I know that I am an idiot when it comes to gambling. To counteract this, I pick my five weekly games in the Westgate SuperContest for Team Oddsshark based off my gut feeling as an average NFL fan. Then, I reverse them all at the last second. I fade myself. Last week was a huge week for idiots in Vegas as just about every favorite won and covered. Sports books lost millions, and the result as it pertains to this column was its first 0-5 week of the season. But nature and sports handicapping have a way of evening things out, so if you’re looking for a gambling columnist that can guarantee that will NOT go 0-5 this week, you could do a lot worse than looking here.*

*I have never taken a statistics class in my life.

Last week: 0-5

On the season: 37-37-1

This week’s bets (home team is in CAPS)

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Bears

It’s the end of the season and if I’m going to be making up any ground whatsoever it’s going to have to be by betting on the 1:00 p.m. Fox games that are buried in the TV listings with a houseplant and a DJ3000 as the announcers. I don’t feel like the Bucs should be favored by three points over anyone besides maybe the Titans, but hey, here we are.

For all the jokes being made at the Bears expense, they have been a respectable 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games, while the Buccaneers have only managed to go 5-11 ATS in their last 16 at Raymond James. From the standpoint of a lazy fan such as myself, it typically takes a couple years to wash the stink off any team that finishes 3-13 or worse, so I’m going to choose to ignore the fact that Tampa Bay has 6 wins and bet on the Bears. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Buccaneers -3.

FALCONS (+6.5) over Panthers

I’m still very angry at Carolina after they nearly collapsed last week. They were up by 28 points late in the third quarter and somehow managed to let New York come back and tie it. If Rivera had just taken Cam out of the game Coughlin would have reciprocated with Eli, and I would have been counting my money. It was the only bet I made that ended up being on the side of the public, and the only result that ended up being on the side of the sports books.

But the best way to shake your fear is to get back on that horse, and all the trends say that the Panthers are the smart bet here. Carolina is 8-3 ATS in their last 11, and Atlanta is 1-9 in their last 10. It’s an interesting game because both teams still have a lot to play for — the Panthers can wrap up home-field advantage with a win, and the Falcons need to win out (and get a lot of help) to make the playoffs. The line is currently at 7, but when it came out they were giving 6 and the hook so took the Panthers. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Falcons +6.5.

MORON SPECIAL OF THE YEAR ALERT:
Jaguars (-2.5) over SAINTS

That’s right. I took the Jaguars as ROAD FAVORITES against the Saints. Just about every sportsbook in the country had the Saints open up as 3-point favorites, but the Supercontest lines came out when Drew Brees’ status was still up in the air. Well as the week progressed, so did Brees’ health, and now I’m stuck with a betting slip on Jacksonville to go into the Superdome, and not only win, but cover a damn spread against Sean Payton.

This is probably the dumbest bet I, or anyone else with a platform to publish a gambling column online, will ever make. Don’t get me wrong, the Jags are capable of winning this game, but from a handicapping standpoint, this is just awful, awful stuff.

TITANS (+4) over Texans

Just when you thought I couldn’t get any dumber, here I am betting on Tennessee. You want to hear some miserable stats about the Titans? Ok here goes:

They’re 1-11 STRAIGHT UP in their last 12 at home.

They’re 3-16-2 against the spread in their last 21 home games.

They’re coached by Mike Mularkey.

2015 has been the year of the backup QB and there is no more backup QB match-up than Zach Mettenberger and Brandon Weeden. Tennessee’s playing for draft position and the Texans are playing for a playoff spot, so I feel quite comfortable taking Houston in this one. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Titans +4.

SEAHAWKS (-13.5) over Rams

The Seahawks have been on a roll due to some historically good play by Russell Wilson. The QB has been throwing touchdowns at a record pace and the net result has helped Seattle to a 5-0 record ATS aided in part by games against the 49ers, Browns, and Ravens, three of the weaker defenses in the game.

Meanwhile, anyone on the Rams defense who wears a jersey over the number 70 has the potential to turn Wilson’s day into a nightmare. Aaron Donald in particular is playing as well as any other lineman in the game. If they can figure out a medium-term solution to their decade-long QB woes, they could ride that defense and Todd Gurley for the next five years. The Rams MO always has them playing up to their competition one week and then down the next, so at the very least I expect them to be able to hang within 10 points of Seattle. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my bet at the last second to Seahawks -13.5.