NFL Week 17 Picks: Cardinals clip Seahawks, Vikings stun Packers – CBSSports.com
I have some bad news. We’ve reached the end of the regular season, which means no more picks after this week.
Actually, hold on a second, I’m reading the fine print in my contract, and apparently I have to make playoffs picks, too. So I guess this isn’t the last week.
Also, now that I’m looking at it, I probably should’ve read the fine print before I signed my contract because it looks like I owe CBS $8 for every Justin Bieber joke I made this year. That’s going to cost me some serious money. I probably should’ve negotiated that clause out of the deal. I guess this is why you should always hire a lawyer to look over your contracts instead of drinking Zima and signing them without even reading them. Lesson learned.
Anyway, sorry about that, I got sidetracked. Let’s talk football, and since it’s Week 17, let’s talk about the playoffs.
I was studying up on playoff scenarios before I went to bed last night, which is what I do every night, and I couldn’t get to sleep because I couldn’t stop staring at the Colts one and only scenario that gets them to the playoffs.
To get to the postseason, the Colts need nine things to go their way Sunday.
Colts are still alive. This is all they need. No sweat. pic.twitter.com/W2R5FatV2A
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) December 29, 2015
The Colts need help from the Jaguars, Falcons, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens, Broncos, Steelers and Raiders. All those teams need to win and then the Colts need to win. Now, I’m not good at math, but I have to say, I don’t think the odds are in Indy’s favor.
That doesn’t mean they can’t do it though.
The odds weren’t in Al Gore’s favor when he invented the Internet, but he still did that. No one thought Trent Dilfer would win more Super Bowl rings than Dan Marino, but that happened. Not to mention, no one thought ALF would go down as the greatest television comedy of all-time, but that happened, so anything’s possible.
We should all be rooting for the Colts to make it, though it won’t matter because the AFC South isn’t going anywhere in the postseason.
OK, I’ve stalled long enough, now it’s time to get to the last batch of regular-season picks.
Before we get to the picks though, here’s your weekly reminder that you can check out the picks from every CBSSports.com NFL Expert by clicking here.
The reason you should click over and check out the other experts this week is because it’s the final week of the regular season and if you don’t do it now, you’ll regret it for the rest of the year. Sure, there’s technically only a couple days left in the year, but you don’t want to take regret like that into 2016.
Anyway, let’s get to the picks, where the setup is slightly different this week.
Week 17 NFL Picks with playoff implications for both teams
This guy might get to stay dressed up until Feb. 7. (Instagram/KelownaShannon)
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Seattle (9-6) at Arizona (13-2)
Sunday, January 3, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
When these two teams played back in November, the Seahawks had every advantage: They were healthy, they were playing in Seattle and their defense even scored a touchdown. Somehow, that wasn’t enough.
This time around, things are slightly different: The Seahawks have no running game, they’re playing in Arizona and I’m 99 percent sure the Seahawks defense will not be scoring any touchdowns on Sunday.
If someone can lure Marshawn Lynch back into action with a bag of Skittles, the Seahawks have a chance, but there’s no guarantee that’s going to happen, so I’m going to have to pick the team quarterbacked by the guy who runs around in a bikini during pregame.
Well, it is Carson Palmer’s birthday…#GBvsAZ pic.twitter.com/be4vXJmq2H
— NFL (@NFL) December 27, 2015
By the way, if you disagree with this pick, that’s fine, but whatever you do, DO NOT BET $165,000 ON THE SEAHAWKS TO WIN because you might lose.
Man loses over $150K after betting on the Seahawks to beat the Rams – https://t.co/2YWsk7GWy5 https://t.co/IylbOKgBvv
— Gambling Daily (@GamblingDaily) December 28, 2015
The Pick: Cardinals 27-24 over Seahawks.
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Minnesota (10-5) at Green Bay (10-5)
Sunday, January 3, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
This is the weirdest game of the week because it matters, but it really doesn’t because both teams are already in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, if I’m the Packers, I want to lose this game, which sounds crazy, but sometimes crazy things work out perfectly, like the plot of Air Bud 2. I love that movie.
The problem for the Packers: If they’re going to win, they need to surprise the Vikings with a few new offensive tricks. The problem with that is the Packers wouldn’t have any tricks left for the playoffs. I think the Packers are going to save their tricks for the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Vikings don’t mind giving their offensive tricks away because they don’t do tricks, they just give the ball to Adrian Peterson as often as possible.
The advantage of losing for the Packers is that they’d avoid the Seahawks in the playoffs. Now, I’m not saying Green Bay’s thinking like that, but they’re thinking like that. If your offense is struggling (like Green Bay’s), would you rather face the NFL’s second-ranked defense (Seattle) in the wild-card round or the NFL’s 24th ranked defense (Redskins)? I’d vote not Seattle.
If the Packers lose, they get a guaranteed trip to Washington. They’re going to lose.
The Pick: Vikings 27-20 over Packers.
Note: If you think that entire theory sounds crazy and that I should stopping drinking tequila before I write, then I’ll leave you with the last week’s fact about cold-weather games: In the past 12 regular-season games that have kicked off in temperatures that were 30 degrees or below — including the Bengals-Broncos game Monday and the Giants-Vikings game Sunday — the team that rushed for more yardage has gone 11-1, which means Peterson is going to get 51 carries and the Vikings are going go win.
Clay Matthews has a lot to focus on this week. (Instagram/Mmainhardt)
Week 17 picks with playoff implications for only one team
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San Diego (4-11) at Denver (11-4)
Sunday, January 3, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Chargers are so banged up that Philip Rivers might have to play by himself, which, ironically enough, might give San Diego its best chance. Rivers is 4-2 in Denver since 2009. The Chargers have had a horrible season and his game is basically their Super Bowl, which is good news for Denver because we’ve all seen how the Chargers do when they’re in a Super Bowl.
The Pick: Broncos 24-10 over Chargers.
Thanks to the Jets, MetLife Stadium might not be empty during the playoffs. (Instagram/JennBars)
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New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If there’s anyone in this game who wants to win more than Rex Ryan, it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was the Bills’ starting quarterback from 2009-12 and they loved him so much that they gave him a six-year, $59 million extension in 2011. Like most of my relationships in college though, this thing didn’t last long and the Bills dumped him after the 2012 season. I don’t know what a mad Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like, but I do know I don’t want to pick against him. Also, whenever Rex Ryan’s coaching in a big game, I’m going to start picking the team that Rex Ryan’s not coaching. I’ve noted that for next year.
The Pick: Jets 23-20 over Bills.
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Baltimore (5-10) at Cincinnati (11-4)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
If I’m Marvin Lewis, the first thing I do at practice this week is put in film of the Ravens upset over Pittsburgh. Then after everyone has a chuckle about the fact the Steelers lost to Ryan Mallett, I make a serious face and say, “For the love of Paul Brown, please don’t lose to Ryan Mallett.” The Bengals have the third-best defense in the NFL and it’s hard to see them losing to a team that will be quarterbacked by a guy who’s only been on the Ravens roster since Dec. 15.
The Pick: Bengals 20-13 over Ravens.
The ‘Greatest Ever’ has had to carry the Patriots all season. (Instagram/alysestaiano)
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New England (12-3) at Miami (5-10)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The easiest pick to make every week is to see who the Dolphins are playing and then pick that team to win. I’m going to go ahead and do that this week. If the Patriots didn’t have anything to play for, I’d give the Dolphins a 4 percent chance of winning, but the Patriots do have something to play for (home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs), so I’m lowering that percentage to .0000004, which I think is about the same chance the Colts have of making the playoffs in that 9-way scenario from earlier.
The Pick: Patriots 31-17 over Dolphins.
Others:
Steelers 30-20 over Browns
Panthers 27-17 over Buccaneers
Chiefs 23-20 over Raiders
Week 17 picks where I’m not sure who to pick because one of the teams will likely be resting some of its starters
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Washington (8-7) at Dallas (4-11)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Four weeks ago, the Cowboys upset the Redskins in Washington in a primetime game that both team’s absolutely needed to win, so I think it’s safe to take the Cowboys in a game that neither team needs to win. This is a must-watch game if you’re related to either Colt McCoy or Kellen Moore, otherwise, taking your Christmas decorations down might be the better option if this is the game on in your area.
The Pick: Cowboys 20-17 over Redskins.
Week 17 games involving an AFC South team, so who knows who’s going to win?
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Tennessee (3-12) at Indianapolis (7-8)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Your choices in this game are: 1. Pick the team that will likely be starting its fourth-string quarterback (Colts) or 2. Pick the team that will likely be starting a quarterback (Zach Mettenberger) who’s never won a game in his career.
I’m going with the Colts, but only because I want to see them clinch the most improbable playoff berth in NFL history.
The Pick: Colts 13-10 over Titans.
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Jacksonville (5-10) at (8-7)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
In the final week of every NFL season, there’s always one upset that’s completely inexplicable. This won’t be that upset. The Pick: Texans 24-17 over Jaguars.
Week 17 pick: Loser goes to London
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Philadelphia (6-9) at New York Giants (6-9)
Sunday, January 3, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
If Vince McMahon were running the NFL, this is definitely the game that would’ve been flexed into the Sunday night slot. Forget that division title garbage between the Vikings and Packers, Eagles-Giants is the game with real implications because the loser is being sent to London next season, or as McMahon would call it, it’s a “Loser Leaves Town” game.
The third place NFC East team will be playing the Rams in London in 2016 and the loser of this game will finish in third place. If the NFL’s smart, this game will be on every channel in London on Sunday.
If McMahon was in charge, this game would be on Pay-Per-View and I’d gladly pay $39.95 to watch it, just like I did in 1992 when Ultimate Warrior beat Macho Man in a “Loser Leaves Town” retirement match.
As for this game, I trust Eli Manning slightly more than I trust Sam Bradford, which means the Eagles can start planning for London. The Pick: Giants 30-27 over Eagles.
Week 17 picks: No playoff implication picks
Falcons 34-27 over Saints
Rams 16-13 over 49ers
Last Week
Best Pick: Last week I picked the Jets to upset the Patriots and then the Jets went out and upset the Patriots. Did I know that Bill Belichick was going to go completely crazy at the end of regulation and let the Jets have the ball first in overtime? Of course not, no one could’ve predicted that.
I don’t care what the math says, if your choices are: Give Tom Brady the ball in overtime or don’t give Tom Brady the ball in overtime, you always go with choice one.
What Belichick did would basically be like if Kate Upton offered me her phone number and I was like, “No, I’d like to kick.” That would confuse her and then she’d take her number back and probably end up with Ryan Fitzpatrick. You see, Ryan Fitzpatrick wins in both situations, mine and Belichick’s.
And yes, half the reason I mentioned Kate Upton was so I could use a picture of her. Unfortunately, I can’t find a picture of her and Fitzpatrick, so I’m going to have to roll with a picture of her and the other New York quarterback.
Oh hey Kate Upton and Eli Manning. #SamsungSmartTV pic.twitter.com/5aaq8g9bCP
— Arielle Calderon (@Arielle07) March 21, 2013
Worst Pick: The Dolphins have basically been imploding all season and for some reason, I still picked them to beat the Colts on Sunday. I have no clue why. I think it was a pity thing.
My biggest problem here is that I don’t follow Miko Grimes on Twitter because if I did, there’s no way I would’ve picked the Dolphins to win. Miko, who’s married to Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes, knew Miami had no chance against Indy.
I think Brent Grimes’ wife gives the Ryan Tannehill extension a grade of F. #Dolphins https://t.co/EbzqatxrAa pic.twitter.com/sH3NixV8gc
— John Breech (@johnbreech) December 28, 2015
If I HAD KNOWN RYAN TANNEHILL WAS GETTING SCHOOLED BY PRACTICE SQUAD PLAYERS I WOULD’VE PICKED THE COLTS TO WIN BY 40.
On the other hand, Miko could be making that up because she does absolutely hate Ryan Tannehill.
I’m guessing Miko, Brent and Ryan won’t be spending New Year’s Eve together.
I’ll see you guys in 2016.
Picks Record
Straight-up in Week 16: 11-5
SU Overall: 143-97
Against the spread in Week 16: 8-8
ATS Overall: 118-122
Exact score predictions: 2
You can find John Breech on Twitter or on Facebook and if he’s not doing one of those two things, he’s reading the rest of the fine print in his contract.
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