The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 17

Happy New Year! If you’re reading this, you either still have a league championship this weekend, really love fantasy football or you’re wading into the Daily Fantasy waters. Week 17 can be a weird week and we already have a wealth of games that have yet to have lines posted for them. Here’s the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 17 games in a PPR fashion….

Jacksonville vs. Houston

• Denard Robinson has had 10 of his 20 carries over the past two weeks go for two yards or less with a long of just nine yards.
• Just three of Blake Bortles‘ 35 touchdowns have come with a lead already and just 12 have given them a lead in a game this season.
• Allen Robinson‘s 28 receptions of 20 or more yards lead the league and are the most ever by a Jacksonville wide receiver in a season.
• Since Week 8, the Texans have allowed just 11 touchdowns (the fewest in the league) on their opponent’s 95 possessions (11.6 percent).
• Over those eight games, they’ve allowed 186.1 passing yards per game (first) and 82.8 rushing yards (fifth) per game.
• Over the past two weeks, 43.9 percent of Brandon Weeden‘s passes have targeted DeAndre Hopkins.
• Jacksonville has allowed 21 pass plays of 20 or more yards over the past five weeks, the most in the league.

Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (Houston has to approach this game to win it and if Brian Hoyer is back, they’ll want to get him reps heading into the postseason), Allen Robinson (he’s scored in nine of his past 11 games)

Bust: Denard Robinson (this team just isn’t built to run this season and there’s not much touchdown upside from a backfield that has three rushing touchdowns on the season), Allen Hurns (expecting Julius Thomas to see the target bump as they’ve been trading each other’s target share), Brian Hoyer (generally always temper expectations for quarterbacks coming off of multiple week layoffs), Alfred Blue/Chris Polk (Jacksonville has been leaky against the run of late, but there’s still too much weekly ambiguity here to use anyone)

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (don’t see a ceiling game here, but he has just three weeks in the back half of quarterback scoring), Julius Thomas (has seen just two targets last week in a great spot, but he had a nice 7/78/1 line in the first meeting), Nate Washington (when Cecil Shorts is out, he’s been in the WR2/3 mix)

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Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland

• Only the Saints have allowed more games with multiple passing touchdowns (12) than the 11 allowed by the Browns.
• With Ben Roethlisberger as the primary quarterback, Pittsburgh has averaged just 22.6 points per game on the road this season as opposed to 33.3 points per game at home.
• Over his past six games against Cleveland, Antonio Brown averages 23.2 points per game with a low of 17.7 points.
• Martavis Bryant had just 8.8 percent of the team targets last week, his lowest total on the season after averaging 23.6 percent of the team targets over the previous five games.
• In games with Le’Veon Bell inactive, DeAngelo Williams averages 122.2 yards from scrimmage per game.
• Since Bell was injured in Week 8, Williams leads the NFL in rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line with 12, converting seven for scores.
• Cleveland allows 3.9 red zone trips per game, 31st in the league.
• Isaiah Crowell has been held under 3.0 yards per carry in seven games this season, tied for most in the league and under 4.0 yards per carry in 10 games, tied for the second most.
• Pittsburgh ranks third in rushing points allowed per attempt (.460), but 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (.454).

Trust: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams (despite their up and down road performances, it’s hard to get away from the main pieces in a game with this high of an implied team point total)

Bust: Isaiah Crowell (has had his best moments with Manziel under center, but this is a poor spot for volume and efficiency), Markus Wheaton (this should be a game where the main pieces thrive, leaving Wheaton to work with only a handful of opportunities), Heath Miller (a floor play with just three top-15 scoring weeks over his past 12 games)

Reasonable Return: Martavis Bryant (he shredded Cleveland in Week 10 and his wheel is a little squeaky after last week), Johnny Manziel (he was QB12 in that Week 10 meeting and Pittsburgh has allowed top half scoring weeks to Ryan Mallett, Brock Osweiler and A.J. McCarron over the past three weeks), Travis Benjamin (the Steelers give up their share of passing yards and the volume should much higher than it’s been for this passing game over the past three weeks), Gary Barnidge (his ceiling has been much lower with Manziel, but he’s still the primary red zone option)

New York (AFC) vs. Buffalo

• The Bills’ eight rushing touchdowns of 20 yards or longer are the most by a team in a season since Tennessee in 2009 (Chris Johnson had all eight).
• Karlos Williams played 61.3 percent of the team snaps to Mike Gillislee‘s 35.5 percent and had 19 touches to Gillislee’s 11.
• Of all backs with 20 or more carries on the season, Gillislee ranks first with 1.82 rushing points and Williams ranks fourth (.98 points) in rushing points per attempt.
• The 148 rushing yards that Buffalo had against the Jets in Week 10 were the most New York has allowed all season long.
• Both the Bills and the Jets have allowed 57 pass plays of 20 yards or more, tied for the fourth most in the league.
• Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are the first set of Jets teammates to ever have double digit receiving touchdowns in the same season.
• Last Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick tied Vinny Testaverde (1998) for the franchise record with 29 touchdown passes on the season and needs 283 passing yards to set the franchise mark of 4,007 yards set by Joe Namath back in 1967.

Trust: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker (this pass game has been cruising and the distribution is shallow, creating the consistency we’ve leaned on)

Bust: Chris Ivory (one top-20 scoring week in the six games since Bilal Powell returned), Sammy Watkins (he had opportunities against Darrelle Revis in the first meeting, but this is still a spot where I expect him to shoot under par), Tyrod Taylor (had his second lowest passing yardage on the season in the first meeting and the volume is always questionable. He’ll need to keep running like he has over the past month)

Reasonable Return: Karlos Williams (despite the paper matchup against the best run defense, Buffalo is the league’s best running team and they won’t get away from it until the situation is dire), Bilal Powell (has been effective with his rushing opportunities on top of his pass catching floor)

New England vs. Miami

• Ryan Tannehill currently ranks 26th in yards per pass attempt (7.0), which would be his fourth consecutive season finishing below QB20 in that category.
• Tannehill has finished as the QB16 or lower in 10 games this season, tied with Sam Bradford for the second most behind Teddy Bridgewater‘s 12.
• After scoring on six of their 13 possessions in Week 7 against Houston, Miami has scored on just 22.3 percent (23 of 103) of their drives over the past nine weeks, the worst rate in the league.
• Steven Jackson played nine snaps in his Patriot debut, carrying on seven of them (31.8 percent of the team total). James White played 22 snaps and Brandon Bolden 27.
• Since Week 11, Tom Brady ranks 13th in points per game (19.3), 16th in passing points per attempt (.445) and 13th in passing yards per game (265.5) after ranking first, second and first in those marks through 10 weeks.
• Over that span, Brady has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt, down from the 67.8 percent and 8.2 Y/A clip he had Weeks 1-10.

Bust: Lamar Miller (under 3.0 yards per carry in three of his past five and volume concerns are always an issue while the team may take one real last look at Jay Ajayi), Ryan Tannehill (even when he has immense volume, his ceiling has barely scratched the surface of being a QB1)

Reasonable Return: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski (I’d trust using them in seasonal leagues that are ongoing still as New England is still playing to wrap up home field, but the dogs still might be called off at some point), Jarvis Landry (has 10 or more targets in 10 games, you know what you’re getting), Devante Parker (80 plus yards in three of his past five), James White (despite not seeing full usage in the ilk of Dion Lewis, he’s been a top-24 scorer in five of his past six games)

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