5 Bold Predictions for College Football Playoff – Bleacher Report Even with only one year to show for thus far, the College Football Playoff proved it is capable of unleashing plenty of surprises. Who guessed Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott would gash a traditionally vaunted and NFL-laden Alabama defense for more than 200 yards? How did a third-string quarterback even lead his team to a title after only a few starts? In addition, the normally composed Jameis Winston, the Heisman Trophy winner and the NFL’s subsequent first-overall pick, uncharacteristically fell apart against an Oregon defense many doubted. The 2015 playoff edition is sure to contain twists and turns. With no clear favorite and each team possessing a unique style of football, any school could triumph or struggle this postseason. Alabama and Michigan State rely heavily on the running game while playing suffocating defense in order to grind out wins. The Spartans have an advantage with Connor Cook at quarterback, but his health is a concern going against a dominant Crimson Tide defensive front. Clemson and Oklahoma possess seemingly unstoppable offenses. Still, each unit contains slight deficiencies for the opposing defenses to exploit. Which defense will do so more effectively? Here are a couple of predictions for each semifinal contest and a thought on a projected winner for what is sure to be a wild 2015 College Football Playoff. Despite its impressive record, the Spartans offense has underwhelmed the entire season. Outside of an explosive 55-point performance in a win over Penn State and an early-season clash with a developing Oregon team, Michigan State relied on its defense to win games this season. Against Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State, the three toughest opponents on the Spartans’ schedule, the team averaged 20 points per game. Headlined by linebacker Reggie Ragland and defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama boasts arguably one of the most stifling defensive fronts in college football the past few seasons. The secondary is stingy as well, totaling 16 interceptions while allowing only 184 passing yards per game. This will provide a daunting challenge for Cook and the Michigan State offense. It has yet to face a defense with such size and speed up front. Alabama should be able to neutralize the Spartans’ run game with its top-ranked rushing defense. Just ask LSU’s Leonard Fournette about such a matchup. This leaves Cook to shoulder the load offensively, which will be difficult. After dealing with a shoulder injury that limited him to only complete 50 percent of his throws in the Big Ten Championship Game, Cook claims to be fully healed heading into this matchup. However, it may still be a factor, which is bad news for Michigan State. The Spartans receivers will struggle to create separation against a more talented Alabama secondary, leaving Cook more exposed to the pass rush, especially if the run game is ineffective. Look for Alabama’s defense to come out extremely motivated after last year’s poor outing and make a statement in the 2015 Cotton Bowl. Alabama’s offensive strategy is blatantly obvious. Give the ball to Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry for most of the game to set up some occasional play-action strikes. Henry carried the ball 90 times combined in his last two games, and with great success. He likely will not be running so wild against Michigan State. The Spartans boast a tremendous run defense of their own. They rank ninth in rushing yards allowed per game and have experience containing dominant rushers. The unit held Indiana’s Jordan Howard, Oregon’s Royce Freeman and Elliott to fewer than 100 yards on the ground. Henry may break the 100-yard barrier just based on the sheer number of carries he will see, but Michigan State will focus a lot of attention on him, which will inevitably slow him down. This leaves Alabama quarterback Jake Coker as the X-factor of the Crimson Tide offense. Since entering the Ole Miss game in Week 3, Coker showed himself to be a capable signal-caller with a 72 percent completion percentage in the 10 games since. Coker, now surging with more confidence, has a solid matchup to utilize. Michigan State ranks outside the top 50 in passing defense. The Spartans are likely to leave the Crimson Tide receivers in single-coverage for the game with all the attention given toward the run game. Calvin Ridley should be able to create space outside off of play action for Coker, who will have plenty of 3rd-and-short situations from Henry’s grinding on earlier downs. The quarterback can also run the ball himself, having ripped off runs of more than 10 yards in five games in 2015. It is finally Coker’s time to shine. With the numerous matchup problems Alabama presents on offense, he should have the opportunity to be the difference for the Crimson Tide as they knock off Michigan State. The Tigers and Sooners both know how to move the ball and score on offense. Each team scores more than 38 points per game, with Oklahoma coming in second nationally with more than 45 points a game. Still, each team possesses weaknesses that the opposing defenses can take advantage of in this matchup. Oklahoma uses Samaje Perine and the rushing offense to establish a balanced attack. Against Big 12 defenses equipped to stop the pass, this proves to be very effective. Clemson comes in with the best defensive front Oklahoma faces this season, as the Tigers rank 24th in rushing defense. Clemson will focus on the read-option with Perine and quarterback Baker Mayfield in order to stifle the run game as well as the play-action creativity of Mayfield. When teams try this approach, Oklahoma typically throws the ball around to loosen up the defense. The issue against Clemson is that outside of Sterling Shepard, the Sooners do not have a legitimate receiving threat. This is a problem, as Clemson will stick Mackensie Alexander, arguably the nation’s best cover corner, on Shepard. Mayfield may have trouble finding open receivers if his first option is habitually unavailable. Clemson faces its own problems. As great as quarterback Deshaun Watson played so far, he struggled slightly with turnovers. His 11 interceptions is a high number going against an Oklahoma defense that picked off 19 passes this season in the high-flying Big 12. Watson also loses a top target, as receiver Deon Cain was suspended for the 2015 Orange Bowl. This should allow Zach Sanchez, Oklahoma’s top corner, to focus exclusively on Artavis Scott. With both teams bound to face a lot of third downs, Clemson could slightly pull away from Oklahoma. Clemson converts on 48 percent of its third downs, good for 13th nationally. Oklahoma is not in the top 50. Clemson also excels at forcing stops on third down, doing so 75 percent of the time, ranking second in the country. Again, Oklahoma is not even in the top 50. Defensive coordinators Mike Stoops of Oklahoma and Brent Venables of Clemson are two of the nation’s best. They should be able to prepare their units to exploit the above matchup problems. Still, Clemson’s ability to stay on the field longer will be the difference in this game. Lost in the excellence of Watson’s season is the dynamite play of running back Wayne Gallman. Gallman quietly helped pace the Clemson offense with 1,332 yards and 10 scores on the ground, good for third in the ACC. While Watson is revered for his ability to run the ball out of the backfield, he is able to do so thanks to the threat Gallman poses. Oklahoma will focus it game plan around stopping Watson, as it cannot afford to let him get the edge due to his ability to run and pass. This should allow Gallman to have fewer defenders to beat in the read-option, since the defense will shift toward whatever direction Watson runs. Gallman possesses the power and speed to make defenders miss and force his way downfield. Oklahoma allows 149 rushing yards per game, but Gallman could very well break that threshold if Oklahoma throws too much attention toward Watson. Watson may struggle early with the entire Sooners defense chasing him around. However, Gallman’s performance will allow Watson more time to throw and run, which will help him regain his confidence. Look for Watson to have a great second half to give Clemson a lead for Gallman to ice at the end of the game, just like the running back did against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. An extra-motivated Alabama team, with the scary amount of talent and elite coaching it possesses, means trouble for the rest of the College Football Playoff field. Per Ralph D. Russo of the Associated Press, there is a heightened focus with this year’s Alabama team compared to the 2014 squad. “There’s a positive attitude to this group that I didn’t feel like we had with the last group,” said Smart, who has already accepted the Georgia head coach job. “Sometimes you don’t realize that when you’re amidst it, so I can’t sit here and tell you that at this conference last year I felt that way. “But looking at the way this group’s handled things, this group practices every day, their passion for the game; I’m telling you now, (defensive linemen) A’Shawn (Robinson), Jarran Reed, Jonathan Allen, Dalvin (Tomlinson), those guys like practicing.” It can be seen on the field. Compared to last season, where the defense allowed more than 40 points twice in its last three games, Alabama is overpowering opponents with increased intensity. The Crimson Tide allowed more than 20 points only two times so far in 2015. This is certainly bad news for Clemson. Alabama’s defensive line will be able to control the line of scrimmage, allowing Ragland and the Crimson Tide linebackers the freedom to attack Watson and Gallman unblocked. Clemson could become a pass-first team, which is not a strength of Watson. Especially if Cain remains suspended, the Tiger receivers will struggle to find space in the Alabama secondary. Look for Alabama to follow Florida State’s offensive strategy of a single-back rushing attack. Dalvin Cook gashed Clemson for 194 yards rushing behind an offensive line that attacked Clemson physically instead of trying to spread out the defense. Henry and Alabama should have no problem using the same approach as they control the ball and wear down the Tigers. Alabama will climb back to the peak of the sport once more as the Crimson Tide capture their first College Football Playoff championship. All statistics are courtesy of NCAA.com.
Can Nick Saban and Alabama redeem themselves in the 2015 College Football Playoff?
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