vs. non-divisional opponents.
New England is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games.
The Patriots have recorded 11 overs, 5 under’s and 1 push in their last 17 home games.
Consensus Pick (ATS)
Kansas City: 47%
New England: 53%
Free NFL Pick
The Patriots have some offensive line issues, but I think that having Julien Edelman and RB James White as options in the passing game will be a solid counter against the Chiefs’ pass rush. Kansas City’s mediocre at best offense is beat up and will have a tough time against New England’s athletic unit.
Take the Patriots -5
Special thanks to Rich Crew for his analysis and point spread prediction on this game. You can get more of his betting suggestions for free at Sports Betting Stats
