Week 17 DFS Start/Sit: A.J. Green, the color of money

Here’s a few DFS plays to cash in on this week, and a few to avoid at the current cost. Best wishes in the final regular-season week of the 2015 season, and happy New Year!

STARTS

QB – Brock Osweiler, Den vs SDG  ($27 in DFS) – The Chargers will be without secondary staples in CB Jason Verrett and FS Eric Weddle. Both have received extremely high marks in pass coverage this season. Expect Osweiler to take advantage of that situation.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy: $10 could win you $20K in our $200K contest for Week 17]

 RB – Rashad Jennings, NYG vs Phi ($14) – Volume is no longer an issue for Jennings, as he’s had at least 16 touches in each of the past three games, averaging the seventh-most fantasy PPG at the RB position in that span. The Eagles have allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to running backs in the past 10 weeks, so a healthy workload should lead to success for Jennings.

 RB – Danny Woodhead, SDG at Den ($16) – Woodhead had a season-high 19 touches last week, which he turned into 108 total yards. This was after picking up three receiving touchdowns in Week 15. Momentum is swinging back in Woodhead’s favor as he heads to Denver this week. And, while he picked up just 34 total yards in his previous meeting with Denver, the Broncos are certainly susceptible to running backs that are adept in the passing game – Denver has allowed 86 catches and five touchdown receptions to the RB position.

 WR – Devante Parker, Mia vs NE ($12) –  Parker has produced as a top 30 fantasy WR over his past five games, and he’s averaging over 7 targets per game in that span. In a matchup against New England that is likely to push Miami to the air often (Ryan Tannehill attempted 44 passes in the previous meeting), Parker should be able to deliver a healthy return on a mere $12 investment.

WR – A.J. Green, Cin vs Bal  ($26) – Green is the 13th-most expensive WR option this week, and he should be more than worth it (he’s sixth on my WR rankings list). He’s facing a Baltimore defense that he torched for 10 catches, 227 yards and 2 TDs back in Week 3. It was the fourth straight game he has scored against the Ravens, and it was the third game in that span in which he finished with at least 130 yards.

 TE – Zach Miller, Chi at Det ($14) – The bargain-priced Miller, who is a top 6 fantasy TE over the past three weeks, is facing the fourth-most generous defense to opposing tight ends, one that has allowed the most TE touchdowns (12, including four in the past five games).

[Week 17 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Flex | All Positions]

SITS

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB vs Min  ($33) – Rodgers is the eighth-most expensive QB this week, yet eighth place is the highest he’s finished among QBs in fantasy points in any of the past six weeks – he’s finished 24th or worse in three of those games. The dud potential here is too high for the price.

RB – Charcandrick West, KC vs Oak ($25) – West’s DFS value is still inflated by his mid-season glories as opposed to what he has done lately – just 37th in fantasy PPG among running backs over the past five weeks. And West’s worst game in that Week 11-16 span was against Oakland (44 total yards), this week’s opponent.

RB – Denard Robinson, Jac @ Hou  ($16) – “Shoelace” has been a major disappointment the past two weeks in matchups against the Downy soft run defenses of Atlanta and New Orleans (0 TDs, 72 total YPG). Facing a stiffer defensive challenge this week (HOU) and likely to continue hemorrhaging touches to Jonas Gray, it’s time to write Robinson off as a lost DFS cause.

WR – Mike Evans, TB at Car ($26) –  Evans faces Carolina’s Josh Norman and company, and the history card is not good – in three career meetings, Evans has caught a combined 10 of 25 targets, and has delivered 37 yards or less in each matchup.

WR – Randall Cobb, GB vs Min ($21) –  Cobb hasn’t scored since his previous meeting with Minnesota in Week 11, but he caught just two of nine targets in that game for a mere 24 yards. Cobb is the 29th highest-priced WR in DFS this week, but he’s just 46th at the position in total fantasy points since Week 4.

TE – Jordan Reed, Was at Dal  ($23) – Not only does Reed face a Dallas defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the TE position, but he also does it with little incentive. Washington is locked into its playoff position and, for a player with Reed’s injury history, there is little incentive for the Redskins to put him in harm’s way this week. Beware of all Washington starters.