Manny, Pudge and Vlad among new names on 2017 Hall of Fame ballot
The National Baseball Hall of Fame has seen an influx of major talent appear on the ballot in the past three years. Ken Griffey Jr. was a lock the moment he became eligible, as were Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.
While Griffey, and Mike Piazza, deserve praise for being the most recent inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame, we can’t help but look forward to next year’s ballot.
The 2017 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot won’t feature any sure things. Manny Ramirez, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero all have legitimate cases to be in the Hall of Fame, but none of them are locks to make it on their first try.
They highlight a star-studded 2017 ballot that will also include holdovers like Jeff Bagwell, Trevor Hoffman and Tim Raines.
Statistically, Pudge has the strongest case. The 14-time All-Star hit .296/.334/.464 over 21 excellent seasons in the majors. He won the 1999 MVP award, picked up 13 gold gloves and was widely considered not just one of the best catchers of his era, but one of the best catchers of all-time.
Pudge’s numbers are even more impressive when compared to other catchers currently in the Hall of Fame. According to JAWS, a metric developed by Jay Jaffe that compares a player’s statistics to current Hall of Famers at the same position, the average Hall of Fame catcher compiled a 43.1 JAWS score. Pudge easily beats that, coming in at 54.0. For a more involved explanation of JAWS, go here.
Though the numbers scream “Hall of Fame,” Pudge will likely find himself in a similiar position to Mike Piazza. Piazza’s numbers were clearly deserving of enshrinement, but rumors and innuendo about steroids prevented him from making the Hall of Fame his first couple years on the ballot.
The initial rumors about Pudge surfaced in Jose Canseco’s book “Juiced.” Canseco is far from the most reliable source, but those rumors never really went away. Both Piazza and Jeff Bagwell have been punished by voters for similar issues, and Pudge could be the next to fall into that category.
In Ramirez’s case, there’s much less of a gray area. Though his numbers were impressive, and he was considered one of the best hitters of his era, Ramirez was suspended twice by Major League Baseball for using banned substances.
Ramirez posted a .313/.411/.585 slash line, with 555 home runs, over his 19 year career, and has a JAWS score slightly higher than the average Hall of Fame outfielder, but the positive tests may be too much for many voters to handle.
Guerrero comes with zero of those concerns, but there are some questions about whether his numbers are worthy of the Hall. Guerrero was a tremendous hitter, posting a .318/.379/.553 slash line, with 449 home runs, but he only played 16 seasons. By JAWS, he’s a borderline candidate. His rating is slightly lower than the average Hall of Fame outfielder, though it’s close enough to justify voting for him.
One area that should help Vlad is the narrative surrounding his play. He was certainly one of the most feared hitters of his era. Though he didn’t walk all that much, Guerrero led the league in intentional walks five times. His peak, while shorter than some Hall of Famers, was incredibly impressive.
Vlad also tends to take on superhuman traits when people recount stories of his play. He’s one of those players where you tend to believe every insane story you hear about him.
Someone could say, “one time, Vlad threw a ball from home plate out of the ballpark” or “he once hit a home run on a pitch that bounced four times,” and you might just believe it.
That type of hyperbole shouldn’t influence his Hall of Fame case, but it gives you an idea of how dominant Vlad looked at times. While numbers are king, narrative can play a role in whether a player receives additional votes.
Other candidates making their first appearance on the ballot include Jorge Posada, Javier Vazquez, Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew. Posada might receive some support, though the other first-timers probably won’t come close to ever being inducted. If you want to see a full list of every player on the 2017 ballot, or if you’re just a huge fan of Danys Baez, you can do that here.
On top of that, Jeff Bagwell (71.6), Tim Raines (69.8) and Trevor Hoffman (67.3) will be looking for some extra votes after coming close to induction this year. And don’t forget about Curt Schilling (52.3), Edgar Martinez (43.4), Barry Bonds (44.3) and Roger Clemens (45.2). All four saw their voting percentage increase this year. It’s possible they could eventually be elected if they continue to gain steam.
For the first time since 2013, there’s a chance no player will be elected to the Hall of Fame in 2017. There are plenty of deserving candidates on the ballot, but some are borderline cases, while others suffer from steroid gossip.
That uncertainty doesn’t necessarily make things more exciting, but it should make the voting process a lot more interesting next year.
More MLB coverage from Yahoo Sports:
– – – – – – –
Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
