Post-Season Fantasy Football Guide: Divisional Round Tiers
If you played any DFS contests in the Wild-card round you know that unless you had the Chiefs D/ST (they scored 29 points), you probably didn’t get very far up the leaderboard. Sometimes that happens in these short slates. One defense or a certain player will score a ton of fantasy points leaving those who didn’t roster them behind.
We’re moving on to the Divisional Round.
Here’s my automatic disclaimer for this column: since these are “tiers”, they are not meant to be linear ranks. Each “tier” separates the relative strength of play and the player order inside of the relative tier is not necessarily a direct rank.
This is the final week of fantasy football with a decent sized player pool until the 2016 pre-season and it’s shaping up to be a fairly strong slate in terms of strength of plays. Let’s get to it.
Editor’s Note: Stay up to date on all the breaking news at the Rotoworld Player News page, and follow @Rotoworld_FB and @GrahamBarfield on Twitter.
Quarterbacks
Tier One
Cam Newton: No one should be shocked that he’s here. Newton threw a touchdown pass on 7.1% of his attempts during the regular season, the highest efficiency mark in the league. Cam also added a rushing touchdown and/or 40-plus yards on the ground in all but three games this season — so even in a tough matchup against Seattle’s No. 3 ranked DVOA pass defense, he may have the highest floor of any signal caller on the slate.
Carson Palmer: When Green Bay and Arizona met in Week 16, Carson Palmer completed 18 of his 27 attempts for 265 yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals took their foot off of the gas in a 38-8 demolition. Expected to be without CB Sam Shields (concussion) for a fifth straight game, Green Bay has allowed 265-plus passing yards in all but one game without Shields. Now they get to face Palmer who just finished up a career-best season in yards per-game (291.9). Just as a pricing note for DFS: Palmer is the highest-priced option on FanDuel ($8900)but is the third cheapest option on DraftKings ($6500).
Tom Brady: Below are Brady’s per-game splits in his nine games with and seven games without Julian Edelman (foot) this season via Rotoviz’s Game Splits App. One of the Patriots main drive sustainers, Edelman is set to return this week after a nine week absence. With Edelman Brady averaged: 27.8-of-41 passing, 337.2 yards (8.4 yards/attempt), and 2.67 touchdowns per-game; Without Edelman: 21.6-of-36.3 passing, 246.7 yards (6.9 yards/attempt), and 1.71 touchdowns per-game.
Russell Wilson: Unlike last week, this slate is chock full of solid quarterback options. Wilson really could be in Tier Two, but I’m not ready to put him there after one bad game in sub-freezing temperatures against Minnesota. Seattle was lucky to escape the Wild-card round with a win, but there is plenty of reason to expect a bounce back for Wilson in the Divisional Round. Last week’s game against the Vikings marked the first time Wilson has failed to throw multiple passing touchdowns in a game since Week 10. The Panthers have surely been stout against the pass all year, but they finished the season by allowing a four-touchdown performance to Eli Manning in Week 15 and back-to-back 300-plus yard outings to Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston. If Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) misses again, the offense will be on Wilson’s shoulders for another game.
Tier Two
Aaron Rodgers: He was solid against a lackluster Washington secondary last week (210 yards and two touchdowns on 36 attempts), but now gets the Cardinals No. 4 ranked DVOA pass defense that held him to 151 yards and one touchdown (on 28 attempts) just three weeks ago. Anyway you slice it, the Packers’ passing offense does not matchup well at all across the board against the Cardinals. I’ll also note here that Rodgers has not eclipsed 300 yards passing since Week 10.
Ben Roethlisberger: Even in a tough matchup against Denver, Roethlisberger would be in Tier One if it weren’t for a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. I’ll update this section once we have a bit more information on Antonio Brown (concussion) and Roethlisberger’s own availability later in the week. One thing to keep in mind is Big Ben lit the Broncos’ stout secondary on fire back in Week 15 for 380 yards and three touchdowns, but he wasn’t dealing a painful shoulder injury and that game was in the cozy confines of Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is on the road in the Divisional Round.
Tier Three
Alex Smith: As I noted last week, Smith has a decent floor in fantasy but his ceiling is very, very limited. His potential for a fantasy scoring outburst will be further dampened if Jeremy Maclin (ankle) can’t play against the Patriots. I’ll update Smith’s analysis once we have more news on Maclin.
Peyton Manning: In every start Manning made in Week 1-10, he threw at least one interception and had five multiple interception outings. Maybe the extended absence dealing with a plantar fascia injury has helped, or maybe he’s still playing at significantly weakened powers. Either way, it’s hard to see Manning posting massive numbers even against Pittsburgh’s No. 15 ranked DVOA pass defense. I’d rather play Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders in DFS this weekend.
Running Backs
Tier One
David Johnson: The clear-cut No. 1 option this week, Johnson finished the last five weeks of the regular season as the top-scoring running back (22.6 PPR points per-game). The last time the Cardinals and Packers played (in Week 16), David Johnson rushed for 9-39-1 (4.33 YPC) and added 3-88 (on six targets) receiving in a 38-8 Arizona route. Johnson easily has the highest fantasy ceiling on this four-game slate and will be chalk on DFS sites, for excellent reason.
Tier Two
Jonathan Stewart: As noted by 4for4’s Chris Raybon, before his Week 14 foot injury, Stewart carried the ball 20-plus times in eight consecutive games. During that eight game streak (Week 6-13), Stewart handled 36-of-60 (60 percent) red zone carries while Cam Newton had 15 and Mike Tolbert carried the ball inside of the 20-yard line seven times. The main rub with Stewart this week is his matchup with a Seattle defense that just held Adrian Peterson to 23-45 rushing in the Wild-card round – but as you will continue reading below – this week’s slate is completely devoid of running back options after David Johnson and Stewart himself.
Tier Three
C.J. Anderson/Ronnie Hillman: You know this is another bad week for running back options when only two running backs (Johnson and Stewart) make up the opening two tiers. In any event, here’s how Anderson and Hillman split the backfield in Denver since Week 12: Anderson (158 snaps, 50 attempts, and 10 targets) and Hillman (231 snaps, 83 attempts, and 16 targets). During that span, Hillman rushed for 83-335-2 (4.0 yards per carry) while Anderson was far more productive: 50-337-4 (6.7 YPC).Anderson did miss a game during that six game stretch, but its clear Denver is fine splitting the touches right down the middle despite Anderson’s superior effectiveness.
Spencer Ware: Here’s a great stat via Evan Silva on the Chiefs backfield split and effectiveness over the past two weeks: Spencer Ware has 32 touches, has played on 53 percent of snaps, and averaged 4.47 yards per carry while Charcandrick West has 23 touches, has played on 42 percent of snaps, and is averaging a paltry 2.86 YPC. Ware has sharply out-played West in his opportunities, and has five red zone carries to West’s two over the last two weeks. Ware will likely lead the Chiefs backfield in carries against a Patriots front that stiffened over the final five weeks of the regular season allowing 124-474-0 (3.82 YPC) to Eagles, Texans, Titans, Jets, and Dolphins backs.
Fitzgerald Toussaint/Jordan Todman: It’s looking likely that DeAngelo Williams (foot) will miss his second straight game in the Divisional Round, leaving Toussaint and Jordan Todman alone in the backfield against Denver. Toussaint out-snapped (49:14) and out-touched Todman (21:11) in the Wild-card round against the Bengals. Toussaint also received eight targets (on 28 routes) out of the backfield while Todman didn’t see a target (he only ran one pass route). So, we have an indication that the Steelers prefer Toussaint in the pass game over Todman and when the Steelers and Broncos played in Week 15, the Steelers were 77.3 percent pass-heavy. While Denver finished the regular season ranked No. 4 in Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA, Toussaint is the better fantasy bet over Todman in the Divisional Round due to his pass-game ability.
Christine Michael: I’ll update this item later in the week, but Seahawks head coach called Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) “day-to-day“ on Tuesday. This was a week after Lynch practiced in full for the Wild-card round, but did not travel with the team. In turn, Christine Michael played on 67.2 percent of the Seahawks snaps against Minnesota, logged 22 touches, and rushed for 21-70 (3.33 YPC). Fred Jackson handled the ball just three times while Bryce Brown didn’t play a single snap.
Eddie Lacy/James Starks: Here’s how the Packers allocated running back snaps in the Wild-card round against Washington: James Starks (33), John Kuhn (30), and Eddie Lacy (27). Starks and Lacy also nearly split touches perfectly even (13:12). So we have a running back by committee against the No. 2 ranked DVOA run defense that allowed just 77.6 rushing yards per contest (10th fewest) in the regular season’s final five weeks. You’re on your own with these two in the Divisional Round.
James White: Full disclosure here: I really don’t know what to make of White against the Chiefs. In parentheses are his targets over the last six weeks (5, 13, 6, 8, 5, 3) – the only issue is he hasn’t seen more than three carries in a game all year. Rarely do I feel comfortable advocating for pass catching-only backs, but the fact is the Chiefs allowed just 70.8 rushing yards per-game to opposing backs in their final five regular season games (fifth fewest). They did just allow 99 yards to Alfred Blue in the Wild-card round, but I’m not overly confident in Steven Jackson’s abilities at this point in his career. There is more on Jackson below. Either way, White has played 34-plus percent of snaps in every game since Week 12 and is the superior fantasy bet in the Pats’ backfield in the Divisional Round.
Tier Four
Charcandrick West: As mentioned in the Spencer Ware section above, West has been sharply out-played over the past two weeks and has seen his snaps decrease drastically over the past three games (89.3%, 54.4%, and 28.6%). West is also no longer the Chiefs lone passing down back, either. Ware ran 12 pass routes against the Texans in the Wild-card round to West’s seven.
Steven Jackson: Jackson’s first two rushing lines with the Patriots were poor at best (7-15 and 14-35-1) and it’s worth pondering whether or not the 32-year-old has anything left in his legs after 2,764 career carries.
Andre Ellington: Saw 11 touches in the final two weeks of the season and has snap shares of just 16.9% and 33.3% in his those two games.
Brandon Bolden: Has 16, 10, 9, and 9 carries in his last four games but the only way you could even entertain using him is if Steven Jackson weren’t around.
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