NFL Playoff Preview: Can Packers avoid another Cardinals beatdown?
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
PACKERS AT A GLANCE
How they got here: A 6-0 start that had Aaron Rodgers looking like an MVP candidate once more turned into a 10-6 finish — even with the Miracle in Motown dialed up by Rodgers in the insane, last-season win over the Detroit Lions. That didn’t propel the offense back to the heights we’ve expected from this group, but last week’s wild-card win over the Washington Redskins might have. The Packers used tempo to frustrate them, catching them offsides, with too many men on the field and unable to substitute to stop the Packers’ suddenly forceful run game.
One of those Packers losses came in Week 16 to these Cardinals by a 38-8 score. Perhaps it was a bit misleading because of two defensive scores, but there was no doubt that this was an avalanche either way. The Cardinals sacked Rodgers eight times in 36 dropbacks and held the Packers to 2.8 yards per play.
Key player: Eddie Lacy was moderately effective in the first Cardinals matchup, rushing 12 times for 60 yards and catching a 28-yard TD pass. He also did work in the wild-card game, bashing through Redskins defenders for a 12-63-1 rushing day, even though he hasn’t had his finest season and has been dealing with a rib injury. Lacy and James Starks can help change the tempo and give the Cardinals something else to think about after they pinned their ears back and mauled Rodgers last time. In games played in December and beyond, Lacy has done some of his best work (12 TDs in 17 games).
The Packers might still be shorthanded and a little banged up on the offensive line, but they had a good week last week. One other potential factor: Head referee Clete Blakeman has a reputation of letting O-lineman get away with a little more than others do, so perhaps the Packers’ patchwork group can try to get a little physical — maybe even beyond the whistle — with the Cardinals’ very good front.
Why they’ll win: Rodgers never panicked after falling behind by two scores last week, and he’s capable of delivering a vintage performance against a confident unit that might assume it has his number after the last matchup. As Rodgers pointed out, he thinks the pressure is all on the Cardinals — and he might be right. The Packers have a good defense, not a great one, but it’s good enough to keep this a close game and give Rodgers a chance to go win it.
Why they’ll lose: There’s no such thing as momentum in the NFL. What happened last week in D.C. is one thing, and what will happen in Glendale is likely to be something else. The Cardinals shut down Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams last time, and Adams is almost certain not to play with a sprained MCL. That means Jared Abbrederis is likely Rodgers’ No. 3 wide receiver. Left tackle David Bakhtiari is still a question to return, and we saw what happened when he missed the first Cardinals game. It wasn’t pretty. Not having cornerback Sam Shields also would be trouble against the Cardinals’ vertical speed at receiver.
Keep in mind: Rodgers, 32, will be playing his 14th postseason game on Saturday. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, 36, is playing his third postseason game and his first in more than six years. Doesn’t that count for something?
CARDINALS AT A GLANCE
How they got here: Despite a few hiccups early on, the Cardinals raced to the front in the NFC West and made a statement in the division with a Week 10 win over the Seattle Seahawks, 39-32, essentially clinching the division. That victory was in the midst of a nine-game win streak, but the Cardinals couldn’t make it 10, getting thrashed by the Seahawks in Week 17.
That left a bad taste in the Cardinals’ mouths the past two weeks, even though the Cardinals were good enough this season to go 13-3 and earn a first-round bye. The loss of defensive back Tyrann Mathieu notwithstanding, the Cardinals have built a great defense and can threaten people offensively with the Palmer-led vertical passing attack and the underrated running of rookie back David Johnson.
Key player: Patrick Peterson is the key cog in the Cardinals’ great secondary, especially now with Mathieu out for the season. And it will be fascinating to see how the Cardinals employ Peterson this time around. In the previous matchup against the Packers, he mostly stayed on his side of the field in zone and only shadowed receivers when they were in man-under. Peterson went into the slot, though, based on formation and could do the same this week more often. Will he shadow Cobb? That remains to be seen. But it would seem more likely with Adams out — who else would they want Peterson covering? Jones hasn’t been the same player he was early in the season, and though Peterson likely would be more effective guarding a receiver of Jones’ skill set than he would with a quick player such as Cobb, the Cardinals really could make life tough on the Packers if they opt to put Peterson on Cobb and force Rodgers to go elsewhere.
Why they’ll win: They clearly looked like the better team last time around, and the Week 17 loss was a reminder to Bruce Arians’ club that they still have lots to prove, likely providing the coach any motivational fodder he needed on the extra week of rest. The Cardinals likely needed a mental break more than anything, but they know what’s in front of them — especially Palmer. He has had an exceptional season and has waited for this moment for years, but especially since he missed so much time with a very talented Cardinals team a year ago. He could feast against a good but hardly world-beating Packers secondary.
Why they’ll lose: If the Cardinals’ pass rush can’t get home again like it did in the first matchup, it will require the secondary to be very sharp. Teams have picked on Justin Bethel since Mathieu went down, and Rodgers has had to go to his secondary and tertiary options all season out of necessity. Rodgers has a tremendous postseason record, with some of his finest games ever in January and beyond.
Keep in mind: Twenty-six percent of the Cardinals’ sacks in the 2015 season came in that Week 16 game. Calais Campbell had 2.5 sacks in that game and 2.5 in his remaining 15 games. Dwight Freeney had three sacks vs. the Packers last time and five in his other 10 games.
OUTLOOK
The Packers looked good for the first time in about 10 games last week, but let’s not kid ourselves. They remain the underdog in this game as much for the fact that the Cardinals owned them three weeks ago as for the fact that the Cardinals, a few head-scratching losses aside, clearly have been the better team this season. Can Rodgers deliver another postseason gem? Of course he can, and the Cardinals know it. But Rodgers has not been perfect in the playoffs — remember the 2011 divisional game against the Giants or the 2013 wild-card game against the 49ers? — and the Packers are just too short-handed at receiver. Richard Rodgers could be an X-factor, and the Cardinals allowed the sixth-most receptions and ninth-most yards to tight ends this season. But we think Palmer and receivers Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd will be too much for a slightly beleaguered secondary. Watch for Johnson, too, who has helped them as a receiver and runner. The Packers will put up a much better fight than last time but will need some luck on their side to come out a winner.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
