Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Jeremy Wardwell and Jeff Baldwin picked against the spread all season long in Rotoworld’s Season Pass, and now they’re keeping things going in the playoffs. They’ll start out with 1,000 units to use during the playoffs. They will have to use a minimum of 25 units on each game, and one over/under selection during the first two rounds but can only use a maximum of 220 units per round. In the Championship round, they’ll be picking both games as well as the over/under. For this round they’ll have to use a minimum of 50 units on each pick with a maximum of 300 units for the round. For the Super Bowl, they’ll pick the game, over/under and two props. They’ll have to use a minimum of 50 units and a maximum of 200 units on each pick and will have a 400-unit max for the round. With all of that out of the way, let’s get to the picks.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Houston Texans
Jeff: The Texans defeated the Jaguars at home 30-6 to clinch the AFC South. The Chiefs took care of the Raiders 23-17 as they have won 10 straight games. The Chiefs now head to Houston to take on the Texans. This will be a rematch from earlier this season in Week 1. In that game, the Chiefs jumped out to a 27-9 halftime lead, and held on to win the game by a touchdown. The Texans suffered a tough blow last week as they lost All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown to a torn quad. Throw in the fact that LB Justin Houston will return to action this week and there is definitely a cause for concern on the Texans’ offensive line. The Texans’ defense has been the story for this team as over the last three weeks this unit has only allowed a little over seven points a game. J.J. Watt has once again put together another tremendous season. Watt will need to make things difficult for this Chiefs’ offense if they hope to have any chance to win this game. The Texans’ defense will need to play better than in their Week 1 matchup. They can’t afford to get behind big early again. As for the Texans’ offense, look for them to use the short passing game in order to combat the Chiefs’ ability to rush the quarterback. WR DeAndre Hopkins will be targeted heavily by QB Brian Hoyer in this contest. Hopkins finished with nine catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 versus the Chiefs. Not many people are picking the Texans as they are siding with the hot team in the Chiefs. This line has gone up since it opened, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it goes up even more before kickoff. In the end, I think we’ll see a very close game that could easily be decided by a late field goal by either team. I’m expecting the Texans to play well here in front of their home fans. The Texans are 7-2 ATS over their last nine games.
Pick: Texans +3.5, 50 units
Jeremy: The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Houston to take on the Texans in an AFC Wild Card match up on Saturday afternoon. Houston punched their ticket to the playoffs by knocking off the Jaguars in a 30-6 win last week. The team welcomed Brian Hoyer back after he missed the previous two weeks with a concussion. The quarterback threw for 249 yards along with a touchdown and an interception. He and the Texans will take on a Chiefs’ defense that has allowed just 13 points per game over their 10-game winning streak. Houston will be without key offensive lineman tackle Duane Brown who suffered a torn quad last week. Brown’s loss will make it difficult for Alfred Blue and the Texans’ running game. Kansas City ranked 8th in the league against the run allowing just 98 yards per game and only seven rushing touchdowns. With a limited rushing attack, Houston will look go to the air with Hoyer looking for his primary target, WR DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins had 98 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in a 27-20 Chiefs’ win in Week 1. Alex Smith led Kansas City to that win by throwing three touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Texans’ defense is a much improved unit from the group that Smith faced early in the year. They closed out the year as the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL and held opponents to less than 20 points per game. Back in Week 1, the Chiefs still had RB Jamaal Charles who went down with a knee injury in Week 5. The Kansas City rushing attack will be led this week by Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware who have formed a potent 1-2 punch in recent weeks. I don’t expect either team to do much on the ground as Houston allowed less than 100 rushing yards per game over the course of the season and has held their last three opponents to 50 or less. I’m looking for this to be a hard-fought defensive battle that will ultimately be decided by the team that can find some success through the air. I see the Texans as the team that can ultimately do that as Hopkins will break free for a big touchdown that will propel Houston into the next round. Houston is 5-3 at home ATS including 4-1 in their last five.
Pick: Texans +3.5, 35 units
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Jeff: The Steelers came away with a 28-12 win over the Browns. This was a win they needed as the Jets lost to the Bills which allowed the Steelers to earn a playoff berth. The Bengals defeated the Ravens 24-16. The AFC North champs enter these playoffs as the third seed and play the Steelers for the third time this season. The Steelers were able to bounce back against the Browns after a terrible loss to the Ravens in Week 16. Everyone seems to think this is the wildcard team that can make a serious run to the Super Bowl. Their offense is obviously explosive, but the fact of the matter is this team hasn’t played well over the last two weeks. The Steelers turned the ball over three times against the Browns. If they were playing a better team, the result could have been a lot different. The Steelers are also dealing with a key injury to RB DeAngelo Williams. Williams left last week’s game with an injured ankle. It doesn’t look like Williams will suit up on Saturday night. If he does play, you have to wonder how effective he will be. The Bengals have been going with QB AJ McCarron since QB Andy Dalton injured himself the last time these two clubs met. Dalton doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to play in this game. McCarron will have a favorable matchup here as he faces a Steelers’ secondary that ranks 30th in the league giving up 272 yards passing/game. WR A.J. Green should have plenty of opportunity to make some big plays down the field. The Bengals also got back TE Tyler Eifert last week after he sat out a few weeks due to a concussion. The return of Eifert just makes this offense that much tougher to defend. I think the Bengals come up with a huge effort on both sides of the ball. Look for the Bengals to use the home underdog role as a key motivating factor. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as underdogs.
Pick: Bengals +3, 50 units
Jeremy: Two familiar foes square off in the Saturday night wild card game as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals renew acquaintances. The teams split the season series and the Steelers have won seven of the last 10 meetings. Despite winning four out of their last five games to end the season, Pittsburgh needed some help from the Jets on the final day of the season to secure a playoff spot. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has battled a variety of injuries all season and is coming off a 350 yard, three touchdown performance against the Browns. He will likely need a similar game this week if the Steelers hope to advance. RB DeAngelo Williams has been dealing with an ankle injury and has yet to practice this week. It is highly unlikely that he plays and if he does, just how effective he would be remains a question. Without Williams, Pittsburgh will lean even more on their prolific passing game. Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant form one of the most explosive wide receiver tandems in the league. The Bengals are stronger against the run than they are against the pass. This could allow Pittsburgh to stretch the field and open up the short game underneath to compensate for the limited rushing attack. The Bengals will likely turn again to AJ McCarron in place of Andy Dalton who is expected to miss this week as he continues to recover from a broken thumb. McCarron, who is dealing with an injured wrist himself, has filled in admirably in Dalton’s absence. He has won two of his three starts while throwing four touchdowns and more importantly, no interceptions. McCarron has yet to prove he is a threat to take a game over with his arm but will have to do so in this one if the Bengals hope to advance. Pittsburgh ranked 5th in the league against the run and will likely stack the box against running backs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill who combined for more than 1,500 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. I’m looking for this to be a close game. The Bengals’ playoff struggles are well documented and they will be putting their offensive strength against the Steelers’ defensive strength leaving a young inexperienced quarterback as the deciding factor. McCarron is likely to struggle in his playoff debut especially if he has to play catch-up. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in Cincinnati. Losing Williams will hurt but the Steelers will have enough offense with WR’s Brown, Bryant, Markus Wheaton and TE Heath Miller to overcome his loss.
Pick: Steelers -3, 50 units
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Jeff: The Seahawks enter the playoffs red-hot as they dismantled the Cardinals 36-6 and have now won six out of their last seven games. The Vikings came away with a 20-13 win over the Packers clinching the NFC North. The Vikings never trailed in this game, and now face a very dangerous team in the Seahawks. When these two teams faced each other earlier in the season, the Seahawks blew them out in Minnesota 38-7. The Vikings didn’t score an offensive touchdown as their lone score came on a kickoff return. RB Adrian Peterson was held to eight carries for 18 yards. I don’t think much has changed as Sunday’s game is a great matchup for the Seahawks as their strength in stopping the run feeds right into the Vikings’ strength. The Seahawks are ranked first in the league against the run as they only gave up 81.5 yards/game on the ground. If the Vikings can’t find success running the football, they’ll be forced to throw the football which is something they don’t do well. They are ranked close to last in the league in passing yards per game at 183. The Seahawks’ secondary can shut down any attempt the Vikings may make to move the ball through the air. Offensively, QB Russell Wilson has been playing the best football of his young career. Wilson will get RB Marshawn Lynch back from injury which only makes this offense even tougher to defend. Lynch didn’t play the last time these two teams faced each other. Look for the Seahawks’ offense to use a balanced attack through the air and on the ground. Wilson’s scrambling ability will also play a big part in this game as he’ll pick up some crucial first downs with his legs. It is expected to be frigid cold in Minnesota, but I don’t think that favors any team. I can see this game being close early on, but look for the Seahawks to pull away in the second half.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5, 50 units
Jeremy: The Seattle Seahawks travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in this NFC Wild Card game. Minnesota is hosting a playoff game for the first time since the 2009 season and will look to stay hot after winning three straight to close out the regular season. Seattle closed out the season winning six of their last seven games, averaging 32 points per game over that time. QB Russell Wilson, who is generally known for his running game, led the charge down the stretch throwing 24 touchdown passes and only one interception. The Seahawks’ defense was nearly as good, holding opponents to 14 points per game and allowing only one team more than 100 yards rushing. Seattle is expecting to get RB Marshawn Lynch back after he missed seven games with a hernia. It will be interesting to see how Seattle’s offense changes with Lynch’s return as Wilson’s offensive explosion coincided with Lynch’s injury. I anticipate Seattle continuing to lean on the passing game while using Lynch and Christine Michael to keep the Vikings honest. Minnesota has been tough against the run recently as well. They haven’t allowed more than 100 rushing yards or given up a rushing touchdown in their last four games. Offensively, the Vikings have leaned on RB Adrian Peterson throughout the season and will do so again in this one despite the Seahawks’ strong run defense. QB Teddy Bridgewater has been average all season and really hasn’t shown the ability to take over and win a game on his own. A playoff game against the stout Seahawks’ defense is a tough task for a young quarterback in his first taste of the postseason. When these teams met in Week 13 in Minnesota, Seattle held Bridgewater to 118 yards passing and forced an interception in a 38-7 Seahawks win. I expect this game to be closer than that but the end result will be the same. Seattle will dominate with their defense and Russell Wilson will have at least three touchdown passes as the Seahawks win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Seahawks -5.5, 75 units
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Jeff: The Redskins finished off the Cowboys 34-23 as they head into the playoffs on a four-game winning streak. The Packers lost at home to the Vikings with the NFC North title on the line. This offense once again struggled to move the football effectively and put points on the board. The Packers will need to figure out things quickly as they take on the NFC East champs in the Redskins. In order to take pressure off of QB Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will need to run the ball with effectiveness. They are facing a Redskins’ defense that gives up 122.6 yards/game on the ground so there’ll be opportunity for RB Eddie Lacy and RB James Starks. The past two weeks the Packers have faced two very good defensive lines which exposed the Packers’ inability to protect Rodgers. The Redskins aren’t in the same class as the Cardinals and Vikings from a defensive front perspective. Rodgers should have more time to throw on Sunday. The Redskins’ secondary isn’t a particularly strong unit so the Packers’ receivers will have a chance to make some plays in the passing game. The Packers’ defense faces a Redskins’ offense led by QB Kirk Cousins who has played his best football of late. The key here is to get pressure on Cousins so he can’t get into any type of rhythm with his receivers. The Redskins are a pass-heavy offense as they do struggle running the football. This is clearly not your typical Packers team on offense, but I think in this matchup they’ll be able to do some things and be successful. I also think having more playoff experience on the Packers’ side gives them an advantage over this Redskins team. In what will be a relatively high-scoring game, look for Rodgers to make a big play late as he’ll lead this team to an outright win. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games.
Pick: Packers +1.5, 50 units
Jeremy: After winning six straight games to start the season, the Green Bay Packers enter wild card weekend losers of six of their last ten and now face a road playoff game against the resurgent Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. Washington won four in a row to clinch their first playoff appearance in four years. Led by QB Kirk Cousins, the Redskins went 6-2 at home during the regular season. Cousins threw 16 of his 29 touchdowns and only two of his 11 interceptions at FedEx Field. It wasn’t just Cousins and the Washington passing attack that preferred to play at home, the running game had nearly twice as many yards and averaged nearly one and a half more yards per carry at home. Green Bay ranked in the middle of the league in points scored and struggled for much of the second half to find any offensive consistency. A major reason for the inconsistency has been turnovers. The Packers have turned the ball over 13 times since Week 9 and ball security will be huge against a Washington team that ranks in the top-10 in the league in takeaways. The Packers will look to their running game to control the pace of the game. Washington struggles against the run and will be focused on stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game which will allow James Starks and Eddie Lacy to put together a big rushing day. The Packers are dealing with injuries to several key players on both sides of the ball with some of the biggest questions in the secondary and on the offensive line. The Packers have struggled all year to protect Rodgers and losing any more players on that line could ruin any shot Green Bay has to advance. I’m looking for Washington to continue their hot play at home and Cousins to take advantage of the battered Green Bay secondary.
Pick: Washington -1.5, 45 units
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Total: 40 points)
Jeff: The Chiefs travel to Houston to take on the AFC South champs. When these two teams met in Week 1 they combined for 47 points which went over the posted total. I think this time will be different as points will be harder to come by. Both defenses are solid units that play well against the pass and rush. They also get to the quarterback as the Texans and Chiefs are ranked in the top-five in the NFL in sacks with 45 & 47 respectively. I can see both offenses playing very conservatively earlier on in the game as each team doesn’t want to make a big mistake early. The Chiefs will have to contend with J.J. Watt as he has the ability to take over games. The Chiefs get a nice boost on the defensive side of the ball as they’ll get LB Justin Houston back from injury. QB Alex Smith and QB Brian Hoyer will have their hands full Saturday afternoon dealing with these defenses. As outlined above, I think this is going to be a close game with a field goal being the difference. I think the winner comes away with a 20-17 victory as this game will stay under the total.
Pick: Under 40 points, 20 units
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Total: 39.5 points)
Jeremy: The Seahawks and Vikings game will pit a team with one of the top defenses and hottest offenses in the league against one with a young quarterback, elite running back and a solid defense. As mentioned above, Seattle has averaged 32 points per game in their last seven games while holding opponents to just 14 over that same span. On the year, Seattle has averaged 26 PPG while giving up just under 18. Minnesota has averaged 32 points per game after their 38-7 Week 13 loss to Seattle. While the Vikings struggled to get anything going offensively in that game, I expect them to have a better showing this week and score at least two offensive touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson has yet to practice this week but is expected to play. The Vikings will likely look to the passing game in an effort to open up the run given Seattle’s strength against the run. Minnesota has been strong defensively of late allowing 16 points per game during their three game winning streak and 19 PPG on the year. The total for this game has been posted at 39.5. Although four of the last five meetings between these teams have gone over the posted total it will certainly not be a high-scoring game. I am expecting this one to be played in the low-20s. Seattle historically plays better as the season goes on and I expect their offense to have success moving the ball even if they won’t break the 30 point barrier. Take over 39.5 as a defensive or special teams touchdown pushes the total over the number.
Pick: Over 39.5 points, 20 units
You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffBaldwin4 and Jeremy @jdwardwell5.
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