NFL against the spread picks: Last week was a weird one – Yahoo Sports (blog)
Bettors in Las Vegas had quite a week right before the holidays.
The New York Giants‘ cover against the Carolina Panthers, coming back from a 35-7 deficit to lose by just 3 points (the Giants were 4- or 5-point underdogs through the week), helped the sports books in Las Vegas. And that was it.
“It’s a miracle we won the Carolina game,” William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “It’s the only game we won all day. We won one.”
One win for the books? That’s why the Review-Journal’s story estimated that the Vegas casinos lost about $4 million last Sunday.
When favorites win, the public wins. And favorites won every game in the late afternoon games, and the Arizona Cardinals killed the books too by covering easily as a favorite. Many of those covers came late in those games. Or, in the case of the Pittsburgh Steelers, with a great comeback to cover a spread that was about 6 points most of the week.
It gets even crazier. Last week, Tayla Polia played a $5, 15-team NFL parlay. She won, hitting the 20,000-to-1 shot for $100,000. And according to ESPN.com, it was only the second bet she had placed in her life and she didn’t understand how point spreads worked. She picked the right side in 14 games and the over in the Broncos-Steelers game.
Yeah, last week was a tough one for the house. Here are the Week 16 against-the-spread picks:
Raiders (-6) over Chargers (picked Thursday): Still weird that we’ll enter 2016 without knowing for sure where these two teams will play in 2016.
Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) celebrates his touchdown with teammate DeSean Jackson during the …
Panthers (-7) over Falcons: It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Falcons give their best effort, since this ends up being their playoff game. But the Panthers have been so much better, and they know how close they are to history.
Bills (-6) over Cowboys: Not ready to pick Kellen Moore on the road.
Lions (-9) over 49ers: Starting with Oct. 22, the 49ers are 2-6, and five of the six losses came by double digits.
Texans (off) over Titans: Quarterback uncertainty in Houston. But no uncertainty in Tennessee, where Marcus Mariota has been ruled out.
Browns (+12.5) over Chiefs: The Browns haven’t been very good, but I still dislike double-digit NFL favorites.
Dolphins (off) over Colts: Another line off the board. I think the Colts are finished after losing at home to the Texans with the AFC South on the line. That was a disheartening loss.
Jets (+3) over Patriots: The Patriots are (again) dealing with injuries. And the motivation is all with the Jets, because they can’t afford a loss in the wild-card race.
Buccaneers (-3) over Bears: Watching the Bears roll over against the Vikings, who were dealing with a ton of injuries on defense and saw Adrian Peterson limited after an early ankle injury, is a sign to not pick them again this season.
Steelers (-10) over Ravens: The exception to picking a double-digit NFL favorite is when you have an offense that can score at will.
Jaguars (+3.5) over Saints: Drew Brees isn’t healthy, and the Saints’ defense is absolutely terrible.
Cardinals (-4.5) over Packers: Sounds strange but I don’t know that the Packers’ offense can keep up.
Seahawks (-13.5) over Rams: Another exception I guess. Because I have no idea how the Rams are going to score in this game.
Giants (+6) over Vikings: Forget the Odell Beckham suspension, although that won’t help. The Vikings might not have anything to play for by the time “Sunday Night Football” kicks off. If that’s the case, the Giants will be playing against a team looking forward to Week 17, one that might rest some starters.
Broncos (-3.5) over Bengals: If AJ McCarron can put up a lot of points on the road against this Broncos defense, we might need to start looking at the Bengals in a different way.
Last week: 6-9-1
Season to date: 106-112-5
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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