College Football Bowl Picks 2015: Predictions on Most Overlooked Games Remaining – Bleacher Report
As the College Football Playoff finally approaches, it’s easy to disregard the rest of the wonderful bowl season that awaits college football fans.
But remember, the College Football Playoff also represents the end of college football for approximately eight long months. Therefore, it’s important to stop and smell the roses.
In this case, the roses are things like the Russell Athletic and Liberty Bowls.
No, not every game features teams with double-digit wins, but each bowl game should be cherished as college football is preparing to go into its hibernation season. Just remember, solid college football is better than no college football.
Here’s a look at the remaining games on the slate and what to expect in some of the more under-appreciated games coming up.
Date | Time (ET) | Bowl | Matchup | Location | TV |
Dec. 28 | 2:30 p.m. | Military Bowl | Pitt vs. Navy | Annapolis | ESPN |
Dec. 28 | 5 p.m. | Quick Lane Bowl | Central Michigan vs. Minnesota | Detroit | ESPN2 |
Dec. 29 | 2 p.m. | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | California vs. Air Force | Fort Worth | ESPN |
Dec. 29 | 5:30 p.m. | Russell Athletic Bowl | North Carolina vs. Baylor | Orlando | ESPN |
Dec. 29 | 7:30 p.m. | NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl | Nevada vs. Colorado State | Tucson | TBD |
Dec. 29 | 9 p.m. | AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl | Texas Tech vs. LSU | Houston | ESPN |
Dec. 30 | Noon | Birmingham Bowl | Memphis vs. Auburn | Birmingham | ESPN |
Dec. 30 | 3:30 p.m. | Belk Bowl | NC State vs. Mississippi State | Charlotte | ESPN |
Dec. 30 | 7 p.m. | Music City Bowl | Louisville vs. Texas A&M | Nashville | ESPN |
Dec. 30 | 10:30 p.m. | Holiday Bowl | Wisconsin vs. USC | San Diego | ESPN |
Dec. 31 | Noon | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Houston vs. Florida State | Atlanta | ESPN |
Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | Cotton Bowl | Michigan State vs. Alabama | Arlington | ESPN |
Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | Orange Bowl | Oklahoma vs. Clemson | Miami | ESPN |
Jan. 1 | Noon | Outback Bowl | Northwestern vs. Tennessee | Tampa Bay | ESPN2 |
Jan. 1 | 1 p.m. | Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Michigan vs. Florida | Orlando | ABC |
Jan. 1 | 1 p.m. | Fiesta Bowl | Notre Dame vs. Ohio State | Glendale | ESPN |
Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. | Rose Bowl | Stanford vs. Iowa | Pasadena | ESPN |
Jan. 1 | 8:30 p.m. | Allstate Sugar Bowl | Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss | New Orleans | ESPN |
Jan. 2 | Noon | TaxSlayer Bowl | Penn State vs. Georgia | Jacksonville | ESPN |
Jan. 2 | 3:20 p.m. | AutoZone Liberty Bowl | Kansas State vs. Arkansas | Memphis | ESPN |
Jan. 2 | 6:45 p.m. | Valero Alamo Bowl | TCU vs. Oregon | San Antonio | ESPN |
Jan. 2 | 10:15 p.m. | Cactus Bowl | West Virginia vs. Arizona State | Phoenix | ESPN |
Jan. 11 | 8:30 p.m. | College Football Playoff National Championship | Glendale | ESPN |
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Cal
Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
For fans of offense, the Armed Forces Bowl is a can’t-miss matchup. There should be points aplenty in this one, as both teams have offenses capable of scoring in bunches and defenses that don’t exactly match up well with their opponent.
First, there’s Cal’s Air Raid offense led by Jared Goff at quarterback. The Bears are fourth in the nation in passing yards per game with 368. That’s in large part thanks to the efficiency of Goff, who is capable of working secondaries underneath while also having the arm to take the top off the defense.
Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus broke down Goff’s game heading into this contest:
Goff ranked 11th in the nation in deep accuracy percentage at 50.6 percent and his 1,403 deep yards ranked third. Even with his ability to get the ball down the field, it’s largely a quick-hitting offense at Cal as 60.8 percent of Goff’s dropbacks last less than 2.6 seconds, the 23rd-highest percentage in the nation. That quick decision making has helped Goff grade well against both the blitz (+12.5) and when pressured (+6.5), and his well-rounded game may be taking the stage for the last time in his college career.
The Air Force defense won’t be the weakest that Goff has seen this season, but it won’t be the best. The Falcons are a middling No. 67 in the country in passing yards per attempt at 7.1 this season, while it ranks 43rd in opponent passer rating.
The good news for the Falcons is that they are also equipped to do some damage on offense themselves. Their rushing attack is ranked No. 2 in the country with 322 yards per game on the ground against a defense that ranks 103rd in rushing yards allowed per game at 203.5.
This game won’t be much fun for either defense. The Falcons should be able to gash this Bears defense throughout the game, while Goff and the Bears should be able to match them point for point with their passing attack.
Expect Goff to come through toward the end to give the Bears a win in a shootout.
Prediction: Cal 49, Air Force 45
Russell Athletic Bowl: Baylor vs. North Carolina
Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
This game feels like it’s flying under the radar for a good reason: Baylor is pretty banged up.
OK, that’s an understatement. Baylor’s offense has been obliterated by the injury bug.
Quarterbacks Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham are both out for the postseason game. Star wide receiver Corey Coleman and running back Shock Linwood have also been declared out, per Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports.
Still, the line doesn’t seem to be affected too much by all of the loss for the Bears. The Tar Heels are only three-point favorites, per Odds Shark.
Which offense are you more confident will succeed in the Russell Athletic Bowl?
Much of that can probably be chalked up to the fact that Chris Johnson—Baylor’s third quarterback—hasn’t really had the chance to prove himself.
The former wide receiver has appeared in three games. The first was a 45-35 win over Oklahoma State in which he scored three total touchdowns in relief of an injured Stidham. The second was a 28-21 loss to TCU in which the torrential downpour held TCU’s potent passing attack to just 148 yards. The third was a loss to Texas which saw Johnson leave the game due to injury after a 3-of-4 start to the day passing.
Now, Johnson has had a few weeks to get healthy and will lead a dangerous offense. Under Briles, the Bears have scored no fewer than 41 points in their last four bowl games.
Unfortunately for the Bears, Briles‘ record in bowl games is just 2-6 in his career and 2-3 in Waco. So even though they put up a lot of points, it hasn’t necessarily led to a whole lot of success.
They could suffer a similar fate this season. North Carolina brings one of the most explosive offenses in college football. They are No. 1 in the nation in yards per play on offense, and while Baylor is No. 2, the Tar Heels aren’t contending with any injuries.
A healthier North Carolina team should hold a slight edge as this contest gets out of hand for Baylor late.
Prediction: North Carolina 48, Baylor 38
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas State
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
The previous two games that have been highlighted are done so because of the potential for a shootout. This game is an underrated one to watch because it features a team that was quietly one of the best in the country over the back half of the season.
The 2015 edition of the Arkansas Razorbacks played about as uneven a season as anyone in college football. Bret Bielema‘s team went 2-4 in its first six games, including losses to Toledo and Texas Tech to start the season.
Then, after losing to Alabama, Arkansas had a week off before ripping off a 5-1 run to end the season, including wins over bowl teams in Ole Miss and LSU. Perhaps the most interesting stat from that run is just how prolific the Hogs have been on offense.
Dan Enos was brought on this year presumably to make the Hogs a bit more explosive, and he certainly accomplished that. They’ve scored at least 50 points in four of their six games and have scored no fewer than 28 points in any game during that time.
The improvement of Brandon Allen as a passer has been a huge reason for the new-look Arkansas offense and should be a factor in the bowl game.
G | Att | Comp | Pct. | Yards | Yards/Att | TD | Int | Rating | Att/G | Yards/G | |
2015 | 12 | 344 | 224 | 65.1 | 3125 | 9.1 | 29 | 7 | 165.18 | 28.7 | 260.4 |
2014 | 13 | 339 | 190 | 56.0 | 2285 | 6.7 | 20 | 5 | 129.19 | 26.1 | 175.8 |
2013 | 11 | 258 | 128 | 49.6 | 1552 | 6.0 | 13 | 10 | 109.02 | 23.5 | 141.1 |
CFBStats.com
Allen’s improvement over the course of his three-year reign as the starter is one of the more underrated stories in college football. Bret Bielema detailed his quarterback’s toughness and development over his career in Fayeteville, per Stephen B. Thornton of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette:
“There are so many kids that would’ve broken or fired back or gave you a little ‘uh huh’ somewhere along the way,” said Arkansas Coach Bret Bielema, praising Allen’s temperament after Arkansas’ 28-3 victory over Missouri in the regular-season finale. “I love it. I get people that have been telling me for three years I should bench him, and then they’re mad when I don’t throw him enough now. It’s just awesome. For him to never flinch on that is cool.”
Now that career culminates with a Liberty Bowl appearance against the Wildcats of Kansas State. It’s probably a matchup that doesn’t quite suit the improvement they’ve made this season, but it’s a matchup they can’t overlook.
According to Odds Shark, this is one of the most lopsided point spreads of the bowl season. The Hogs are a 12.5-point favorite.
Blowing out the Wildcats isn’t easy, though. Bill Snyder’s team went 0-4 against the Big 12’s four best teams this season, but Oklahoma (55-0) was the only team to truly separate from the Cats. TCU bested them by 10, while Baylor won by a touchdown and Oklahoma State won by just two points.
The way the Razorbacks are playing on offense, it will be hard for Kansas State to keep up with another strong opponent.
Prediction: Arkansas 42, Kansas State 28
All statistics used courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
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