KC, WAS, PIT among 'perfect' fits for Cliff Lee
Earlier this offseason, it was reportedly veteran left-hander Cliff Lee is planning to attempt a comeback after sitting out the entire 2015 season. Lee has not pitched since July 2014 due to a torn flexor in his elbow. He has rehabbed the injury and will try to pitch again in 2016.
During an MLB Network Radio interview over the weekend (audio link), Lee’s agent Darek Braunecker said Lee will only pitch next season if he finds a “perfect fit.” Here’s what Braunecker said:
“This is going to have to be a situation where (it has) to be a perfect fit for Cliff from a competitive standpoint, from a financial standpoint. The overall opportunity is going to have to be the right fit for him to pursue, to leave home, to leave his two relatively young children and stuff.”
Only Lee and Braunecker know exactly what qualifies as a “perfect fit,” though my guess is Lee wants to pitch for a contender. That seems obvious enough. Lee has pitched in the World Series twice in his career (2009 Phillies, 2010 Rangers) but hasn’t won it yet.
I also think Lee will want to join a team where he doesn’t want to have to complete for a rotation spot. He’ll want a guaranteed job, or at least something close to it. I doubt Lee wants to sign with a team only to compete with two other guys for a fifth starter’s job or something like that.
So, with that in mind, here are five teams that appear to be “perfect fits” for Lee as he attempts a comeback in 2016.
The Tigers have already signed two starters this offseason, adding Jordan Zimmermann and Mike Pelfrey to Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. They’ve also added Cameron Maybin, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson in hopes of contending in 2016.
Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Shane Greene are among those expected to compete for the fifth spot in spring training. Norris was the main piece who came over from the Blue Jays in the David Price trade last year, and while he pitched well in his brief time with Detroit (108 ERA+ in eight starts), he had surgery this offseason to treat thyroid cancer. The team may opt to take it slow with him next year.
Boyd and Greene are promising, though neither stood out in 2015. Boyd came over with Norris in the Price trade and had a 60 ERA+ in 10 starts and one relief appearance for the Tigers. Greene had a 57 ERA+ in 16 starts and two relief appearances. Lee would bump Norris, Boyd and Greene to Triple-A and give the Tigers a lefty complement to their all-righty staff.
If you’re looking to join a contender, what team could be more appealing than the defending World Series champs? The Royals would also offer Lee a clear path to a rotation spot. Their starting staff right now includes Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Chris Young and Kris Medlen.
Young pitched very well last season (135 ERA+ in 123 1/3 innings) but is at his best in a swingman role. The 36-year-old is not really capable of pitching deep into games at this point of his career, not after battling shoulder problems for years. Medlen had a 104 ERA+ in 58 1/3 innings in 2015 as he worked his way back from his second Tommy John surgery.
Signing Lee would allow the Royals to bump either Young or Medlen into the bullpen, where they fit best right now. Kansas City is looking to add a starter as it is — they were in on Scott Kazmir earlier this offseason — and Lee figures to come rather cheaply. They’re a contender, they need a starter, and Lee wouldn’t have to fight for a rotation spot. It’s as perfect as fits get.
The Pirates have a sneaky underwhelming rotation. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano are a dynamite one-two punch, but behind them the Buccos have Jonathon Niese, Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong. That’s … not too great. There’s room for improvement there.
In addition to being a bonafide contender and offering a clear path for a spot in the starting five — Locke or Vogelsong could slide into the bullpen — the Pirates would also offer Lee the best and most aggressive defensive positioning in baseball. Pittsburgh shifts and positions their fielders as well as any team in the game and their pitchers have benefited greatly.
The Pirates have operated on something of a budget this offseason — Pedro Alvarez was non-tendered and Charlie Morton was traded in cost-cutting moves — and Lee should be budget friendly. He’s in line for a one-year contract with a low base salary and incentives. A $5 million guarantee may be his salary ceiling.
Under new team president Mark Shapiro, the Blue Jays have had a busy offseason, adding starters J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez while re-signing Marco Estrada. Happ and Estrada will join R.A. Dickey and Marcus Stroman in the rotation while Chavez will compete with Drew Hutchison for the fifth spot.
Both Hutchison and Chavez have bullpen experience, meaning the fifth spot is potentially open for Lee. Toronto clearly has a budget this offseason — they would have much more aggressively pursued Price if they had more financial wiggle room — and Lee shouldn’t require a huge commitment.
Keep in mind Shapiro and Lee have a history dating back to their time with the Indians. That doesn’t necessarily mean they have a leg up to sign him, but it is certainly something that could help the team during negotiations.
The Nationals have already lost Zimmermann to free agency and chances are they’ll lose Doug Fister as well. The team still boasts an impressive top three starters in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. Right now the last two spots are in the hands of Tanner Roark, Joe Ross and A.J. Cole.
There’s no doubt the Nats are looking to erase the memory of their brutally disappointing 2015 season. The team has already signed Daniel Murphy and they’re looking for outfield help. A starter figures to be on the agenda too. GM Mike Rizzo loves big names, and Lee’s a big name who won’t cost a ton.
Despite the ugly 2015 season, the Nationals do still have an impressive core led by Scherzer, Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. Given all the rebuilding teams in the NL, getting to the postseason figures to be a bit easier than it has been in recent years. Contention is not far-fetched.
Other possible fits — let’s call them “imperfect” fits — for Lee may include the Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees. Those clubs either have full rotations or may not be enough of a contender for Lee, or both.
Lee was pretty good before he got hurt, pitching to a 3.65 ERA (103 ERA+) with strong sabermetric numbers (2.96 FIP) in 81 1/3 innings in 2014. He is older now, but his elbow is healthy, and he’s never been a guy who blew hitters away anyway. Lee is an artist on the mound, painting the corners. That ostensibly should allow him to remain successful even with reduced stuff at age 37 and following the injury.
Cliff Lee is looking to pitch in 2016, but only if he finds a ‘perfect fit.’ (USATSI)
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