Team News: FA Cup implications for the PL
The third round of the FA Cup didn’t produce a great deal of the “magic” that everyone seems contractually bound to discuss when this competition comes around each year. Yes, Oxford United beat Swansea City but pretty much everyone has been beating Swansea City these days so it’s hard to say that’s a huge surprise even if Oxford City does play in League Two. Beyond that upset, there were some interesting cases of lower division teams holding big clubs (Exeter drew with Liverpool, Bristol with West Brom, and Wycombe with Aston Villa) but until the lower division side finishes out the upset in the replay those are nothing more than interesting side notes when it comes to the “Magic of the FA Cup”.
While the “magic” angle is both overplayed and under-interesting thus far, what does merit some investigation is the impact that both the third round and fourth rounds may well have on the Premier League as we look at the title race, the race for Champions League spots and the relegation “race”. Let’s take a look…
The Title Race
Arsenal – The current leaders weren’t able to ring the changes entirely because they drew Premier League opposition in the third round in the form of Sunderland (OK, they’re Premier League opposition at least for now). The Gunners were able to rest Mesut Ozil, Per Mertesacker, and Nacho Monreal for the entire match and Aaron Ramsey was limited to a substitute appearance. The ideal scenario would have included resting Olivier Giroud, Laurent Koscielny and Hector Bellerin and giving Aaron Ramsey the entire match off but Arsene Wenger wasn’t willing to be that brazen with his changes against Big Sam’s Black Cats. The second big positive for Arsenal was that they won the match outright meaning that they won’t face a replay among the other fixtures coming up. Finally, the fourth round draw offers up another home match, this time against Championship opposition in the form of Burnley. The Clarets are currently 5th in the Championship and we remember from last season that they are hard to break down but it is still a solid match-up given that it could have been Manchester United, Spurs/Leicester City, or Manchester City. Verdict – As good as could be hoped for.
Leicester City – The Foxes have seen their high flying start to the season blunted somewhat and the fates weren’t with them when they drew Spurs at White Hart Lane in the third round. Claudio Ranieri showed that his focus is on the Premier League with his team selection that saw Jamie Vardy (injured), Riyad Mahrez, Marc Albrighton and the entire starting defense rested from the start. Albrighton came in as a substitute but Ranieri resisted the urge to bring any of his other big guns in and took N’Golo Kante out at the half. The Foxes fell agonizingly short of an upset despite the weakened line-up with Spurs awarded a late, controversial penalty for a 2-2 final. They are well-poised to bring their best players back with a little extra rest for this weekend in the Premier League. The replay, next week mid-week, will make it three straight matches with Spurs leading into home match with Stoke City who won outright and will have had an entire week of rest. If the Foxes top Spurs in the replay at the King Power Stadium then they will get a relatively light fourth round with a trip to Colchester United. Verdict – Nice to get a rest for some big players but the next two weeks are going to be pretty grueling.
Manchester City – A trip to Norwich City for an easy 3-0 win and rest for David Silva, Yaya Toure, Kevin De Bruyne (came on as a sub), Fernandinho, Clichy (on as a sub), Sagna and Joe Hart made it a double bonus. A trip to Wycombe or Aston Villa for the fourth round means that the Citizens are likely to be able to employ the same strategy for the next round as well. The only questionable thing about the entire weekend was that Manuel Pellegrini chose to risk Sergio Aguero for 70 minutes. His recent injury history makes this a pretty significant risk on a competition that probably isn’t THAT important to City. Verdict – About as well as things could have gone other than not getting to give Sergio Aguero a rest.
The Race for Fourth
Tottenham – Much of the Leicester City write-up applies. Spurs rested some key players – Hugo Lloris, Jan Vertonghen, Kyle Walker, Dele Alli (came on as a sub), and Harry Kane (came on as a sub) – but paid the price in terms of the match yielding a draw and requiring an additional away match in an already crowded fixture schedule. Spurs would certainly have preferred to keep Kane and Alli on the bench for the entire match but it wasn’t to be. After three straight matches with the Foxes, Spurs face a trip to Crystal Palace that will be that much trickier because Palace won’t be playing an FA Cup replay in mid-week leading up to that match. Verdict – Like Leicester City, Spurs did themselves no favors in the Premier League with the draw.
Manchester United – Louis Van Gaal suggested that members of his squad have entered Arsene Wenger‘s “in the red” zone so that United won outright and face a weak opponent in the fourth round in the form of Derby County all has to be looked at as positive. The downside is that United again played poorly against opposition that United squads from years past would have dispatched with a shrug. A late penalty winner and only two total shots on target are embarrassing and United can’t feel particularly good about anything right now. Verdict – They’re still not United but they checked all the boxes.
West Ham United
The Hammers quietly won outright which will help as their squad gets back to something approaching normal after so many injuries in November and December. Assuming that Liverpool go through, the fourth round isn’t going to be easy and if West Ham have eyes on this particular prize it will mean an extra match for their first teamers at Anfield in late-January. Maybe we’ll get lucky and be treated to something on the order of the 2006 FA Cup final between these two sides which was one of the best matches I’ve ever seen. Verdict – Solid outcome but it will likely get harder in the next round.
Crystal Palace
Pretty much the same situation as the Hammers with the Eagles winning an unremarkable match outright but getting a tough task (vs. Stoke City) in the fourth round as their reward. The bonus, referenced above in the Spurs write-up, is that their January 23rd opponent, Tottenham, will have to come to Selhurst Park having played three matches against Leicester City in the space of a week. If that makes Spurs an easier mark for Palace then that could have some implications as the contenders for fourth jockey for position over the second half of the season. Verdict – Pretty good outcome with Spurs weakened.
Liverpool
So many things going wrong with Liverpool these days. They have Arsenal and Manchester United coming up next in the league with an injury-decimated squad. They will then have to face a replay against an Exeter team that they should crush but who will be emboldened by their 2-2 draw against the Reds on Friday. Liverpool catch a break in that the match immediately after the replay is a trip to Norwich City which they should be able to win even somewhat depleted but the fourth round brings a visit from West Ham assuming they get past Exeter which isn’t going to be easy given West Ham are getting over their injury issues. Verdict – Not much went well other than Liverpool not losing to lower league opposition outright.
The Relegation Zone
Norwich City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Newcastle – They all lost which gives them more time to rest players and focus on doing what they need to in the relegation race. While you never want to advocate losing as a positive there wasn’t much point in any of these clubs hanging around in the FA Cup to pick up injuries and tired players when they need all their energy focused on the Premier League. Verdict – Winning by losing?
Aston Villa – The Villans can’t even get losing right. They’re pretty much relegated already but any hope they have is predicated on putting everything they have on the Premier League. Instead they drew with Wycombe meaning that they have to expend energy on a replay before the winner gets crushed by Manchester City in the fourth round. Verdict – Losing by drawing?
Bournemouth – In contrast to Villa, the Cherries seem to be doing just about everything right. They’ve been winning in the Premier League. They’ve acted decisively in the transfer window and picked up attacking options in the form of Benik Afobe, Juan Iturbe and Lewis Grabban. In the third round of the FA Cup, they picked up a win outright and got lucky in the draw with a trip to Portsmouth or Ipswich Town as their fourth round assignment. Even if things come apart and they get relegated, Iturbe goes back to Roma while Afobe and Grabban aren’t likely to bristle at or be too expensive for the Championship and a quick bounce back to the Premier League. Verdict – Well played all the way around.
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