Known Hall of Fame ballots bode well for Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines
As Wednesday’s Hall of Fame announcement nears, we’re beginning to see a little clearer picture of which players could get the call to Cooperstown. That is almost entirely thanks to Ryan Thibs — aka @NotMrTibbs on Twitter — who is once again collecting and tablulating every Hall of Fame ballot cast by a Baseball Writer’s Association of America (BBWAA) member that becomes public before the results are announced.
If you want to know which players are trending in the right direction, which players will likely remain on the outside looking in, and which players could fall off the ballot altogether, one glance at Thibs’ Hall of Fame Tracker will get you up to date. It’s definitely worth checking out today, and especially so over the next four days as several more ballots flood in.
[Elsewhere: Dodgers hoping that depth gives them edge in loaded NL West]
As things stand now, 140 ballots have been collected, which represents 31.1 percent of the 450 ballots expected. With 75 percent of the final votes needed for election, we can safely say Ken Griffey Jr. will be going in on his first try. He might as well pop the champagne bottle now, as he’s collected a vote on all 140 ballots cast. The only questions left are whether or not he’ll be the first player inducted unanimously, and if not, whether he’ll best Tom Seaver’s record 98.84 percent of the vote in 1992.
Behind Griffey is Mike Piazza, who so far has earned 87.9 percent of the votes. That’s a pretty comfortable position to be in, but he’ll still need seven out of every 10 remaining votes to stay above the 75 percent threshold. Assuming voters continue the trend of filling their ballot — so far there have been 8.45 boxes checked per ballot — he should be in good shape.
Here’s where it gets interesting though. Jeff Bagwell (sixth year on the ballot) and Tim Raines (ninth year) are sitting on 82.1 and 80.7 percent respectively. That puts them on the inside for now and perhaps in their best position to get and stay over the hump. For perspective, they finished last year at 55.7 and 55 percent respectively. But it should also be noted they were doing well in the early ballots last year too, earning 70 and 66.2 percent of the first 130 ballots before tailing off.
History says it could still go either way for both, but with four players voted in last year and Griffey the only obvious choice joining the ballot this year, that may keep voters focused on their cases and voting in their favor. This could be especially important in Raines’ case, as he’ll only have one year left on the BBWAA ballot.
Beyond those four, no other player is currently over even 65 percent. Trevor Hoffman (62.9) and Curt Schilling (60.7) would be best positioned to make a run, but both would need over 80 percent of the remaining votes. Both are a real long shot this year, but that could be seen as a strong start for Hoffman, who’s on the ballot for the first time.
Another player gaining momentum is Mike Mussina.
Mussina’s at 55.8 percent, but could be positioned to surge next season if both Bagwell and Raines get in now.
[Elsewhere: Randy Johnson and Bryce Harper ring in new year at Fiesta Bowl]
On the other side of things, Garrett Anderson, Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Mark McGwrie, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Billy Wagner and Larry Walker are already out of the running this year. They are seeking the five percent needed to remain on the ballot. In McGwire’s case, it will be his tenth and final year on the ballot because of recent rule changes. Alan Trammell, who’s in his 15th and final season on the ballot, is currently at 45.7 percent.
It’s worth saying that we’re analyzing a relatively small portion of the votes. A lot can change as the undisclosed ballots are tabulated, but we have a real good idea what the storylines will be come Wednesday.
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
