Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 17 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
It’s Week 17. Most season-long fantasy football leagues packed up shop and handed out checks last week. The regular season’s final week can be a real hassle with teams locked into playoff spots resting starters and teams already out of it giving younger players a little bit more work. If you’re playing fantasy this week, you’re probably playing DFS. Or you’re using your Sunday for something more productive and gearing up for the postseason. We’re going to keep it short this week.
QUARTERBACK
Starts
Matt Ryan vs. Saints: Week 17 is no time to quit attacking the Saints’ league-worst defense. Ryan has been one of the most disappointing quarterbacks of the season, but this is as good of a time as any to fire him up in lineups. The Saints have allowed 43 touchdown passes through 16 weeks. Julio Jones might be the No. 1 play of the entire week.
Eli Manning vs. Eagles: Right there with the Saints at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defense are the Eagles. No team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Eagles over the past five weeks. Philadelphia just fired coach Chip Kelly on Tuesday and has nothing left to play for. Manning gets this unit at home and is getting Odell Beckham back.
Ben Roethlisberger at Browns: Big Ben is coming off a flat-out stinker of a Week 16 against the Ravens where he passed for just 220 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. He managed 6.5 fantasy points and probably singlehandedly wrecked potential championship lineups and the Steelers’ playoff chances. It’s a perfect time to go back to the well. The Browns are expected to be without their top-two CBs in Joe Haden and Tramon Williams due to concussions. Cleveland will be forced to start youngsters Charles Gaines, Pierre Desir, and Justin Gilbert outside. It’s a matchup ripe for picking.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Bills: Fitzpatrick is going back to his old stomping grounds in Buffalo where he spent four seasons of his career. And the Jets’ playoff hopes are on the line in a game Gang Green badly needs. Much like the Browns above, the Bills are down CBs Stephon Gilmore (shoulder) and potentially Ronald Darby (groin) and may be forced to trot out some practice-squad types on defense. Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, and Eric Decker are all must-starts.
Sits
Kirk Cousins at Cowboys: The Redskins already have the NFC East sewn up and are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture. They have nothing to gain by playing their starters. If Cousins does get the start, he could play only a couple series just to stay sharp. Even if Cousins would play the entire game, the competitive juices won’t be flowing as heavily, and the Cowboys neutralize opposing quarterbacks by playing at such a slow pace on offense.
Philip Rivers at Broncos: The Broncos continue to field the league’s No. 1 pass defense. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks. And back in Week 13 against Denver, Rivers completed just 18-of-35 passes for 202 yards, zero scores, and one pick. Rivers carried some fantasy lineups earlier in the season, but the matchups have gotten tougher the past month-plus.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Jets: The Bills will be trying to play spoiler against the Jets on Sunday, so they should be juiced up for the finale. But the matchups for Buffalo’s offense against New York’s defense simply don’t lean in the Bills’ favor. The Jets are eighth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks on the season and over the past five weeks. In the previous matchup between these two clubs in Week 10, Taylor threw for just 158 yards and one touchdown on 27 attempts.
Sam Bradford at Giants: This game is likely to be one of the higher-scoring and more up-tempo ones of the weekend, but Bradford face-planted in this matchup earlier this season and has nothing to play for Sunday. He’ll likely want to leave a sweet taste in onlookers’ mouths because he’s set for free agency, but Bradford has let us down a number of times. The Giants have surrendered the most passing yards on the year, but they’ve also picked off 13 passes. Back in Week 6 against the G-Men at home, Bradford tossed a season-worst three interceptions.
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RUNNING BACK
Starts
Tim Hightower vs. Falcons: Since taking over as lead dog in Week 14, Hightower has averaged 25 touches per game and is coming off a 31-touch, 112-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Jaguars last week. The per-touch output isn’t great, but Hightower is being fed the football. The Falcons have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Hightower is a virtual lock for 20-plus touches.
Rashad Jennings vs. Eagles: Over the past three weeks, Jennings has emerged as the Giants’ lead running back. Andre Williams and Orleans Darkwa are being phased out of the offense, and Jennings is averaging 19 touches and 115 total yards on 35 snaps in that span. He also scored his second rushing touchdown of the season two weeks back and has produced nice stat lines in difficult matchups against Carolina and Minnesota. Philadelphia is on the easier side of the spectrum, as the Eagles have surrendered the most touchdowns and fantasy points to running backs since Week 12.
James White at Dolphins: White’s role has increased dramatically since Dion Lewis went down with a torn ACL. White’s touches have been a bit scattered, but he’s producing with the ones he’s receiving. He’s scored six touchdowns over the past six games and seems to be the lone constant in the Patriots’ backfield as the pass-game specialist. The Dolphins have surrendered eight touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 12. Miami also has absolutely nothing to play for in the finale.
Ameer Abdullah at Bears: Abdullah has played at least 20 offensive snaps in each of the past six games and averaged 10.83 carries per game over that span. The Lions have wanted to take a longer look at the rookie with their season in the tank. With nothing to play for and nothing to see from Joique Bell in the finale, it makes for a perfect spot to see what Abdullah can do with an increased workload. The Bears have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 12.
Sits
Jeremy Hill vs. Ravens: The Ravens were shredded by DeAngelo Williams on the ground last week, but they made a concerted effort to stop Pittsburgh’s passing game by playing both safeties high over the top to protect against Ben Roethlisberger and the pass. A.J. McCarron won’t draw that sort of attention. Baltimore will go back to playing stout run defense like they’ve been doing all season. The Ravens are fifth in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Hill is getting more carries lately, but the production still isn’t there. He posted a 12-21-0 rushing line in Week 3 against the Ravens.
Chris Ivory at Bills: Ivory is banged up with a knee injury and has been losing work to Bilal Powell for weeks. Powell is out-playing his backfield mate by quite a bit. And with the Jets in need of a win, they’re going to put the ball in the hands of the players that are putting up numbers. That’s been Powell. Ivory has rushed for 50 or fewer yards in 3-of-4 games and hasn’t scored since Week 12. He’s averaging 3.13 YPC on 24 combined carries the past two weeks.
Lamar Miller vs. Patriots: The Patriots have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and haven’t given up a touchdown to the position the past three weeks. The Dolphins have nothing to see from Miller and may want to give more work to rookie Jay Ajayi in the meaningless finale to see if he can carry the load and possibly be the feature back in 2016 with Miller set to become a free agent in March. Miller averaged 1.79 YPC on 24 totes Weeks 15-16.
Denard Robinson at Texans: Robinson was a total bust in last week’s dream matchup with the Saints, producing just 20 rushing yards on six carries and dropping a pair of passes out of the backfield. The Jaguars yanked him in the second half in favor of practice-squad signee Jonas Gray. On Wednesday, OC Greg Olson said the plan is to “get a good look” at Gray in the finale. He’ll likely handle much of the early-down work, while Shoelace mixes in on pass downs.
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