Greg Cosell’s Playoff Preview: Breaking down NFC wild-card games
On Saturday we previewed the AFC wild-card games, and now it’s time to look at the NFC matchups.
In these posts I’ll share something I’ve noticed from watching film, either a strategic wrinkle or a matchup issue, that you can watch for in the game. Here’s the preview of the NFC wild-card games:
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
I went back and looked at the first matchup between these teams, a 38-7 Seahawks win in Minnesota on Dec. 6, and it was evident early in the game that the Vikings offensive line could not handle the physical challenge presented by the Seahawks defensive line.
If the Vikings want to change the result today, that specific matchup can’t be as one-sided as it was. The Vikings can’t be physically handled up front. In this space we talk about a lot of strategic concepts, but in that first meeting it simply came down to the physical side of the game, at least when the Vikings were on offense.
Here are two Adrian Peterson runs that show how little room the Vikings line made for him.The first is a 1-yard loss from the first quarter:
And this is a third-quarter, 2-yard run. You can see that the Vikings get no push up front and there’s no hole available for Peterson:
Peterson had just 18 yards on eight carries in the first game.
I’m not sure how the Vikings completely flip that matchup up front. I don’t anticipate Peterson getting many yards, so Teddy Bridgewater is going to make some throws. That won’t be easy in terrible weather conditions.
In the first meeting, the Seahawks just predominantly played their usual “Cover 3” zone and didn’t switch it up much. They didn’t need to. They were just physically better. One other thing to keep in mind for this game is that the Vikings offensive line has struggled to pick up tackle/end stunts, so expect to see some of that from Seattle.
The Seahawks also were very good on offense in that first meeting, and the Vikings can improve there. Minnesota had many key defensive injuries either going into that game or during the game. They’re healthier now. And coach Mike Zimmer will have a better plan. One thing the Vikings need to do a better job of is containing Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson as a runner. He’s especially effective with his legs in the red zone, both when he improvises and by design. An 8-yard touchdown against the Vikings is a good example:
Wilson has also been throwing it really well, and he hit Doug Baldwin for this 20-yard touchdown. The concept was two inside verticals, with Baldwin attacking the single-high safety Antone Exum. Wilson had outstanding timing and anticipation and he ripped it with velocity.
There hasn’t been that much talk lately about the Seahawks’ offensive line, which was criticized early in the season. Part of that is Wilson. He is playing with a much more refined sense of timing and rhythm as a pocket quarterback.
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS
We talked at length about the Packers’ offensive issues here and here. Now let’s focus on Washington’s offense, which has many dimensions and a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who is playing well.
One thing that stood out late in the season, and that’s how good the Redskins’ screen game is. They’re good on conventional screen passes to running backs, and also on tunnel screens to receivers. Jamison Crowder gained 44 yards on this tunnel screen last week, with right tackle Ty Nsekhe and right guard Brandon Scherff doing a good job getting out in front. It’s a really well-designed and well-executed play.
What makes the Redskins passing offense so effective is they have a lot of talent at receiver, and they have every dimension you need to win short, intermediate or vertical. That includes DeSean Jackson, who can beat a defense deep, and a tight end in Jordan Reed who can align anywhere.
Jackson’s deep ability puts a lot of pressure on a defense. Here’s a big play right after halftime against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. The Bills were in man free but didn’t flop their corners, so safety Corey Graham was matched on Jackson. Jackson and Pierre Garcon had a switch release so Jackson ran the go route down the sideline and Cousins threw to the mismatch. The Redskins will take shots to Jackson against Green Bay.
Perhaps the most concerning player for the Packers will be Reed. In the last four weeks he has 29 catches on 31 targets. That’s an incredible rate. The Packers don’t have an obvious matchup solution for him. Out of the dime, safety Micah Hyde might draw the assignment, because that’s what the Packers have done against tight ends this year. But defensive coordinator Dom Capers is very multiple and won’t just stick to one thing.
The problem with Reed is he poses a matchup issue for anyone. Here, against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, when linebacker DeMeco Ryans vacated the middle to cover the running back in the flat, linebacker Mychal Kendricks had Reed with no middle help. Reed’s angle route easily beat him for a 12-yard touchdown. How the Packers match up with Reed is a big key for Sunday’s game.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
