Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Jeff went 3-2 in the Wild Card round as he had winners on the Bengals, Packers and under Texans/Chiefs. Jeff fell short with the Seahawks and Texans. Jeff finished the week at plus 20 units. Jeremy dropped his selections with the Steelers, Texans, Redskins, Seahawks and over Seahawks/Vikings. Jeremy finished the week at minus 220 units. Jeff currently has a 240 unit lead in our playoff-long contest as we head into the Divisional Round. Let’s get to the picks for this weekend’s games.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Jeff: The Packers come off a solid road win 35-18 as they were able to get their offense going against the Redskins. They’ll now travel back to Arizona and take on a Cardinals team that dismantled them back in Week 16 38-8. The Cardinals were on a bye last week which gave them time to rest up and prepare themselves for a strong push deep into the playoffs. The biggest question entering this game is whether or not the Packers’ offense is back after putting up a 35-spot on the Redskins. Leading up into that game I thought the Packers would be able to move the ball more due to the fact that the Redskins’ defense was nowhere the caliber of the Cardinals’ and Vikings’ defenses. I think the Packers will fall back into their struggles in protecting QB Aaron Rodgers when facing a very strong defensive front in the Cardinals. Even if the Packers look to the no-huddle offense like they implemented last week, I still think they’ll have difficulty moving the ball effectively. The last time these two teams met Rodgers was sacked eight times. The Packers will also have one less offensive weapon as WR Davante Adams suffered a knee injury versus the Redskins and will most likely sit this weekend. The Cardinals’ last game in Week 17 against the Seahawks was one they’d sure like to forget as they were blown out 36-6. The Cardinals have had two weeks to think about the loss. They are itching to get back on the field and get back on track. Look for QB Carson Palmer to spread the ball around in the passing game as he’ll look to his favorite targets in WRs Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. All three receivers have the ability to make a big play anywhere on the field. RB David Johnson has provided a tremendous spark for this offense ever since taking over for an injured RB Chris Johnson. David Johnson not only runs the ball really well, but is a serious threat catching the ball out of the backfield. The Packers’ defense will have a tough time slowing down this offense. The Cardinals will bounce back in a big way on both sides of the ball as they’ll come away with the double digit victory.
Pick: Cardinals -7, 75 units
Jeremy: The Arizona Cardinals welcome the Green Bay Packers to the desert on Sunday as the two teams square off in an NFC Divisional round game. The Packers are coming off a convincing 35-18 win over the Washington Redskins. During that game, QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns while the running game added two more touchdowns. Rodgers will face a tougher task this week against the Cardinals who ranked eighth in the league against the pass and fourth in interceptions. Making matters worse for Rodgers is the injury to #2 receiver Davante Adams who is expected to miss this one with a knee injury. The Cardinals’ defense was on full display in a 38-8 blowout Arizona win in Week 16. In that game, the Packers allowed nine sacks and Rodgers was held to just 151 yards along with a touchdown and a pick. In Green Bay’s Wild Card win over Washington, Rodgers was only sacked once and very rarely hurried as the Packers used a well-balanced offensive attack to get the win. I don’t expect he will have that same luxury in this one. Arizona lost starters Alex Okafor and Corey Redding from their front seven, but they are still deep enough to exploit the Packers’ offensive line. After an incredible regular season in which he threw for nearly 4,700 yards along with 35 touchdowns, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer will look to get his first postseason win. The bye week came at the right time for his trio of receivers as Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd all were dealing with nagging injuries. They will have to be healthy as Green Bay has been solid against the pass this year and allowed the fourth-fewest touchdown passes in the league. However, the Packers could again be without one of their top defensive backs as Sam Shields remains in the league’s concussion protocol and has yet to practice this week leaving him highly questionable for this game. With or without Shields, Arizona will look to RB David Johnson to offset Green Bay’s strong pass defense. Johnson exploded onto the scene after injuries to starters Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington increased his role. Ellington returned in Week 17 but Johnson, who has been dealing with turf toe but is expected to be fine for this game, should continue to get the majority of work out of the backfield. This game will be much closer than the one in Week 16 but Arizona will still prevail. Their defense will put heavy pressure on Rodgers and they simply have more weapons on offense especially without Adams. Look for Palmer and the Cardinals to cover as they advance to the NFC Championship Game.
Pick: Cardinals -7, 50 units
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Jeff: The Seahawks escaped Minnesota with a 10-9 victory as K Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with twenty-two seconds left. The Seahawks’ offense was held in check by the Vikings’ defense. Needless to say the Seahawks will need to be much better this weekend if they hope to defeat the Panthers. At least they won’t have to deal with frigid temperatures again. The Panthers come off their bye looking to make it a perfect 2-0 versus the Seahawks this season. When these two teams met in Seattle in Week 6, the Panthers scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to come away with a 27-23 victory. The Seahawks are a much different team now after struggling earlier in the season. RB Marshawn Lynch looked like a good bet to play last week after putting in full practices. However, he wound up not suiting up versus the Vikings, and didn’t even travel with the team. Lynch has been practicing this week as well, but it seems like anyone’s guess if he plays this weekend. If he plays, he’ll give the Seahawks a nice boost offensively. If he doesn’t suit up again, RB Christine Michael will once again be called upon to handle a majority of the carries. Michael finished with 21 carries for 70 yards last week. QB Russell Wilson failed to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time since Week 10. Even though it is a tough matchup, I’m expecting Wilson to bounce back here as the Panthers have shown some vulnerability against the pass in recent weeks. During the last three weeks of the regular season, Eli Manning threw for four touchdowns passes and Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston threw for over three hundred yards each. Defensively, the Seahawks will need to continue to play well against the run which means slowing down RB Jonathan Stewart. The most critical part of the game plan is to contain QB Cam Newton. They can’t afford to have Newton burn them with his legs. In what will be a close game, look for the Seahawks’ defense to come up with a key stop late to secure the outright victory.
Pick: Seahawks +3, 65 units
Jeremy: The 15-1 Carolina Panthers come off their bye week and begin their playoff run against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle eked out a 10-9 win over the Vikings in one of the coldest games in NFL history. During that game, Seattle struggled to move the ball or score for the first time in their last eight games. Much of it had to do with the weather but some can also be attributed to Minnesota’s defense. This will be another test for Seattle and QB Russell Wilson who was red-hot to end the regular season. Carolina allowed less than 325 total yards per game during the regular season while holding opposing quarterbacks to 235 yards. They are dealing with some depth issues in the secondary as CB Charles Tillman was placed on IR with a torn ACL leaving Josh Norman and a cast of backups to contain what has been one of the league’s most prolific passing attacks of late. It is still unclear who will lead the Seahawks out of the backfield as Marshawn Lynch has been limited in practice and hasn’t played since Week 10. Seattle may be better off without Lynch as Wilson’s success coincided with the enigmatic running back’s injury. The Panthers will be getting top running back Jonathan Stewart back in time for this one. Stewart has missed Carolina’s last three games and while he faces tough sledding against Seattle’s run defense, he should take some of the pressure off QB Cam Newton. Despite missing time, Stewart almost broke the 1,000 yard barrier and will likely see a heavy workload in this one. As solid as Seattle has been defensively, they have struggled against opposing tight ends. With Greg Olsen, the Panthers have one of the best in the league and in their last meeting, Olsen torched the Seahawks for 131 yards. Look for Olsen to be Newton’s primary target again this week. Seattle knocked Carolina out of the playoffs last year and the Panthers will be looking for revenge in this game. Four of their last five games have been decided by four points or less. This will be another tight game that will come down to a late field goal.
Pick: Seahawks +3, 50 units
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Jeff: The Chiefs shut out the Texans 30-0 as they dominated in all facets of the game. The Chiefs now travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots. The Patriots had a much needed bye last week as the two seed in the AFC. This team has been devastated with injuries especially during the second half of the season. The good news for the Patriots is they’ll be getting a key piece to their offense back in WR Julian Edelman. QB Tom Brady looks to be over his sprained ankle he suffered in the regular season finale against the Dolphins. Brady has been on the practice field with no limitations. The Chiefs head into the Divisional round riding an 11-game winning streak. The only negative takeaway from their win last week versus the Texans was the injury to WR Jeremy Maclin. At first it was believed to be a serious knee injury, but after being evaluated it turned out to be a sprained ankle. It appears Maclin’s playing status is up in the air at this point. If he does suit up this weekend, you have to wonder how effective he’ll be since he won’t be 100% healthy. The Patriots have had their struggles in protecting QB Tom Brady. It won’t get any easier against a Chiefs’ defense that gets after the quarterback. The Patriots, however, have had two weeks to prepare and you have to think a majority of their focus was coming up with ways to protect Brady more effectively. Look for the return of Edelman to provide a spark back into this offense. TE Rob Gronkowski will be targeted heavily in this matchup along with Edelman. RB James White has played a critical role in the passing game out of the backfield. I expect White to come up with some big catches while converting third downs in critical parts of the game. As for the Patriots on defense, they’ll need to play well against the run and limit QB Alex Smith‘s running ability when the pocket breaks down. Whether Maclin plays or not, the Chiefs will once again turn to TE Travis Kelce to make plays down the field. The Patriots can’t have Kelce take over this game like he did against the Texans. I’m expecting this to be a tight game throughout, but a late touchdown by the Patriots will be the difference as they’ll win this game by seven.
Pick: Patriots -5.5, 30 units
Jeremy: After losing four out of their last six games to close out the season, the New England Patriots welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Foxboro for an AFC Divisional Round matchup. The Chiefs remained hot and won their 11th game in a row by shutting out the Texans in Houston over Wild Card weekend. Kansas City has been led by a stout defense that has allowed just 11 points per game over the winning streak. Their front seven will create problems for New England’s patchwork offensive line that allowed Tom Brady to be sacked 38 times during the regular season. The good news for the Patriots is that LT Sebastian Vollmer is expected back for this one after missing the season finale with a leg injury. Brady will need all the protection he can get as the Chiefs sacked opposing quarterbacks 48 times during the regular season and added three more against the Texans. The Patriots will also be getting WR Julian Edelman back from a broken foot. Edelman’s return will allow Brady to utilize the short passing game to help slow the Chiefs’ pass rush. A huge question mark popped up mid-week for New England as TE Rob Gronkowski was held out of practice for two days as he dealt with a knee injury. He is expected to play but any limitation to Gronkowski will have major repercussions on New England’s offensive effectiveness. The Chiefs’ offense will rely on their running game and QB Alex Smith who is a prototypical game manager. Smith hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since Week 12 and relies on his defense to put him in great field position. The Chiefs also have a major offensive weapon battling through injury. WR Jeremy Maclin sprained an ankle against the Texans and has been limited in practice. He is expected to play but will most likely serve as a decoy to draw attention away from TE Travis Kelce. Rain is forecast for the area but should be winding down by kickoff and won’t affect either team significantly. This will be a close game featuring two solid defenses and two dominant pass rushes that will ultimately be decided by a late turnover. The Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games while the Chiefs are 8-3 in their last 11.
Pick: Chiefs +5.5, 50 units
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Jeff: The Steelers come off a crazy win at Cincinnati as a 35 yard field goal by Chris Boswell was the difference. The win came with some negative news as QB Ben Roethlisberger injured his shoulder. He left the game against the Bengals, only to come back on the last drive to march the Steelers down the field. WR Antonio Brown left the game late with a concussion. He has been sidelined at practice through Thursday, and his playing status is very much in doubt for Sunday. The Broncos earned a much-needed bye as now they’ll take on a very banged-up Steelers team. QB Peyton Manning has been named the starter for the playoffs after he replaced QB Brock Osweiler in a crucial Week 17 game against the Chargers. Manning only threw nine passes, but it was his mere presence behind center that sparked this team as they went on to defeat the Chargers and lock up the number one seed in the AFC. Given the injury situation with the Steelers, not many people are giving them a chance to keep this game close. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line continued to climb into the weekend. If WR Antonio Brown is unable to go, this team will clearly need other players on the offensive side of the ball to step up in big way if they expect to keep this game close. I think the Steelers have the personnel to do just that. Obviously if Brown suits up, I would like this selection even more. Brown torched the Broncos when these two teams met in Week 15 as he finished with 16 catches for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, the Steelers are solid against the rush which will play into what the Broncos want to do. The Broncos will look to establish the running game with RB C.J. Anderson and RB Ronnie Hillman. As for Manning, he only threw the ball nine times in Week 17 so we truly didn’t see enough from him to see whether he is 100% healthy. The Steelers will need to get pressure on Manning so he can’t get into any type of rhythm in the passing game. The Broncos are 1-8 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.
Pick: Steelers +6.5, 25 units
Jeremy: After knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals in a game in which they saw QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown go down with injuries, the Pittsburgh Steelers head to Mile High to take on the Broncos. Denver announced late last week that Peyton Manning would start this game after he came on in relief of Brock Osweiler in the Broncos’ regular season finale. How effective Manning will be remains to be seen although he is generally better with more rest. Denver’s defense and running game will be the keys to this game. With the injuries facing Roethlisberger and Brown combined with the likelihood that running back DeAngelo Williams is expected to miss another game with a foot injury, the Steelers’ once high-flying offense will struggle to move the ball. Without Williams, Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Toussaint split carries and gained 123 yards against the Bengals. It will likely be another two-headed attack this week against the third-ranked run defense. The last time these teams met, the Steelers got the win 34-27 with Roethlisberger throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns against a depleted Broncos’ defense. Denver will have all its personnel for this one and after allowing 18 points per game during the regular season should keep it close to that total to start the playoffs. Manning’s last start came in a 29-13 Week 10 loss to Kansas City in which he completed just five of 20 pass attempts while throwing four interceptions. On the year, Manning has 17 interceptions and only nine touchdown passes. In an attempt to minimize Manning’s turnover potential, Denver will look to establish the run early with Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson. The two backs combined for nearly 1,600 yards with Hillman generally getting the start but the workload being split pretty evenly. Pittsburgh has been tough against the run this year, ranking 5th in the league and allowing the second-fewest rushing touchdowns. Manning is likely to throw a bad interception or two and his predictability will allow the Steelers’ defense to focus on the run game. If Manning struggles, Brock Osweiler may not be available due to a knee injury leaving rookie Travis Siemian as Manning’s backup. Given Manning’s propensity for injury and inconsistent play this season, that situation bears watching. Pittsburgh’s offense won’t put up huge numbers in this one but they will keep it within a touchdown.
Pick: Steelers +6.5, 50 units
Packers at Cardinals (Total: 50 points)
Jeff: This point total is the highest on the board this weekend as people believe the Packers’ offense is back after scoring 35 points against the Redskins last weekend. I just don’t see this game being a shootout as I think the Packers will revert back to their struggles protecting QB Aaron Rodgers as they face a very strong defense in the Cardinals. I don’t think we’ll see another eight-sack performance by the Cardinals defense like we saw in Week 16, but the Packers will find it difficult to move the football with any consistency. To make matters worse for this Packers’ offense, WR Davante Adams will most likely be out for this game after suffering a knee injury in the wild card round. The Cardinals’ defense is coming off their worst performance of the season as the Seahawks dismantled them in Week 17 36-6. This unit has been itching to get back on the field after that dud versus Seattle. I think they come out flying to the ball on Saturday night. In the end, I think the total is too high as I don’t see this game going over that number. Look for the Cardinals to win this game 30-17 as the game will stay under the posted total.
Pick: Under 50 points, 25 units
Seahawks at Panthers (Total: 44.5 points)
Jeremy: The Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers face off in a matchup of the two most talented dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. Carolina QB Cam Newton had an MVP-caliber season passing for over 3,800 yards and 35 touchdowns while rushing for 636 yards along with 10 touchdowns as the Panthers averaged more than 31 points per game. For the Seahawks, Russell Wilson closed out the regular season on one of the hottest streaks in history throwing for 24 touchdowns and only one interception over the last seven weeks. During that stretch, Seattle averaged 32 points per game. They are coming off a 10-9 win over Minnesota in the Wild Card round in a game that was played in brutal sub-zero temperatures. While the weather will be cool in Charlotte, it won’t be anything like last week which means we should see the Seahawks’ scoring improve. The Panthers are thin in the secondary and Charles Tillman‘s absence will create opportunities for Wilson to look downfield for Doug Baldwin or whoever isn’t being covered by Josh Norman. Carolina has been stingy on defense allowing 19 points per game while Seattle led the league in scoring against giving up just 17 points per game. Carolina is likely to get a key piece back with RB Jonathan Stewart who scored two touchdowns in the last meeting between these teams. Seattle is tough against the run but if Stewart can draw some attention away from Newton, it will open up the field for Newton to make some plays, especially to tight end Greg Olsen. These teams met in Seattle in Week six with the Panthers getting the win 27-23. I’m expecting the total scoring in this one to be in the same range.
Pick: Over 44.5 points, 20 units
You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4 and Jeremy @jdwardwell5.
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