NFL against the spread picks: Figuring out Week 17 motivation – Yahoo Sports (blog)

Week 17 has 16 games, all on Sunday, and only two games have meaning for both teams involved, as far as playoff implications go.

The Minnesota Vikings-Green Bay Packers game will decide the NFC North. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals both can change their playoff seeds with wins, but they both need help. Seattle can still get the fifth seed with a win and a Green Bay win, and that’s it for them. Not a crazy difference there. Arizona can still get the No. 1 seed but needs a Carolina loss. Even that game won’t have much urgency.

Yeah, it’s not that crazy of a Week 17. When picking the games, we have to figure out if teams are playing for pride and which teams are counting the hours until they’re at the golf course. And that’s almost impossible to do.

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Teams like the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears have had disappointing performances in recent weeks, and right after you think they’re done for the season they come back strong and win the next week. But you don’t know which teams will react like the New York Giants, who were eliminated from the playoffs last Saturday and had a truly awful performance on Sunday.

Let’s try the picks for the last time in the regular season, with the lines coming from Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em:

Falcons (-4) over Saints: It seems like Atlanta wants to finish Dan Quinn’s first season strong. Too bad they took the middle part of the season off. An they probably can win the finale because they’re going against the Saints defense.

Jets (-3) over Bills: I know the Rex Ryan revenge angle is fun, but the Bills seem to be a mess. The Jets, meanwhile, have won five in a row and need to win to clinch a playoff spot.

Lions (pick ’em) over Bears: Talk about a meaningless game. Still, the Lions have played well the last couple weeks. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Bengals (-7.5) over Ravens: Very simply, I think the Ravens played their Super Bowl last week. They wanted to beat the Steelers to mess with their playoff chances, and they did that. The Bengals can still get a first-round bye, but they need help.

Steelers (-10) over Browns: It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers, whose loss last week was truly terrible. But Austin Davis is starting at quarterback for Cleveland.

Cowboys (off) over Redskins: Washington has clinched a division title. Dallas is just terrible. I still don’t want to back the team that will just be trying to keep everyone healthy for a playoff game next week.

Titans (off) at Colts: The Colts, an actual NFL franchise, split starting reps at quarterback this week among Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman, who were signed off the street. That’s not good.

Dolphins (+10) over Patriots: I have a weird feeling that Miami plays hard on Sunday. They’re not a very good team but they show flashes. And perhaps they want to finish a disappointing season with an upset. That won’t happen but maybe they cover the spread in the process.

Eagles (+3) over Giants: No idea what to make of either team now. But if Chip Kelly lost the locker room, as everyone says, maybe the Eagles will be motivated to show up their fired coach.

Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans: The Texans are in a weird spot. The Colts need nine different results to go their way Sunday to take the AFC South from Houston, and the odds of that happening are in the thousands. Still, the Texans don’t want to mail this in and watch the Colts hit their parlay. All that said, it seems like too many points to give the Jaguars.

Chargers (+8.5) over Broncos: Another hunch that the Chargers will play hard to try to spoil the Broncos’ AFC West title hopes. I don’t think they’ll win but maybe they can cover against a Broncos team coming off an emotional victory on Monday night.

Raiders (+6.5) over Chiefs: Oakland is a great example of a young team that was knocked out of the playoff race but still is trying to win and get momentum for next year. The Chiefs still can win the AFC West, but I think they get a good game from the Raiders.

Cardinals (-6.5) over Seahawks: The Cardinals have a little more to play for. Not sure the difference between the No. 5 and 6 seeds is going to bring out a full effort from Seattle.

Rams (-3.5) over 49ers: Please, whatever you do, avert your eyes from this game if it happens to show up on your television screen for even a few seconds.

Panthers (-10.5) over Buccaneers: The 16-0 pressure is off, so the Panthers can go about the business of securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Vikings (+3) over Packers: I just don’t think the Packers are playing well. The Vikings will follow the lead of the Bears and Lions as NFC North teams to win at Lambeau this year.

Last week: 7-9
Season to date: 113-120-5

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab

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