Roundball Stew: Stew: Otto Appreciation
J.R. Smith is not the subject of this week’s column. However, his latest bout of statistical craziness is, in fact, the launching point. To review:
During a six-game, 10-day stretch from Dec. 23 to Jan. 2, Smith averaged 8.7 ppg on 33.3 percent shooting. Granted, he did post 1.5 spg and 2.0 3s during that run, but when you consider that the six-game streak included a four-point game and two three-point outings, you get the idea: It was maddening.
Then came his last two games, and a part of the story we’ve all seen before: 24 points and eight treys against Toronto on Monday, then 25 points, three steals and five 3s against the Wizards on Wednesday. That gave J.R. 49 points in two games after scoring a combined total of 52 in his previous six.
To be clear, I have nothing against using J.R. Smith in fantasy leagues — the insane binges can be pretty useful if one arrives during the fantasy playoffs — but it is neither a bold nor a new statement to say that the guy is maddening.
Which brings us to the subject of this week’s column: a collection of players who are not posting huge numbers consistently, but also aren’t regularly making you angry. The players discussed below are just straight-up solid without being all that flashy, which makes them a bit tougher to appreciate than some of the bigger names on your roster. But as you evaluate your team, and potential trades, don’t underestimate the value of…
Otto Porter, SF, WAS
Numbers: 12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.1 3s on the season
Analysis: On the surface that’s a pretty bland stat line, but it’s worth noting that Porter’s best stretches have looked far better than his season numbers. Consider his three most productive streaks of the year:
Oct. 31-Nov. 21 (8 games): 15.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.9 spg, 1.0 3s, 54.5 percent from the field
Dec. 4-Dec. 12 (6 games): 16.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.7 bpg, 1.3 3s
Dec. 28-Jan. 6 (5 games): 15.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 2.0 3s, 53.3 percent from the field
There certainly have been some duds in Porter’s game log, but for much of the season he’s been operating at a higher level than his season stats, which aren’t that bad in the first place. Taking all that into consideration, I’d try to acquire Porter in as many leagues as possible. His prolonged stretches of higher production have me thinking that the former No. 3 overall pick — in his first season as a full-time starter — could be headed for an even bigger second half.
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Jae Crowder, SF/PF, BOS
Numbers: 14.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.8 spg, 1.7 3s on the season
Analysis: Crowder has just three 20-point games all season, but he has basically been a better version of Trevor Ariza in 2015-16, largely due to better shooting (Crowder: 44.4 percent from the field, Ariza: 38.5). Crowder has also just been flat-out more consistent than Ariza, who has 13 single-digit scoring outings already this season, as opposed to just seven for Crowder. Furthermore, Crowder has hit for double figures in 10 straight, a stretch that has seen him average 18.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.5 spg and 1.7 3s on 48.1 percent shooting. In short, Crowder is a major asset in 3s and steals who’s becoming more consistent as a scorer and rebounder as the season goes on (first 22 games: 4.4 rpg, last 14 games: 6.6 rpg). As for Ariza, I actually never planned to get him caught up in this Crowder business, and still like him as a fantasy player despite the shooting issues (it’s hard to be too angry with 1.8 spg and 2.0 3s per game), so let’s move on.
Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, ATL
Numbers: 13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.8 3s on the season
Analysis: Another somewhat unheralded swingman, lately Bazemore has been on a big-time scoring binge: 20.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.5 spg and 3.8 3s on 51.9 percent shooting in his last four games. Obviously that isn’t sustainable, but even during his lower-scoring outings, Bazemore is often productive. During a recent three-game streak of single-digit scoring in late December, Bazemore posted 7.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.7 bpg and 1.7 3s.
Shane Larkin, PG, BKN
Numbers: 6.6 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.6 3s on the season
Analysis: A slightly different case here. We haven’t really gotten a chance to appreciate Larkin’s subtle contributions given that Jarrett Jack just sustained a season-ending injury last weekend, so I’m projecting a bit into the future here, and guessing that it won’t be long before Larkin is pretty useful. Yes, his first start after Jack’s injury was terrible (four points, two boards, two assists in 27 minutes on Monday), but he followed that up with nine points, five boards, four assists, three steals and a trey on Wednesday. In total, Larkin has played 20 or more minutes in 15 games this season, and in those games he has posted 8.1 ppg, 5.0 apg, 1.8 spg and 0.7 3s. With a regular shot at 30-plus minutes a night, he has a legitimate chance to be pretty helpful without often making a ton of box score noise.
Jose Calderon, PG, NYK
Numbers: 7.6 ppg, 3.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.2 3s on the season
Analysis: Make no mistake, Calderon is somewhat agonizingly boring. And if high-point totals / intrigue are what you covet, go look somewhere else immediately. With that said, there is definitely some value here, especially in recent weeks. Over his last eight games, Calderon has posted 9.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.1 spg and 1.5 3s, all while shooting 64.6 percent from the field (on just six attempts per game) with a mere 1.1 turnovers per game. Again, this is not traditional excitement, or really exciting in any way whatsoever, which is why this paragraph ends right now.
Other Random Thoughts: Nikola Jokic has had a nice run for those who picked him up in deeper leagues (last 14 games: 10.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg), but the operative phrase here is deeper leagues. As you probably know, the Denver center to own in standard leagues — and the Denver center with a chance to make a monster impact in the second half — is Jusuf Nurkic, who has posted a total of 27 points, 18 rebounds and six blocks in 37 minutes combined his last two games. At this point, health / playing time restrictions (and yes, maybe foul trouble) look like the only things that can prevent Nurkic from a full-scale breakout. … Thaddeus Young has hit just five 3s all season, but four of them have come in the last seven games. He’s already providing strong value without 3s (16.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.8 spg in 26 games since mid-November), but we might as well get greedy and hope this outside shooting trend continues.
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