Greg Cosell’s Playoff Preview: Breaking down Saturday’s games
Like last week’s previews, I hope to give you a few keys to watch during this weekend’s divisional round games, whether it’s a matchup issue or a specific concept that could change the course of the game.
Here are the previews for Saturday’s divisional games:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The two star tight ends on each side, and how the defenses defends them, are among the biggest keys to this game.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is tough to stop. Here’s a great example of the matchup issues he creates. Last week against the Texans, on second-and-6, Kelce lined up on the line against the Texans’ nickel defense. Houston used nickel most of the game against “12” personnel, which is one back and two tight ends, with cornerback Kevin Johnson matched on Kelce. And on this 25-yard gain, Kelce ran a great route, using initial leverage to create separation against a faster corner.
Kelce got 48 more yard late in the third quarter. He was the No. 2 receiver in a 3×1 set with three receivers to one side and one to the other. The Texans used man coverage to the trips side, and Kelce got open on an in-breaking route against outside leverage cornerback Kareem Jackson.
Here’s a big thing to watch for this game: New England coach Bill Belichick will double-team a player he thinks can beat him. If Jeremy Maclin is out or limited because of an ankle injury, you have to assume the Patriots will double Kelce.
Even when Kelce lines up on the line of scrimmage as a conventional tight end, the Patriots could go old school and have a linebacker jam him coming off the line. You used to see that all the time 15-20 years ago in the NFL but don’t see it much anymore. It’s the “bulls-eye approach.” You just don’t let the guy get off the line cleanly. When Kelce does split wide, that’s when the Patriots can double him. You figure that the Patriots will feel like they can match up with the Chiefs other receivers, Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and the rest, with man coverage.
Rob Gronkowski is a tough matchup too, obviously, and the Chiefs will have to decide if they want to change what they normally do on defense to defend him.
The Chiefs rarely move their corners to match up. Marcus Peters is on the left, Sean Smith is on the right, and they’ll stay that way. They didn’t move either cornerback to match up against Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins last week. The Patriots play “12” personnel more than any team in the NFL, about 43 percent of their snaps, which probably leaves Kansas City in their base defense. Then it depends on formation.
If Gronkowski is split wide, with two receivers on the other side, does Kansas City move their corner who is usually on that side to the opposite slot, or leave the cornerback on his normal side to match up on Gronkowski?
Here’s the type of formation that will cause the issue: Back in Week 5, the Patriots had Gronkowski line up wide early in the third quarter, and Cowboys safety Byron Jones was on him. Tom Brady and Gronkowski took advantage of that matchup for 33 yards.
Last week the Chiefs had safety Eric Berry predominantly matched up on the tight end out of nickel and dime when the Chiefs played man-to-man. If the Chiefs flop their corners to the same side if Gronkowski is split wide on his own, my sense is the Chiefs will match Berry on him. But they usually don’t move their corners around. It’s probable the Patriots test it out early in the game.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Packers lost 38-8 in the first meeting just a few weeks ago. They will have to be creative in the rematch, both with formations and how they use their personnel. They can’t just line up and play against the Cardinals.
The Packers will need to run the ball. They did not run it well at all in the first meeting (which was just 10-0 late in the first half, before turning into a blowout). I liked this 30-yard Eddie Lacy run last weekend against Washington, when the Packers came out in “22” personnel with a straight “I” formation. It looked like inside zone and fullback John Kuhn did an excellent job finding a path to the second level. Lacy did an outstanding job following Kuhn to the back side.
The Packers running game was good last week, with 124 yards on 23 carries in the second half. The passing game made some plays, but overall was uneven against the Redskins. Aaron Rodgers made a few throws but was still inconsistent throwing the ball. There will be a lot of pressure on the running game to be productive.
The Packers will have to protect Rodgers better in this game, obviously, after Rodgers was sacked eight times the first meeting against Arizona. The Cardinals play more dime defense than anyone else in the NFL, because of safety Deone Bucannon. On some of the Cardinals’ blitzes in the first meeting against the Packers, Green Bay couldn’t account for Bucannon, including on one sack in which he came clean through the “A” gap as a fifth rusher. Keep an eye on Bucannon, No. 20 for the Cardinals, to see how the Packers account for him in their protections.
They’ll use Randall Cobb in the backfield again, which they like to do out of four-receiver sets. They’ll get creative with that, although in their passing game they don’t feature a lot of combination concepts to beat man defense; the Packers usually run independent routes and expect the receivers to win.
Defensively, the Packers have a challenge against the Cardinals’ offense. Pass rush will be key. Carson Palmer was in empty sets on 22 percent of his dropbacks this season, more than any other quarterback in the league. You have to get pressure against him, especially in those empty sets.
Against the Redskins, the Packers were able to generate a good pass rush. They have used concepts like Julius Peppers being aligned inside of Clay Matthews in the dime defense, and they run effective stunts with them.
Here’s a great example of the Packers getting pressure against an empty set. In the fourth quarter, the Packers were in dime and ran a beautifully designed and executed long stunt by Matthews out of four-man pressure. Matthews stunted from the inside out with the concept breaking down Washington’s slide protection.
The Cardinals like taking shots downfield, and pressure can prevent them from hitting big plays. The Packers’ pressure against Washington thwarted a couple of potential big plays, including one in the first quarter that should have been a 68-yard touchdown.
Washington ran a play-action shot play, and the Packers blew the coverage with safety Morgan Burnett reacting underneath and allowing DeSean Jackson to run by him. But Peppers got quick pressure off the edge against the Redskins’ sixth offensive lineman in a heavy package. Peppers pressured Kirk Cousins to a Matthews sack. If that doesn’t happen, this is a 68-yard score. The Packers can similarly limit the Cardinals’ vertical game with pressure, if they can generate it.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
