Around the League: Overvalued Players: NL East
We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division, players whose arrows are pointed up heading into 2016. Now we turn our attention to those players who may provide more sizzle than steak for fantasy owners in the upcoming season. We start in the National League East.
We’re getting closer to pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, so be sure to keep refreshing Rotoworld’s constantly-updating player news page for all the latest. And while you’re at it, follow @Rotoworld_BB and @nate_grimm if you are on Twitter.
Giancarlo Stanton OF, Marlins
Fortune favors the bold, but drafting Stanton as the third outfielder off the board straddles the line between bold and reckless. Sure, if all the stars align his prodigious power gives him a fantasy upside matched by none, but he’s also coming off a hamate bone injury, which historically hinders power production, and he’s only eclipsed 123 games in a season once in the past four years. The broken bone in his left hand limited him to 74 games in 2015.
In theory, smart owners could have actually benefited from an overcorrection this spring as fantasy players shied away from the 26-year-old, but he’s currently being drafted behind only Mike Trout and Bryce Harper among outfielders. That’s ahead of a host of safer players including Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock and Starling Marte, among others. Perhaps Stanton is part of the select group of players that can still be effective coming off hamate bone surgery, but at that price I don’t want to pay to find out.
Travis d’Arnaud C, Mets
When you’re a former first-round pick traded for a Cy Young winner — twice — it’s hard not to be overvalued. And d’Arnaud delivered on promise last year, hitting 12 homers with a .268/.340/.485 line in 67 games. Even so, a fractured right pinkie and, later, a left elbow sprain kept him from reaching his full potential in 2015.
Fantasy owners seem to be buying into the idea that he’ll break through the glass ceiling this year. In drafts, d’Arnaud is the sixth catcher off the board, behind only Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann and Russell Martin. That’s a lot of love for a guy who has consistently struggled to stay on the field and isn’t expected to keep up with those rate stats over a full season. D’Arnaud should certainly be drafted as a starting catcher in standard leagues, but expectations should be tempered as well.
Trea Turner SS, Nationals
There was a point this winter, when Ian Desmond was afloat in the free agency ocean and the Nationals had no discernible second baseman to speak of, that rostering Trea Turner seemed like a good idea. After all, despite an underwhelming MLB debut at the end of the 2015 season, Turner is a former first-round pick who tore up the minor leagues and made it to the majors before his 23rd birthday.
And then everything changed. The Nationals signed Daniel Murphy and Stephen Drew on the same day, and all signs point to Danny Espinosa, not Turner, as the Nats’ starting shortstop on Opening Day. There likely will be a role for Turner in Washington, D.C., before the year’s end, but it’s impossible to say what or how valuable it might be. As such, it’s hard to justify drafting him at all outside of the deepest of leagues.
Ender Inciarte OF, Braves
Inciarte, a perfectly fine player, seems like a weird guy to pick on — like, who is overvaluing Ender Inciarte? The answer is, probably more people than you think. That’s what happens when you put together a decent year and then get traded in a deal that was viewed publicly as an overwhelming win for your new team.
Atop a surprisingly potent Diamondbacks lineup, Inciarte batted .303/.338/.408 with six homers, 21 stolen bases, 45 RBI and 73 runs scored in 132 games last season. His new team, the Braves, is much less attractive. Even projected for a huge role with his new club, Inciarte’s counting stats will take a hit given the talent deficiency (sorry, Freddie Freeman) around him. If he has less batted-ball luck, his rate stats and stolen bases will decline as well — walking, a moderately important skill for a leadoff hitter, isn’t one of Inciarte’s strong suits. Put it all together and much of the shine wears off the Braves’ new toy.
Daniel Murphy 2B, Nationals
Murphy made himself some money last October, famously hitting seven home runs through the Mets’ first two postseason series and taking him NLCS MVP honors in the process. In a sense, it was a continuation of a regular season in which he hit a career-high 14 homers with 73 RBI, his second-highest single-season mark. On the biggest stage, Murphy shined.
That may be the last memory we have of Murphy, but it shouldn’t be the lasting one. If anything, the 30-year-old made his name on hitting for average and stealing bases, not mashing balls out of the park, prior to 2015. Those steals have disappeared and the Nationals’ home park isn’t great for left-handed power, meaning fantasy owners expecting some former version or, worse, the postseason version of Murphy may end up disappointed. He’s best left for someone dreaming of days gone by.
Erick Aybar SS, Braves
Aybar has long been the Cory Matthews of fantasy shortstops: safe, reliable, and a surprisingly productive player when it’s all said and done. Sure, he’s stood out in specific categories at times — he hit .312/.353/.423 in 2009; he stole 30 bases and swatted 10 home runs in 2011 — but with Aybar, it’s usually about steady output.
That was then, this is now. Aybar is no longer in a potent Angels lineup, expected instead to be one of the better offensive players on a rebuilding Braves team. He’s also set to turn 32 years old in a couple days, and his stolen base production has slowed steadily since that 2011 season. If he were still an Angel, Aybar might have gotten by again this year on name recognition, and he might have remained a solid fantasy player. That won’t cut it anymore.
Ben Revere OF, Nationals
Revere did his thing again in 2015, stealing 31 bases while batting .306 with basically no power output. But he added a new facet to his fantasy skillset as well, scoring 84 runs between the Phillies and Blue Jays. Revere also drew a career-high 32 (!) walks, posting a career-best .342 on-base percentage in the process.
Those are all good things, but Revere likely isn’t a new man. And after a trade from the high-scoring Jays to the good but not as high-scoring Nationals, the 27-year-old may have a hard time building on last year. More likely, he’ll be the same player he’s always been — good average, more steals than most, no power and a passable amount of runs scored. Serviceable, absolutely, but nothing revolutionary.
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