Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina benefit from new Hall voter rules

It takes some players multiple years before they are enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Few players transcend the game enough to be a sure-fire first-ballot lock like Ken Griffey Jr.

Instead, a wide majority of players inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame remain on the ballot for multiple seasons. For some, that seems silly. If a player is deemed worthy of the Hall of Fame on their third try, why weren’t they just inducted on their first try? 

[Related: Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza have been inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame]

Sometimes, however, there are legitimate reasons a player might hang around on the ballot for quite some time before eventually getting the call. In recent years, the sabermetric explosion has played a big role in that sentiment. 

The case for Bert Blyleven, who only received 17.5 percent of the vote his first year on the ballot, picked up steam once advanced showed he was much better than initially believed. A similar phenomenon has occurred with Tim Raines in recent years. 

After Wednesday’s voting results were announced, it’s starting to look like Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina could be next. Both players saw the biggest spike in voting percentage of all the candidates this year. Martinez picked up an extra 16.4 percent. Mussina led all players, seeing his voting percentage rise 18.4 percent. 

One reason for the change is the BBWAA’s new voting policy. The pool of voters was altered drastically coming into the year, as the organization took away ballots from members who were 10 years removed from covering the game. The voting pool got younger, and included more writers who were willing to embrace new stats. The older honorary members who may have taken a hard stance with Martinez and Mussina in the past were no longer part of the equation.

Even with the huge jumps, both players remain far from induction. Martinez received 43.3 percent of the vote this year, while Mussina settled in at 43 percent. Still, those numbers are encouraging if you believe Martinez and Mussina are on a similar trajectory to Blyleven and Raines. 

That may wind up being the case. Both Martinez and Mussina have seen their case strengthened by advanced stats.

[Elsewhere: Ken Griffey Jr. should enter the Hall of Fame with a backwards cap]

The main knock against Martinez is his position and his relatively short peak. Though he was one of the best hitters in the game when he played, Martinez didn’t become a regular until age-27 which shortened his ability to compile more stats. His .312/.418/.515 slash line remains excellent, but his counting stats, like his 309 career home runs, leave a lot to be desired.

Even with those limitations, Martinez’s JAWS score, which compares a player’s stats to that of the average Hall of Famer at his position, is 56. The average Hall of Fame third baseman has a JAWS score of 55, meaning Martinez is just above that thresh hold. If you would rather compare Martinez to a first baseman, the average JAWS score of first baseman in the Hall of Fame is 54.2. There aren’t enough designated hitters in the Hall of Fame to use as a guideline for Martinez, so the voters are in unusual territory here.

For a long time, the knock on Mussina was that he had never won 20 games in his career. While pitcher wins are not a viable way to evaluate a player in the advanced stats community, it was one of the main arguments that Mussina wasn’t a Hall of Fame pitcher among traditional types. Mussina eventually reached that plateau during his final season, though he still remains a borderline candidate among stat and traditional analysts.

Now, the knock on Mussina is that he was a compiler. He was consistently a great pitcher, but never the best in the league. His numbers, 270 wins and a 3.68 ERA over 18 seasons, aren’t eye-popping, but it’s important to remember his era. In 1996, when Mussina posted a 4.81 ERA, that was actually three percent better than the average ERA that season. Being three percent better than the average isn’t necessarily a reason to celebrate, but it gives an idea of just how crazy offensive numbers were during the time Mussina played.

Like Martinez, Mussina is a Hall of Fame player if you look at JAWS. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 62.1 JAWS score. Mussina checks in at 63.8, making him a worthy candidate for induction. 

[Elsewhere: Will Mike Piazza’s induction make it easier for other PED suspects to reach the Hall?]

Those players shouldn’t automatically be inducted just because their JAWS score is high enough, but both are clearly legitimate candidates. Based on the jump in voting percentage Martinez and Mussina received this season, there’s hope for their supporters that both players will eventually receive a plaque in Cooperstown. 

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik