NFL Winners and Losers: Aaron Rodgers far from his MVP level

Before trying to figure out what has happened to the Aaron Rodgers we are used to seeing, let’s acknowledge that the following excuses do have some validity:

Rodgers lost No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson to a knee injury in the preseason. Randall Cobb has been strangely quiet all season, perhaps because of a preseason shoulder injury. Davante Adams has struggled mightily. Ted Thompson’s allergy toward free agency meant the Packers didn’t get a quick infusion of talent, which would have been nice at some spots, especially tight end. On Sunday, Rodgers’ line was patched together and dangerously leaky because of injuries. The play calling all season, particularly in route concepts and creative formations, has been lacking.

So we’re clear, the Green Bay Packers’ problems are not all on Rodgers. Far from it. But after a rough 38-8 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, which exposed a lot of Packers deficiencies that were obvious to anyone watching this team critically the past few weeks, it’s also fair to wonder how much blame Rodgers deserves. He’s not playing well.

Rodgers’ interception with about a minute left in the first half, with the Packers trailing just 10-0 and driving, was a mistake a veteran quarterback can’t make. He also had two fumbles returned by Arizona for touchdowns. It was an ugly day, but there haven’t been too many pretty days lately for the reigning MVP.

Rodgers’ receivers aren’t great, but Cam Newton doesn’t want to hear it. Oh, and Newton hasn’t been bothered much after losing Kelvin Benjamin this preseason. Russell Wilson lost Jimmy Graham. Tom Brady lost Julian Edelman. Ben Roethlisberger lost an important outlet in All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. Injuries happen. One injury, even to a player as good as Nelson, shouldn’t totally destroy an offense. And remember when the refrain was that it didn’t matter who Rodgers was throwing to?

The offense led by a two-time MVP had 37 passing yards at halftime against a Cardinals defense that is good, but was also without defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, its best player. The Cardinals defense isn’t the 2000 Baltimore Ravens; it gave up 318 passing yards to Blaine Gabbert less than a month ago. Yet it completely shut down Rodgers. And Rodgers couldn’t create the big plays he has made in years past.

The Packers are 26th in the NFL in passing yards, at 215.3 per game. That’s 24 fewer yards per game than the Houston Texans, who have used four quarterbacks this season and started Brandon Weeden on Sunday. If that stat isn’t your cup of tea, the Packers are 12th in passer rating and tied for 27th in average yards per pass. Nobody wants to totally cross the Packers off the list of championship contenders because of the possibility Rodgers gets hot and carries them in the playoffs, but it has been a long time since he played at that level. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a win since Sept. 28. If he hadn’t completed a miraculous Hail Mary against Detroit, his season would look even worse at this point.

Rodgers has missed passes he hasn’t missed in years past. His accuracy has been off. His line hasn’t been great, but he seems more aware of the rush than ever before. His offensive line didn’t help much Sunday, but his hesitancy in getting rid of the ball didn’t help as he took eight sacks. Part of that is clearly a lack of trust in his receivers getting open. Nobody who has seen Adams drop passes or Cobb disappear from games would say Rodgers has a great supporting cast. But while that’s a factor, Rodgers just hasn’t played at a level he has set for himself through his great career.

The Packers go into a Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings with the NFC North on the line. The Packers are 4-5 since a 6-0 start, and one of the wins was the Lions miracle. Green Bay has looked like a mediocre team, at best, and seems like a good candidate for a one-and-done playoff trip. That’s a massive disappointment for a team that missed the Super Bowl last year because of an all-time choke job in the final minutes at Seattle. However, we all know the script so let’s repeat it: Sure, but if Rodgers gets hot, maybe he can carry Green Bay to a Super Bowl. That’s true, but do you see any signs that might be coming?

Here are the rest of the winners and losers from Week 16:

WINNERS

Tim Hightower: What a story Hightower is writing, albeit for a New Orleans Saints team that is far from the playoff race.

In 2011 he tore his ACL. That injury and a subsequent infection kept him out of football for three seasons. That’s an eternity in the NFL. You won’t find many players who are out of the game for three years and find their way back in.

But Hightower did. And injuries afforded him a shot to start for the Saints. On Sunday, Hightower’s story got even better, with 122 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a Saints win. He looks a lot quicker than most 29-year-old backs. He looks quicker than plenty of 22-year-old backs, too.

Who knows what will happen beyond this season for Hightower. But the fact that he’s back and playing as well as he is, that’s one of the NFL’s best stories this season.

The New England Patriots: In the big picture, Sunday’s loss probably won’t matter for the Patriots. You have to assume they’ll beat a terrible Miami Dolphins team next week and get the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

But the New York Jets’ win and the Pittsburgh Steelers loss might matter a lot to New England.

If you asked any rational football fan who posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the playoffs, it would be hard to find one that would say the Jets are more dangerous than the Steelers. The Steelers (most weeks anyway) can score enough points to beat anyone. But now that the Jets have a clear path to the playoffs after a win and the Steelers’ inexplicable loss to the Ravens, the Patriots’ road to another Super Bowl is a little clearer.

I’m not saying that New England’s curious decision to kick off to start overtime against the Jets was done with the playoff picture in mind, but it might be a nice unintended consequence of taking a loss on Sunday.

The St. Louis Rams, I guess: If the ultimate goal of every season was simply to have a few really great, quality wins, the Rams would be raising banners every September.

The Rams can beat anyone in the NFL. They’ve shown that a few times the last couple years. They always end up with some wins against some of the best teams in the NFL. This season, they had a road win against the Arizona Cardinals, who might be the NFL’s best team. In Week 1, they got a home win against the Seattle Seahawks, the reigning NFC champs. And on Sunday, they went to Seattle and swept the Seahawks, one of the NFL’s hottest teams.

That’s great. But what’s not so great is that the Rams are just 7-8 and won’t sniff the playoffs. How does a team get three wins against the Cardinals and Seahawks and four against everyone else? So while it’s nice to get a win Sunday against a good team, it also has to remind Rams fans how utterly frustrating this team is.

LOSERS

Mike Tomlin: I’m not saying Tomlin should be fired for Sunday’s loss, or anything like that. But if you’re ranking the worst losses in the NFL this season, the Steelers falling to the Baltimore Ravens tops the list.

The Ravens were starting Ryan Mallett at quarterback. This should have been a destruction. And the Steelers lost 20-17, and it would have been worse but a Ravens pick-six was called back due to an offsides penalty. Pittsburgh couldn’t move the ball, after weeks of being the hottest offense in the NFL. The Steelers are probably going to miss the playoffs after losing that game. There’s no way they should have been so ill-prepared to play on Sunday, with everything they had riding on winning the final two regular-season games.

Tomlin and the Steelers had some inexplicable losses last year as well, but they were forgotten because Pittsburgh rallied to win the AFC North. Making the playoffs is out of their control now. The Steelers need the Jets to lose next week or the Broncos to lose twice to have a chance at the postseason. If the Steelers, who looked like a very dangerous team in the AFC playoffs before Sunday, miss the playoffs they’ll replay that Ravens loss in their minds for a long time. It will be a great opportunity missed.

Seattle Seahawks: It’s possible Sunday’s loss to the Rams was just a team that knew it didn’t have a ton to play for and is just biding its time for when games really matter. After you’ve played in two straight Super Bowls, it’s not that easy to get up for every regular-season game.

Still, losing to the Rams at home as double-digit favorites isn’t the best thing for momentum, if you believe in that.

The Seahawks didn’t look sharp. The line didn’t protect Russell Wilson well. A fumble was returned by the Rams’ defense for a touchdown. Seattle had no running game, with 26 yards on 15 carries by tailbacks. That’s troubling, because nobody can be sure if or when Marshawn Lynch will return.

Maybe it’s nothing at all to be concerned about, but for a week it seems like the notion that the Seahawks are the secret team to beat in the NFC might have been a bit premature.

The Colts’ AFC South chances: If you want to see what the NFL playoff scenarios version of a lottery ticket looks like, check out the Colts’ chances of winning the AFC South, from our playoff picture:

Would clinch the South and No. 4 seed with a win against the Titans and Texans loss to the Jaguars and Bengals loss at the Broncos and Bengals loss to the Ravens and Jets loss at the Bills and Saints loss at the Falcons and Broncos win against the Chargers and Dolphins win against the Patriots and Chiefs loss to the Raiders and Steelers loss at the Browns.

Chin up, Indianapolis, you’re still in it! You just need 10 different things to happen to make it!

Week 17: It’s just one of those years in which the stars align in a certain way and there won’t be much intrigue going into the final week.

The Bengals-Broncos game Monday night will likely determine who is the No. 2 seed in the AFC. And if the Broncos lose, the AFC West will be undecided going into Week 17. The Packers and Vikings will play for the NFC North title, and that’s important and a good “Sunday Night Football” finale. But what else?

We know all six playoff teams in the NFC, and three of the division winners. Then we’ll wait for upsets. To see if the Buffalo Bills can beat the Jets, to keep the Steelers’ hopes alive. Perhaps the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can knock off the Carolina Panthers and give the Arizona Cardinals a shot at the No. 1 seed. Or maybe that weird Colts scenario comes to pass and they’ll steal the AFC South.

But really there won’t be many games that have a lot of meaning next Sunday. This isn’t what the parity-hungry NFL ever has in mind for its final week. 

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab