NFL against the spread picks: Is this the best NFL weekend? – Yahoo Sports (blog)
A lot of people believe the divisional playoff round is the best weekend of the NFL season, and one of the best of the entire sports schedule.
Jay Busbee, Kevin Kaduk and I argued the point on the Grandstanding podcast previewing this weekend’s games; I’d pick Week 1 of the NFL season as the best, for reasons I explained near the end of the podcast. But I won’t argue too much if you think this is the peak of the NFL season.
Divisional playoff previews: KC-NE (4:00), GB-AZ (12:00), SEA-CAR (18:30), PIT-DEN (30:00):
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We get eight really good teams in action, and unlike last week, the top two seeds in each conference are on the field. This round has produced some of the greatest games in NFL history — the Chargers-Dolphins epic in 1981 (which has a great argument for greatest game ever), Roger Staubach’s Hail Mary at Minnesota in 1975, Jets-Browns in 1986 is an underrated classic, 1974 Dolphins-Raiders and the “Sea of Hands,” the Chiefs and Dolphins in the longest game ever in 1971, the Patriots’ “Tuck Rule” over the Raiders, the Ravens’ miracle over the Broncos three years ago, to name just a few — and hopefully we can add to the list this weekend.
[Yahoo Daily Fantasy: $10 could win you $20K in our $175K divisional-round contest]
There are some great matchups this week, especially when you factor in how strong the group of final eight quarterbacks is, so let’s get to the picks:
Patriots (-5) over Chiefs: I felt really good about the Patriots early this week. I think we’ve forgotten a bit how good the Patriots were in their 10-0 start, before injuries hit them hard. And I figured, with the week off, they’d be reasonably healthy for this round.
Then the Rob Gronkowski questions have crept in.
Gronkowski is apparently dealing with pain in his knee, and a back issue as well, and we all know that Gronk is a big part of what makes the Patriots special. If he’s not 100 percent, the Patriots aren’t the same team. But I’m sticking with the favorite here. But it’s a lot tougher with so many questions about Gronkowski.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL CHIEFS-PATRIOTS PREVIEW]
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (3) stands on the sidelines during the second half of an NFL football …
Maybe the bump in the spread for this playoff game is justified, but I also think it’s a lot of points against Green Bay, who will play better this time around. I don’t think the Packers necessarily win, but there’s always the possibility of Aaron Rodgers playing really well. If he does, a touchdown is too much to lay. I’m not convinced the Packers figured everything out in last Sunday’s win over Washington, but they should feel a little more confident. The Packers are going to make adjustments from the first meeting, specifically to protect Rodgers better, and I think they can at least cover.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL PACKERS-CARDINALS PREVIEW]
Panthers (-2.5) over Seahawks: It almost seems like picking the favorite here is actually picking the upset. There is a lot of love for Seattle this week.
The line moved from 3 points to 2.5 earlier this week and by Friday afternoon it was down to 2 or even 1.5 in some spots (for the picks post I use the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em line). Money is pouring in on Seattle and I get that. They’re the defending back-to-back NFC champions and they peaked late. But I still like the Panthers.
First of all, I think the Panthers are legit. I gave up trying to pick them apart and appreciated their 15-1 season for what it was. Also, I think Seattle will have a tough time rebounding from playing in brutal weather conditions in one of the most physical games I’ve seen in a long time. Now they have to play another early start, this one all the way on the East Coast. Either way, this is the best matchup of the weekend. I think we might look back on this as the best game of this postseason.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL SEAHAWKS-PANTHERS PREVIEW]
Broncos (-6.5) over Steelers: The Broncos’ spotty recent playoff history makes me hesitant, and we have no idea what Peyton Manning is going to give Denver on Sunday. He was the lowest-rated quarterback in the NFL when he bowed out because of a foot injury, and he has thrown nine passes in the two months since then. But, the Steelers are really banged up.
Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out. Ben Roethlisberger is questionable, but how well can he throw with a bad shoulder injury? All this comes against the No. 1 defense in the NFL. The Broncos could lose if Manning turns the ball over or the defense lets down, but it’s hard to imagine the Steelers offense putting up too many points with all their injury issues. I have to pick the favorite.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL STEELERS-BRONCOS PREVIEW]
Last week: 3-1
Season to date: 125-128-1
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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