Axisa: McGriff productive but not HOF worthy

We’re zeroing in on the Jan. 6 reveal of the BBWAA 2016 Hall of Fame class, one certain to include Ken Griffey Jr. and maybe another player or two. As we lead up to the announcement, CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball scribes are running through the serious candidates one day at a time.

More HOF: One-and dones | Kendall | Griffey | Hoffman | Edmonds | Wagner | Trammell | Smith | Garciaparra | McGwire | Sosa | Clemens | Bonds | Schilling | Martinez | Mussina | Walker

For most of his 19-year career, Fred McGriff was one of the most reliable and consistently productive players in baseball. Only once from 1987-2002 did he fail to post a 110-plus OPS+ — that was a 106 OPS+ in 1997 — and the only time he failed to play 145-plus games were the strike-shortened 1994-95 seasons. He was in the lineup day after day after day.

And yet, despite all that production, McGriff is a borderline Hall of Famer at best, one who is on pace to again fall well short of the 75 percent needed for induction. As of this writing, McGriff has appeared on 24 of the 122 public Hall of Fame ballots collected by @NotMrTibbs, or 19.7 percent. This is his seventh year on the ballot and thus far he’s topped out at 23.9 percent of the vote.

How? How could a player who fell just short of 500 home runs while serving as one of the best run-producers of his generation — McGriff’s 7,777 plate appearances as a cleanup hitter are the second most in history (Eddie Murray: 8,775) — generate so little Hall of Fame support? That’s a difficult question to answer, really.

Second Half of his Career

McGriff became an everyday player in 1987 and, from 1987-94, he hit .285/.389/.542 (153 OPS+) with 36.6 WAR. He averaged 33 home runs and 89 RBI per season at a time when hitting 30 dingers was a really big deal. (The 1994 work stoppage makes his season averages look a little less impressive. McGriff had 34 homers and 94 RBI in 113 games in 1994.)

During the eight-season stretch, McGriff hit 17 homers more than any other player and was 8th in RBI and 11th in WAR. He received MVP votes seven times and topped out at fourth in the voting in 1993, when he finished behind Barry Bonds, Lenny Dykstra and David Justice.

McGriff’s peak was fantastic. He was among the most productive players in the game. That was not the case in the second half of his career. From 1995 through the end of his career in 2004, McGriff hit .284/.367/.482 (119 OPS+) with 15.9 WAR. He averaged a healthy 27 homers and 99 RBI as an everyday player from 1995-02.

From 1995 — his age 31 season — through the end of his career, McGriff was merely very good, not great. He dropped off considerably from his peak.

Always Overshadowed

McGriff was one of those guys who quietly went about his business and never really grabbed attention. He doesn’t have a famous signature moment that jumps to mind whenever you hear his name. If anything, McGriff is most memorable for a totally awesome nickname (Crime Dog) and a commercial:

There was never a point in his career when McGriff was considered the best first baseman in baseball. He was always among the best, but never considered the best. McGriff was overshadowed by Don Mattingly and Will Clark in the 1980s, then Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmeiro in the 1990s. By time his career started to wind down in the early 2000s, Jason Giambi, Albert Pujols and Todd Helton had emerged.

If there is a “fame” component to the Hall of Fame, McGriff doesn’t really have it. He was a boringly productive player and I mean that as a compliment. He quietly produced and was in no way controversial, plus spending most of his career in small markets (Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Devil Rays, Cubs, Dodgers) meant he never received the attention that comes with playing for a big market team. (He was the end of his career by time he got to Chicago and Los Angeles.)

Overall Numbers

McGriff retired as a career .284/.377/.509 (134 OPS+) hitter with 493 home runs, 1,550 RBI and 52.4 WAR. He led the league in homers twice (1989, 1992), led in OPS and OPS+ once (1989), and never led in RBI. You’d see his name in the homer and RBI top 10 lists each year, but never at the top. McGriff went to five All-Star Games but somehow only two during his 1987-94 peak.

Those 493 home runs are interesting. Once upon a time 500 homers meant automatic entry into Cooperstown. Had McGriff hung around long enough to pick up those extra seven homers, is he getting more Hall of Fame support right now? At the time, McGriff would have been the 26th player in history to hit 500 homers. But he was the 26th to hit 493 homers. Do the extra seven really make that much of a difference?

For what it’s worth, Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system says McGriff falls short of the established Hall of Fame standards for first basemen in terms of both career value and peak value. JAWS says McGriff’s career was on par with Mark Teixeira’s and a bit shy of John Olerud’s, for example.

McGriff was an extremely productive player for a very long time, but he lacked star power throughout his career. If you went back and told the story of baseball from 1985-2015, you could skip over McGriff’s career and not miss much. The same is not true of his contemporaries like Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell in terms of on-field performance.

Most players dream of having a career as good as McGriff’s. It was not a Hall of Fame caliber career, however.

Fred McGriff had a great career but isn’t Hall of Fame worthy. (USATSI)

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