Yankees choice: Best bullpen ever, or one excellent trade chip
New York Yankees games are only going to last six innings next season. Following the club’s blockbuster trade for Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, the opposing team will be all but doomed once the seventh inning begins.
As currently constructed, Chapman will join Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller to form one of the most feared trios baseball has ever seen. The Yankees could employ one of the best bullpens of all-time next season because of those three.
It is, however, worth wondering whether this is the strategy the team should employ next year. While having a dominant bullpen is great, the Yankees could use some improvements in the rotation, and it would be nice to pick up some younger offensive pieces.
[Related: The Yankees should hope Aroldis Chapman receives a lengthy suspension]
Prior to acquiring Chapman, it was rumored that the club was willing to deal Miller. Considering the market for relievers this offseason, dealing Miller could net the Yankees multiple players who could help patch various holes. With Chapman now on the team, the Yankees would still feature a fairly elite bullpen.
That puts the Yankees in a difficult position: Should they keep all three players and employ one of the greatest bullpens of all-time, or are they better off trading Miller to improve other areas?
It’s not hyperbole to say the Yankees could have one of the best bullpens in recent memory in 2016. The team was already in a good place last year, tying for second with a 5.3 fWAR from their relievers. Adding Chapman, who posted a 2.5 fWAR last year, to that mix, gives the team the second, third and sixth best relievers in the game according to fWAR.
Since 1969, the year the mound was raised, the best bullpen ever constructed was the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers. The club’s pen boasted a 9.3 fWAR, much of which came from Eric Gagne, who was responsible for a ridiculous 4.5 fWAR that year.
In order for the Yankees to actually have the best bullpen since 1969, they would need to add 4 fWAR this offseason. That’s not going to happen. Chapman, however, is a huge addition, and could give them close to a top-20 bullpen since 1969. Using just fWAR is a crude way to make this determination, but there’s opportunity for this to be one of the best bullpens in recent memory.
Even if you don’t like the advanced metrics, the traditional numbers look pretty impressive.
Considering some of the issues in the team’s rotation, this could be a major advantage. Of the four veterans in the Yankees rotation, CC Sabathia led the team with 167 1/3 innings. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi all missed time due to injuries.
Those four will return in 2016, and all come with the same concerns. Tanaka is still pitching through a tear in his elbow, Pineda and Eovaldi have yet to throw 200 innings in a single season and Sabathia is a another year older. Luis Severino looked like a promising add in the middle of the season, but the team may want to limit his innings in 2016.
[Elsewhere: Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra is now a free agent]
With a dominant bullpen, those issues aren’t as much of a concern. Those players won’t have to be pushed as hard early, meaning Pineda, Tanaka and Severino might be fresh during the second half. Sabathia is no longer a dominant innings-eater, so this covers up some of those issues. The club has some depth in Ivan Nova, but he was limited to 94 innings after coming off surgery and probably won’t see a giant increase this season.
At the same time, why go into the season with so much uncertainty in the rotation if the club can bring in talent on the trade market? That’s where dealing Miller starts to look desirable. The club could conceivably pick up a young starter, plus other pieces, to help shore up the rest of the team.
Based on the packages the San Diego Padres received for Craig Kimbrel and the Philadelphia Phillies got for Ken Giles, it’s conceivable to think the Yankees could get four players back in a deal for Miller.
While that sounds great, getting enough talent to help right now is where things get tough. Getting a young, talented pitcher who can throw 170 innings for Miller would be excellent, but it’s unlikely to happen. Teams don’t just trade young, talented pitchers, even if dominant relievers are involved.
Vincent Velasquez fits that profile the most of any player involved in the Kimbrel and Giles trades, and he comes with a considerable amount of questions. He tossed less than 100 innings last season and it’s unclear whether he can succeed in the majors as a starter. The Phillies don’t need him to take on a huge role next season, so they can afford to wait as he develops.
The Yankees wouldn’t have that ability. The club made the playoffs as a wild card team last year, and will likely attempt to contend again in 2016. If they deal Miller, they’ll likely be looking for at least two players who could help them immediately. Getting a Velasquez type would help with the team’s depth, but that might not be enough.
In that sense, it’s probably best for the Yankees to sign one or two veteran starters who could eat innings once injuries occur. This is far from the sexiest team-building plan, but it gives them useful rotation fill-ins, and keeps the club’s dominant bullpen in place.
[Elsewhere: Are the Cardinals rattled by the fast-rising Cubs?]
All of this, of course, is dependent on whether Chapman receives a lengthy suspension following a domestic incident in October. Our own Jeff Passan covered the situation here, and broke the original story along with Tim Brown early in December. Major League Baseball introduced a new domestic violence policy last season, and Chapman will be one of the first players subject to punishment from new commissioner Rob Manfred. As of right now, there’s no way to predict how Manfred will handle the situation.
Even after the trade for Chapman, the Yankees still have significant questions. Some of those concerns, however, have been quieted by the team’s ability to shut teams down after the sixth inning. It might be risky, and it’s probably not the ideal way to build a club, but it worked for the Kansas City Royals last year.
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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
