NFL Playoff Preview: Can Bengals snap playoff streak vs. Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS
STEELERS AT A GLANCE
How they got here: The Steelers had an unusual year. They didn’t have Le’Veon Bell or Martavis Bryant to start the season because of suspensions and started 2-2. In Week 3, Ben Roethlisberger went down with a knee injury. When he came back for a Week 8 game against the Bengals, Bell suffered a season-ending knee injury. So the entire Steelers offense was only on the same field for less than a half this year. But the offense has been explosive with Roethlisberger healthy. Starting in Week 9, the Steelers scored at least 30 points in six straight games. Then came a stunning loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, only to have the New York Jets lose in Week 17, opening the door for the Steelers to get in the playoffs.
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Key player: It’s DeAngelo Williams, or perhaps Fitzgerald Toussaint, his backup. Williams got out of a walking boot on Wednesday but didn’t practice, as he tries to heal from a right foot injury suffered last week. Toussaint didn’t exactly impress last week, carrying 12 times for 24 yards. If Williams is ineffective or inactive and Toussaint plays for him, the Steelers have to be concerned about being one-dimensional without the threat of a run game. Pass protection, especially if Toussaint plays, is a big issue as well.
Why they’ll win: When the Steelers are on, 30 points seems to be their floor. Antonio Brown is amazing, Roethlisberger is playing great football and the Steelers have great weapons aside from Brown. If the Steelers can score 30, they’d probably feel good about their chances of beating an AJ McCarron-led Bengals team.
Why they’ll lose: The last two weeks have been strange. The Steelers looked terrible against Baltimore, and even the Browns with Austin Davis at quarterback were within a score in the fourth quarter last week. Have they lost a little steam late in the season? The Steelers’ biggest problem overall is on defense, where they give up too many yards in the passing game (though, the defense also had 17 interceptions, which helps). Also, if Williams can’t play or isn’t his usual self, the offense might not be able to just outscore the Bengals.
Keep in mind: Even in the Steelers’ 33-20 win at Cincinnati last month, the game in which Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton broke his thumb in the first quarter, Pittsburgh was out-gained by the Bengals 385-354 and was helped tremendously by a pick-six from cornerback William Gay off McCarron. The game script changed when the Steelers took an early lead, leading to some meaningless yards from the Bengals, but even in tough circumstances the Bengals were far from dominated in that game.
BENGALS AT A GLANCE
How they got here: The Bengals had a fine season, but the Dalton injury changes their entire outlook. Dalton was an MVP candidate when he broke his thumb. McCarron has had some nice moments, but he isn’t playing to the same level Dalton was, nor did anyone expect him to do that. It seems incredibly unlikely Dalton plays this week, so it’ll be on McCarron to play well. Fortunately, the Bengals have some great talent around the quarterback position. The roster is stacked from top to bottom. Had Dalton stayed healthy, the Bengals might be the favorite to win the AFC.
Key player: No need to get cute here, everyone knows that it’s McCarron. McCarron really hasn’t been bad, with a 97.1 rating. He hasn’t thrown an interception in three starts, though he did lose a costly fumble in overtime at Denver. He has looked very confident and he won’t be scared by starting a playoff game, not after the big games he started at the University of Alabama. He’ll need to make a few plays, but the Bengals don’t need him to carry the offense. He just needs to have a solid, mistake-free night.
Why they’ll win: The Bengals defense can match up with the Steelers. They allowed a 79 passer rating, fifth best in the NFL. The Bengals got 21 interceptions and allowed just 18 touchdowns. Between Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, Cincinnati can rush the quarterback very well too. Roethlisberger threw just one touchdown in 84 attempts against Cincinnati, with four interceptions. He didn’t throw for 300 yards in either game. The Bengals aren’t going to shut out the Steelers or anything, but they should feel fairly good about at least limiting Roethlisberger and his crew.
Why they’ll lose: Because that’s what Marvin Lewis and the Bengals do in the playoffs? If the Bengals go one-and-done again, the criticism and jokes won’t be fair. This is a team that caught a terrible break with Dalton’s injury. But facts are facts, and Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs. If Lewis loses, he’ll break a tie with Jim Mora for most consecutive playoff losses without a win to start a career. The players and coaches are human, and it will be impossible for them to not have thoughts of their past playoff failures creep into their minds if they fall behind early.
Keep in mind: The Bengals have two good backs in Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill, but the running game wasn’t that great this season. They had just five 20-yard runs (second lowest in the NFL), no 40-yard runs and their 3.9-yard average was tied for 21st in the NFL. Keep a close eye on their running game early on; the Bengals getting something positive going on the ground might be the difference between them winning and losing.
OUTLOOK
The reason the Steelers are favored is that folks see the explosive Pittsburgh offense and the Bengals being led by their backup quarterback. While that might play out, and the Bengals simply can’t keep up the scoring with the Steelers, it ignores that the Bengals are a really good team from top to bottom and will be at home. However, there is the playoff history for the Bengals, which we all know isn’t good. If you’re a Bengals optimist, you hope that hearing over and over about playoff failures might give Cincinnati a large chip on their shoulder heading into this game.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
