Matchups: Divisional Round Matchups

Saturday Football

Kansas City @ New England

The Divisional Round opener has a lowly 42-point total with host New England favored by 4.5. At just over 23 points, the Patriots’ team total seems (overly?) aggressive against a shutdown Kansas City defense that’s held its last five opponents to offensive point totals of 0, 10, 13, 14, and 3. The Chiefs haven’t yielded more than 22 offensive points since Week 4. … The return to health of Sebastian Vollmer, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola upgrades the outlook for Tom Brady, but pass protection remains a big concern after the Pats struggled to keep Brady upright down the stretch, so much so that Bill Belichick began making arch-conservative decisions designed to “protect” his sputtering offense. A pass-heavy approach is still likely on New England’s side, in an attempt to capitalize on Edelman’s return and get the football out of Brady’s hands quickly. I think we can project a lot of pass attempts, but the probability of Brady posting a big box-score game seems low. In the final three months of the season, these were the top pocket passers the Chiefs faced with their weekly fantasy finishes in parentheses: Philip Rivers (QB27, QB28), Derek Carr (QB23, QB18), Matthew Stafford (QB23), Jay Cutler (QB12). … The Patriots’ Week 16 game plan against the Jets may provide the best blueprint for forecasting running back usage versus Kansas City. It was a close game in which New England faced a run-tough, 3-4 man-coverage defense similar to the Chiefs’. Passing-down specialist James White logged a 38% snap rate and seven touches against Gang Green, Brandon Bolden handled 14 touches on 29% of the downs, and early-down banger Steven Jackson carried seven times on a 16% snap rate. Both carry low floors and limited projectable upside, but White and to a lesser extent Bolden make some sense as DFS punts on another painfully-weak running back slate.

Contract-year SS Eric Berry was one of the best coverage safeties in football this season, often matching up with tight ends man to man. He was the central figure in Kansas City’s allowance of the NFL’s fifth fewest catches (66), fourth fewest yards (652), and third fewest touchdowns (3) to tight ends. Rob Gronkowski, of course, can be a matchup-proof freak of nature when fed voluminously, and he has a chance to be if Brady indeed fires off 40-plus pass attempts. Still, there’s a legitimate argument to be made for Greg Olsen as the top DFS tight end play this weekend, ahead of Gronk. The fact that Gronkowski is suddenly battling both back and knee injuries seemingly locks in Olsen as the highest-floor tight end on the slate. … Expected to be near-full-go in his return from an eight-week foot injury, Edelman’s crisp route running will cause matchup issues for Chiefs slot CB Ron Parker — a former safety — and rookie press-man LCB Marcus Peters, who has playmaking ability but is exploitable in coverage. Kansas City’s defensive backs are big, physical, and rangy, whereas Edelman is small (5’10/195) and twitchy. Edelman may immediately resume serving as New England’s primary means of moving the chains. … Brandon LaFell gets the toughest draw against RCB Sean Smith, the Chiefs’ top cover corner. Smith (6’4/214) possesses the requisite size to overwhelm LaFell (6’3/211), forcing Brady to work underneath and inside the numbers. … Danny Amendola works in those areas and had his best regular season games against man-coverage teams Philadelphia (7-62-1), Buffalo (9-117), the Jets (8-86-1), and Indianapolis (7-105). Especially if Edelman doesn’t get all of his separation ability back right away following foot surgery, Amendola could be a sleeper to lead the Pats in Divisional Round catches. Amendola will run most of his routes at Parker.

As 4.5-point dogs in Foxboro, the Chiefs’ team total is just under 19 points. … The Pats’ defense that shows up Saturday won’t resemble the units Bill Belichick has been forced to trot out recently. FS Devin McCourty (ankle) missed two of the final three regular season games. RE Chandler Jones (hip), WLB Dont’a Hightower (knee), and NT Sealver Siliga (personal) missed Week 17. SS Pat Chung (foot) missed Week 16. All are expected to be full go against the Chiefs. Despite the injuries, New England wrapped the season ranked 13th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. A tough matchup combined with Kansas City’s low team total indicates Alex Smith offers limited DFS appeal this week. … Spencer Ware has capitalized on positive script in each of the Chiefs’ last two games, out-touching Charcandrick West 32 to 23 with goal-line scores in both. As a 4.5-point road dog, Kansas City projects to be in more negative-flow situations this week. Ware has played more in the passing game than West recently, however, staying on the field for more pass-blocking snaps and running more routes out of the backfield. Neither Chiefs running back is in a great spot, but Ware has become the better fantasy bet.

Despite suffering a “mild” high ankle sprain in Kansas City’s Wild Card win over Houston, Jeremy Maclin is tentatively expected to play. Maclin’s in-game effectiveness is a question mark, while he can expect to face shadow coverage from Malcolm Butler on both slot and perimeter routes. Likely to be short of 100% in a mediocre-at-best matchup, Maclin is a dicey DFS bet this week. … Chris Conley was the playing-time beneficiary when Maclin missed Week 7 against the Steelers. Conley’s snaps skyrocketed to 88%, finishing at 6-63-1 on seven targets. No. 2 wideout Albert Wilson‘s role held steady on 91% of the downs and six targets, nabbing three for 71 yards. 6-foot-2, 213-pound Conley is an otherworldly athlete, blazing 4.35 with an absurd 45-inch vertical at the Combine. The Chiefs haven’t been shy about funneling Wilson occasional bubble screens and jet sweeps. One of Kansas City’s complementary receivers could turn in a useful box score should Maclin sit or be limited. Otherwise, Conley and Wilson are hard to trust. … Travis Kelce overcame a tough draw for a monster Wild Card Round (8-128) against the Texans. He get another difficult one against the Pats, who permitted the NFL’s fourth fewest receptions (64) and third fewest yards (630) to opposing tight ends in 2015. On Saturday, Kelce will see a ton of SLB Jamie Collins and SS Pat Chung in coverage. It’s also possible Belichick prioritizes stopping Kelce as a focus of New England’s defensive game plan. Kelce always offers upside on sheer talent, but there are reasons to believe he could be a DFS trap this week.

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Chiefs 17

Green Bay @ Arizona

In Saturday night’s rematch of Arizona’s 38-8 Week 16 trouncing of Green Bay, Cards-Pack has a 50-point total — highest of the Divisional Round — with Bruce Arians‘ club favored by seven. The Cardinals have a mouth-watering 28.5-point team total. … Easily this week’s top DFS running back play, David Johnson returns from a bye after piling up touch totals of 24, 24, 33, 12, and 14 in Arizona’s last five games. The Cards scaled back Johnson’s Weeks 16-17 workloads due to a blowout win over the Packers and Arians’ decision to rest starters versus Seattle. Green Bay showed zero ability to contain Johnson’s all-purpose game in December, as he totaled 127 yards and a touchdown despite not playing in the final 29 minutes due to a 24-0 lead. I like Johnson’s chances of approaching 20 touches this time around. The Packers are vulnerable in run defense, ceding 527 yards and three TDs on 100 carries (5.27 YPC) to enemy running backs in their last five games. … Back from turf toe, Andre Ellington logged touch counts of 8 and 3 in Weeks 16-17 and should be healthier after a week of rest. Ellington could push for double-digit touches as a change-up back if the Packers keep this game close. Arizona’s backfield still belongs to Johnson. … Green Bay is No. 6 in pass-defense DVOA, but DC Dom Capers‘ group has faced one of the league’s weakest quarterback schedules, and gave up productive fantasy weeks to Carson Palmer (QB10), Derek Carr (QB13), Teddy Bridgewater (QB8), Matthew Stafford (QB14), Cam Newton (QB1), and Peyton Manning (340 yards) in the season’s second half. Facing these same Packers, Kirk Cousins was the highest-scoring quarterback on the Wild Card slate. In RCB Sam Shields (concussion) and fill-in RCB Quinten Rollins (quad), two of Green Bay’s top-four corners are battling injury. LCB Damarious Randall dealt with a thigh/groin injury ahead of Week 18. Palmer should be viewed as the highest-floor DFS quarterback play in the Divisional Round.

Palmer’s target distribution over the last month: Michael Floyd 28; John Brown 26; Johnson 25; Larry Fitzgerald 21; J.J. Nelson and Darren Fells 8; Jermaine Gresham 3; Jaron Brown 2; Ellington 1. … Floyd was a big-play machine in these clubs’ Week 16 meeting (6-111), most memorably separating from Rollins on a 47-yard catch and run. At 6’3/220, Floyd is a good bet to win jump balls against smaller Shields (5’11/184), Casey Hayward (5’11/192), Randall (5’11/196), and Rollins (5’11/195). … Brown emerged from Week 16 with a 3-25-1 receiving line. Green Bay did a good job of limiting exposive pass plays this season, permitting the NFL’s fourth fewest completions of 20-plus yards. A similar player schematically, DeSean Jackson was held to 17 yards on five targets in last week’s Redskins loss to Green Bay. Brown’s 4.34 speed combined with the Packers’ cornerback injuries keep Smokey’s upside intact. … In order, Fitzgerald’s target totals from Palmer over the past four weeks are 6, 5, 5, and 5. Fitzgerald has four fewer Palmer targets than running back David Johnson in that span. Fitzgerald also has the toughest matchup in Arizona’s wideout corps versus Packers slot CB Hayward, PFF’s No. 21 overall cover corner among 118 qualifiers. Fitzgerald managed 4-29-1 when these teams met in Week 16 and hasn’t hit 60 yards since November. … Fourth receiver Nelson runs 4.28, and I’d guess he plays around 12 snaps and sees two or three targets against the Packers, all of the deep-ball variety. Nelson caught 11 passes this season, seven of which went for 20-plus yards. Nelson is a long shot, but he is sure to be very lightly owned in DFS and could conceivably pay dividends on one play.

As seven-point dogs in the desert, the Packers’ team total is 21.5 points. Green Bay’s offense managed eight points and 178 net yards in these clubs’ Week 16 date. Aaron Rodgers took eight sacks and committed three turnovers before being pulled for Scott Tolzien due to concerns over Rodgers’ safety. I’m not always a believer in first-matchup data as predictive, but in this instance I think it pretty strongly applies. The game happened only three weeks ago. Beyond Green Bay’s five-possession scoring streak against a leaky Redskins defense in the Wild Card Round, the state of neither team has meaningfully changed. The game is again in Arizona. The Cardinals are the exact sort of team with which the Packers aren’t built to compete, playing strict man coverage, blitzing relentlessly, and stamping out the run. I liked the Packers’ offense to excel in last week’s win over Washington. I think they’ll revert to failure in Arizona. … Cardinals DC James Bettcher‘s unit played shutdown run defense this season, grading No. 2 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and holding enemy running backs to 3.71 yards per carry. In Week 16, Eddie Lacy salvaged his box score with a 28-yard garbage-time receiving touchdown. James Starks logged 11 yards on three touches. The Divisional Round outlook for Green Bay’s backfield is bleak. This is obvious speculation, but it would make sense for Mike McCarthy to dial up screen passes to Lacy and Starks, serving as blitz beaters against the aggressiveness of Arizona. Ultimately, it’s tough to imagine either Packers running back having a big game in this spot.

Rodgers’ targets over the last five weeks: James Jones 51; Randall Cobb 38; Davante Adams 27; Richard Rodgers 21; Starks and Jared Abbrederis 10; John Kuhn 6; Lacy 5. … Jones mostly avoided Patrick Peterson‘s coverage in Week 16, but still emerged with pedestrian results (5-46-0) and seems likely to draw more of Peterson in the rematch after leading Green Bay in targets four straight weeks. Peterson is capable of eliminating Jones, forcing Rodgers to lean on pass catchers he doesn’t trust as much. … Cobb was even more rarely covered by Peterson in Week 16, but failed to capitalize (3-15-0) with slot corner Jerraud Powers on him. Adams’ (knee) absence will lead to more slot work for Abbrederis and increased perimeter snaps for Cobb, upping Cobb’s exposure to Peterson on the boundary. The Packers desperately need a breakout game for Cobb after he failed to clear 75 receiving yards in all but one of Green Bay’s last nine games. Expect to continue to see Cobb utilized frequently on I-formation running back plays. At wide receiver, Cobb’s matchup remains daunting. … TE Rodgers did nothing (1-2-0) in Week 16 and has topped 30 yards in just two of Green Bay’s last eight games. Arizona ended 2015 as Football Outsiders’ seventh toughest team in tight end coverage, though the Cardinals did allow the sixth most receptions and 14th most yards to the position. Still, Rodgers has settled in as a touchdown-or-bust dart throw. … Abbrederis is the sneakiest DFS play on Green Bay’s side. Abbrederis projects to play around 70% of the Packers’ snaps and is the wide receiver least likely to face Peterson. Although Abbrederis has average size (6’1/195) and speed (4.50), he’s been praised by Rodgers as a “great route runner” and could emerge as a high-volume target if Green Bay struggles to run the football and falls behind, and Cobb and Jones can’t get open.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 27, Packers 17

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