NFL against the spread picks: Four home dogs for wild-card weekend – Yahoo Sports (blog)
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron (5) walks the field after an NFL football game against the Baltimore …
The Las Vegas Sun said this would be the first time ever that all four road teams are favored in the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs (the Green Bay Packers-Washington Redskins line has been bouncing back and forth, with each team being favored at times this week, so we’ll see if Green Bay ultimately ends up as the favorite).
Maybe this shouldn’t be a big surprise. Home teams, not counting three London games, were 136-117 (53.8 percent) this season. Against the spread, home teams were just 112-133-8 against the spread this season according to TeamRankings.com. Home-field advantage isn’t getting you very far anymore.
Playoff previews: KC-HOU (1:00), PIT-CIN (11:00), SEA-MIN (24:00), GB-WAS (35:00)
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Still, it’s strange to see four home underdogs this weekend. Here are the picks for a weird wild-card weekend, with lines as usual coming from the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em:
Chiefs (-3) over Texans: If you’re picking the Texans, there are good reasons. Their defense has been fantastic, Brian Hoyer has played better than anyone gives him credit for, and the Chiefs’ 10-game winning streak has been mostly against bad teams.
That said, winning 10 games in a row is a great accomplishment in the NFL and I think this Chiefs team is ready to break a playoff drought that dates back to Jan. 16, 1994.
Kansas City does everything pretty well, though we all know by now that they don’t create a ton of explosive plays in the passing game. That might not be necessary this week against a Texans team that was tied for 21st in scoring offense this season. Really, it’s simple: I think the Chiefs are the better team. They’ll win a low-scoring game.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL PREVIEW ON CHIEFS AT TEXANS]
Bengals (+3) over Steelers: We’re focusing on the wrong injury in this game.
AJ McCarron will start for Andy Dalton, and that’s why the Steelers are favored. But I think I have more faith in McCarron playing a solid game than I do the Steelers finding any semblance of a running game without DeAngelo Williams.
A year ago on wild-card weekend I made the mistake of underestimating how much Le’Veon Bell’s injury would affect the Steelers. They lost 30-17 to the Ravens with no running game and a one-dimensional offense. The Bengals have played the Steelers’ pass game well too, with Ben Roethlisberger getting just one touchdown and throwing four interceptions against Cincinnati this season. The Steelers can score at will against a lot of teams, but the Bengals can match up well. Also, the Steelers haven’t looked great the last two weeks, and they’ll likely be without Williams. That affects the passing game too, with a much less reliable back to pass protect.
As long as McCarron doesn’t have a horrible game — and he hasn’t thrown an interception in his three starts — I like the Bengals to get the win.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL PREVIEW ON STEELERS AT BENGALS]
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – DECEMBER 27: Mark Herzlich #94 and Landon Collins #21 of the New York Giants tackle Adrian Peterson …
It’s impossible to ignore how well the Seahawks have played, and how they destroyed the Vikings a month ago, winning 38-7 in Minnesota. But this is a lot of points to lay against a Vikings team that was 11-5 straight up and an amazing 13-3 against the spread this year.
The Vikings are going to play better than the first meeting, of course. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer is good at making adjustments for rematches. Seattle could win but nobody expects the rematch to go just like the first meeting, of course. I think the Vikings, in brutal weather conditions, will do enough to cover.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL PREVIEW ON SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS]
Redskins (+1) over Packers: If it weren’t for a once-in-a-lifetime Hail Mary win at Detroit, the Packers would be on a 3-7 run over their last 10 games. The offense looks broken. And, as crazy as it sounds to say out loud, Kirk Cousins has been the more productive quarterback than Aaron Rodgers over the second half.
Washington is a good home team and is playing well lately. Green Bay is not. Sure, Rodgers could get hot and carry the Packers, but we’ve been waiting for that to happen most of the past couple months. There have been no signs to think that will magically come true this weekend.
[CLICK HERE FOR SHUTDOWN CORNER’S FULL PREVIEW ON PACKERS AT REDSKINS]
Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 122-127-5
Playoff previews: KC-HOU (1:00), PIT-CIN (11:00), SEA-MIN (24:00), GB-WAS (35:00)
Grandstanding: A Yahoo Sports podcast
Subscribe via iTunes or via RSS feed
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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