Playoff bowl picks: Clemson vs. Oklahoma, Alabama vs. Michigan St. – CBSSports.com
New Year’s Eve is around the corner, which means the College Football Playoff is upon us.
Will underdog No. 1 Clemson hold off No. 4 Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl semifinal, or can the Sooners’ momentum propel them to a win over the Tigers in Miami?
Can the No. 3 Spartans topple the mighty No. 2 Crimson Tide, or will Alabama running back Derrick Henry be able to break Michigan State’s strong defense?
We hope to answer all those questions with CFP picks from all six of our college football experts.
Jerry Palm on why Clemson will win — and cover: Clemson will go over Oklahoma. It seems like nobody is giving the No. 1 team much of a chance against the Sooners, but they should be. The Tigers aren’t No. 1 for nothing.
Clemson is the most balanced team in the playoffs in terms of the quality of its offense and defense. The Tigers have the 11th-ranked offense, led by Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson. Only the Sooners’ offense ranks higher among playoff teams (sixth). On defense, the Tigers come in at No. 7, which should not be a surprise. Defense has been Clemson’s bread and butter in recent years. Alabama, with the nation’s second-ranked defense, is the only playoff team rated higher … but we’re not picking the national title game here, just the semifinal.
Oklahoma has won on the back of its prolific offense. Clemson has shown it can with either way, and that’s why I like the Tigers on New Year’s Eve.
Chip Patterson on why Oklahoma will win — and cover: At their best, these highly-anticipated end-of-year college football showdowns resemble a chess match. The coaches have so much more time to prepare for the opposition that often the game is decided not by the first hand played but how each team counters the other. That’s why I’ve got Oklahoma not only in this game but as my current CFP title winner; not because I think the Sooners are the best team in the playoff, but because no team is better suited to respond as the chess game unfolds.
Baker Mayfield’s got a creative style of play that can be hard to defend for anyone, but even if the Clemson defense can keep Mayfield in the pocket, they better be solid up the middle for Samaje Perine and/or Joe Mixon running behind an offensive line that has gotten better and better. Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander is one of the ACC’s best one-on-one defenders, but the Sooners have a sneaky-balanced group of receivers with Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Durron Neal and tight end Mark Andrews.
However, there is one piece on the chessboard that will stress Oklahoma in a way that no player has this season. If the Sooners’ defensive front cannot put pressure on Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson — or at least contain him in the run game — then all of the advantages in the world might not be enough to take down undefeated Clemson. Just because the pieces are there — Eric Striker, Charles Tapper, Jordan Evans, Dominique Alexander — doesn’t mean the answers will be, but why even tee it up if we know the answers?
Tom Fornelli on why Michigan State will win — and cover: While I’m not nearly as confident in Michigan State beating Alabama outright as I am in the Spartans covering the spread, I certainly think it’s a lot more likely than the oddsmakers do. Let’s just look at the matchup. Derrick Henry may have won the Heisman, but Alabama’s offense basically plays into the hands of Michigan State’s defense. The Spartans wants you to run the ball because their defensive weakness is in the secondary.
Alabama will be all too happy to hand the ball to Henry over and again, but plenty have tried that against Michigan State and failed. Baylor faltered in last year’s Cotton Bowl, as did Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa this year. Alabama’s passing attack, meanwhile, hasn’t really been a downfield threat, further playing into Michigan State’s hands on defense.
I don’t think Alabama is going to score many points against the Spartans, and I think the biggest question mark will be how many points Sparty can put up on the Tide. Either way, though, they’ll stay within nine points.
Robby Kalland on why Alabama will win — but not cover: It all comes down to Alabama having the best defense in the country by a significant margin. In Football Outsiders’ Defensive S&P+ ratings, the Crimson Tide are first in every major category but one (passing downs, where they were a paltry third in the nation). The overall S&P+ rating is an adjusted points per game and the difference between No. 1 Alabama (7.6) and No. 2 Michigan (13.0) was larger than the gap from Michigan to No. 10 Washington (17.6).
The Tide’s dominance starts with the front seven, which goes two-deep at pretty much every position with NFL talent. Alabama’s defensive line was the most dominant front in the nation, finishing No. 2 in adjusted line yards against (measuring rushing yards allowed adjusted for opponent) and No. 3 in adjusted sack rate (measuring the defense’s sack rate, adjusted for opponent). No other team in the nation finished in the top 10 in both categories.
This year’s defense is as dominant a group as Alabama’s had under Nick Saban, and historically, Saban teams have dominated pro-style offenses. The Tide have not lost to a non-spread team since a 9-6 overtime loss to LSU in November 2011. Michigan State was a better passing team than running team this season, and quarterback Connor Cook might have the opportunity to make a few plays, but it’s going to be a struggle to consistently put together sustained drives against the Tide.
To beat Alabama, a team has to force turnovers and create explosive plays. The last three teams to beat Alabama ranked No. 1 (2014 Ohio State), No. 2 (2015 Ole Miss), and No. 42 (2014 Ole Miss) in creating explosive plays during their respective seasons. Michigan State was No. 72 in 2015 with just 16 plays of 30 or more yards (118th nationally).
The Spartans are talented and could keep this close, but this is a team that had to grind out wins against its toughest competition. Doing that against Alabama is nearly impossible and without the threat of big plays, it’s hard to see them upsetting the Tide outright.
Who will win the College Football Playoff semifinals? (USATSI)
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
