NFL Picks Week 17: Bengals, Steelers win; Saints lose to Falcons – NOLA.com
Hey, at least I warned you. It was most definitely a ho-hum Week 16 after a fantastic Week 15.
However, y’all ready to finish the regular season with a bang? I have a good feeling about finishing strong.
There aren’t usually a ton of surprises in Week 17, especially when playoff berths are on the line. The teams that need to win usually do, and more often than not they cover. The bad teams, meanwhile, play like, well, bad teams.
As far as our contest goes, it’s coming down to the wire. I want to thank everyone who participated – especially to those who were regulars. We had a fantastic response for the second straight season, and I’m already looking forward to next year.
I will continue my picks into the playoffs, but this is the last week of the contest. Winners announced next week. Thanks again, and good luck!
(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and top readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to Shelton Gilmore for being the Week 16 winner and the overall leader, Robert Hobbs.)
Here we go with Week 17 (home team in bold):
16 points: CINCINNATI over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon
After blowing a lead in Denver on Monday night, you better believe this team will be focused with a possible bye on the line in the AFC playoffs. As well as the Ravens played last week, this defense they’re facing Sunday is a completely different animal. Against the spread: Bengals minus-7.5.
Last week: Kansas City over Cleveland (W). 16-point record: 6-2. ATS, Chiefs -12.5 (L)
15 points: PITTSBURGH over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
Have the Steelers blown their shot at the playoffs with a ridiculous loss at Baltimore? It seems like a strong possibility, but they should come out strong with their lives on the line in the finale. A high-scoring affair, as Big Ben has a fantastic comeback week. Against the spread: Steelers minus-10.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over Baltimore (L). 15-point record: 5-4. ATS, Steelers -10.5 (L)
14 points: CAROLINA over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
We’ve been saying for weeks that the Panthers wouldn’t finish perfect. Now that they have that out of their systems, they can go out and blast the Buccaneers into next season. Against the spread: Panthers minus-10.5.
Last week: Seattle over St. Louis (L). 14-point record: 12-3. ATS, Rams +13.5 (W)
13 points: NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI, Sunday at noon
Um, what the hell was that last week, Belichick? Not that he would ever tell anyone. I wonder if when he goes home and his wife asks him a question about the game he says … “We thought it was the best thing for our football team. Now roll over and go to sleep.” Anyway, no chance they mess this one up – no matter who does or doesn’t play. Against the spread: Dolphins plus-8.5.
Last week: New England over NY Jets (L). 13-point record: 11-5. ATS, Patriots -3.5 (L)
12 points: HOUSTON over JACKSONVILLE, Sunday at noon
Other than the Patriots, maybe no other team has overcome as many injuries to keep themselves in contention. And no way their defense is going to let it slip away now. Against the spread: Jaguars plus-6.5.
Last week: Carolina over Atlanta (L). 12-point record: 10-6. ATS, Falcons +7.5 (W)
11 points: DENVER over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
With the huge comeback against the Bengals, the Broncos now have themselves back into a position to clinch a first-round bye and even the No. 1 seed if the Patriots were to slip up. Brock Osweiler gets Denver through in a low-scoring affair. Against the spread: Broncos minus-7.5.
Last week: Houston over Tennessee (W). 11-point record: 11-5. ATS, Texans -3.5 (W)
10 points: INDIANAPOLIS over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon
While the Colts remain alive – barely – the big question now is who the heck is going to play quarterback? While I don’t think it matters because Tennessee is that bad, I don’t think it matters because Indy isn’t going to the playoffs. Against the spread: Colts minus-6.5.
Last week: Detroit over San Francisco (W). 10-point record: 13-3. ATS, 49ers +7.5 (L)
9 points: ST. LOUIS over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
While things couldn’t have gone worse for the 49ers this season with injuries and off-the-field problems, one would think major changes have to be in store for this once-proud franchise. Meanwhile, the Rams are a team on the rise, but will they continue to rise with Jeff Fisher at the helm? And will they continue in St. Louis? Against the spread: Rams minus-3.5.
Last week: Buffalo over Dallas (W). 9-point record: 7-9. ATS, Cowboys +6.5 (L)
8 points: ATLANTA over NEW ORLEANS, Sunday at noon
Don’t tell me you were fooled by last week’s performance? No, I’m not talking about the Falcons defeating the previously undefeated Panthers – I’m talking about the Saints over the up-and-down Jaguars (who’s 0-4 against the NFC South). Although Atlanta is eliminated, they’ll still have something to prove at home, and Julio Jones might rack up 200 receiving yards. P.S. Why in the world is Drew Brees playing? Can you say “pad dem numbers?” Against the spread: Falcons minus-3.5.
Last week: Oakland over San Diego (W). 8-point record: 10-6. ATS, Chargers +5.5 (W)
7 points: NY JETS over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
Guess all the Jets needed was a change at the top. And their reject is going to help them finish off the job and get into the playoffs, as Rex Ryan ends another year out of postseason play. Jets could be a dangerous team with the right matchup in Week 18. Against the spread: Bills plus-3.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Miami (W). 7-point record: 12-4. ATS, Colts +1.5 (W)
6 points: NY GIANTS over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at noon
This might seem like a meaningless game, but I have a feeling this is the last for a wonderful coach in Ton Coughlin. While we’re at it, if the Eagles were smart, they’d make a change at the top, too. But they don’t seem to be all that smart. Going with the best team in this one, and that’s the G-Men. Against the spread: Giants minus-3.5.
Last week: Tampa Bay over Chicago (L). 6-point record: 11-5. ATS, Bucs -2.5 (L)
5 points: GREEN BAY over MINNESOTA, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
Throughout the season, the Packers have been nearly unbeatable at home, while the Vikings have had their issues against teams with winning records. That might change next year, but Green Bay isn’t going to lose a division title on the frozen tundra. Against the spread: Packers minus-3.5.
Last week: Philadelphia over Washington (L). 5-point record: 9-7. ATS, Redskins +3.5 (W)
4 points: WASHINGTON over DALLAS, Sunday at noon
Now that the Redskins already have clinched the NFC East with their gaudy 8-7 record (yes, I know what gaudy means – I am being facetious), this has turned into a meaningless game. Doesn’t mean Washington won’t come out and fight hard to finish with a winning record. How you like that?!? Against the spread: Redskins plus-3.5.
Last week: Minnesota over NY Giants (W). 4-point record: 8-8. ATS, Vikings -4.5 (W)
3 points: ARIZONA over SEATTLE, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
It has been more than two months since the Cardinals have lost a football game. And it might be nine or 10 more before they lose another. Arizona is hoping for a Carolina slip up so they can clinch the top seed in the NFC. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-4.5.
Last week: Jacksonville over New Orleans (L). 3-point record: 5-11. ATS, Jaguars +3.5 (L)
2 points: DETROIT over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
How is anyone supposed to figure out the Bears? But I do know this: the Lions are playing pretty darned good football, albeit way too little, too late. Against the spread: Lions, even.
Last week: Denver over Cincinnati (W). 2-point record: 9-7. ATS, Bengals +3.5 (W)
1 point: OAKLAND over KANSAS CITY, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
My gut told me I needed a solid upset to finish my 2015 regular season strong. And why not? The Chiefs had to have a bit of a letdown when the Broncos charged back Monday night to burst their bubble. I’m telling you now: Oakland is not only a contender for a playoff spot in 2016, but an overall player in the AFC title race. Against the spread: Raiders plus-6.5.
Last week: Arizona over Green Bay (W). 1-point record: 7-9. ATS, Cardinals -4.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 9-7. Season: 145-95 (.604).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 9-7. Season: 116-124 (.483).
POINT TOTALS
Week 16: 68 /136 possible points. Weekly rank: 75 out of 96. (Gulp.) Overall: 1,262/1,793. Overall rank: 14 of 256.
Week 16 READERS winner: Shelton Gilmore, 101/136.
Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 1,311/1,793.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 16: 9-7 straight up, 9-7 ATS
Week 15: 13-3 straight up, 11-5 ATS
Week 14: 11-5 straight up, 8-8 ATS
Week 13: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 ATS
Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS
Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS
Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS
Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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