Matchups: Silva's Week 16 Matchups
Saturday Night Football
Washington @ Philadelphia
Redskins-Eagles has a 48-point total with Philly favored by three. The Eagles’ team total is 25.5 points. I am continually surprised by Philadelphia’s lofty team totals; offensively, the Eagles have scored 23 points or fewer in six straight weeks. … Sam Bradford has recorded fantasy finishes of QB23, QB23, and QB16 since returning from shoulder and brain injuries. The Eagles’ offense has become tough to watch, while Bradford’s decision making and accuracy come and go on a play-to-play basis. Still, this week’s matchup is favorable against a Redskins pass defense that ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA with a 19:6 TD-to-INT ratio allowed over its last nine games. Quietly, Bradford turned in top-two quarterback stats when these teams met in Week 4. Albeit not a trustworthy option, Bradford is worth a look as a desperation streamer. The Redskins have allowed 30.5 points per game on the road this season, compared to 18.6 at home. … DeMarco Murray has been phased out of the Eagles’ backfield, playing eight snaps in last Sunday night’s loss to Arizona. Ryan Mathews made his second straight start, logging 14 touches on 39% of the downs. Darren Sproles handled nine touches and a 48% playing-time clip. The Redskins rank 23rd in run-defense DVOA after coughing up a combined 19-156-1 (8.21 YPC) rushing line to Bills running backs last week. Mathews is a flex option with some upside this week. Sproles has dominated red-zone work lately but is best viewed as a low-end flex.
Bradford’s targets over the last three weeks: Zach Ertz 24; Jordan Matthews 22; Sproles 13; Riley Cooper 11; Nelson Agholor 10; Josh Huff 7; Brent Celek 5; Ryan Mathews 4. … The overall TE10 in per-game PPR scoring since Philadelphia’s Week 8 bye, Ertz has played himself into legit fantasy-starter discussion against a Redskins defense that gave up 7-76 to Giants tight ends in Week 12, 6-57 to Cowboys tight ends with Matt Cassel quarterbacking in Week 13, 5-85-1 to Bears TE Zach Miller in 14, and gains of 16 and 37 yards to the Bills’ Charles Clay-less tight ends last week. Ertz appears to have emerged as Bradford’s favorite and most reliable target. … Matthews has the ability to legitimately dominate games when fed voluminously, as shown in Week 1 at Atlanta (10-102), Week 9 against Dallas (9-133-1), and Week 15 versus Arizona (8-159-1). Matthews has also shown the ability to disappear, which has been the case for most of the rest of his season. He is a classic boom-bust WR3 option with uneven target totals of 6, 5, and 11 since Bradford returned. … Agholor’s receiving lines since Bradford came back are 0-0, 3-62-1, and 0-0. Agholor has been fantasy waiver wire fodder throughout his rookie year.
The Redskins’ team total is 22.5 points. … Even more so than Washington’s defense, Kirk Cousins‘ home-away splits are dramatic. Whereas Cousins has accounted for 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions in eight home affairs, he’s managed seven TDs and nine picks through six games on the road. Also working against Cousins is Philadelphia’s stout second-level coverage, where FS/slot CB Malcolm Jenkins and the Eagles’ athletic inside linebackers may limit top weapon Jordan Reed. The matchup is nearly perfect for DeSean Jackson on the perimeter, however. I’m betting on Cousins to finish in the 12-15 range among fantasy quarterbacks this week, making him a serviceable streamer. … Matt Jones‘ emergence as Washington’s feature back was proven a mirage in Week 15, as Alfred Morris reappeared to out-touch (14), out-snap (53%), and severely out-rush (14-84) Jones (11, 45%, 10-28) in the Redskins’ win over Buffalo. Washington’s backfield has a terrific matchup with a weak Eagles run defense that was dismantled by Cardinals running backs (37-232-3) last Sunday night. Unfortunately, the inconsistent timeshare renders both Jones and Morris unattractive Week 16 flex plays.
Cousins’ targets over the last month: Reed 33; Pierre Garcon 24; Jackson 23; Jamison Crowder 12; Jones 8; Chris Thompson 5. … Under DC Billy Davis, the Eagles give tight ends hell. They allowed the third fewest fantasy points to the position in 2014 and permit the second fewest this year. Reed managed 5-37-0 when Washington hosted Philadelphia in Week 4. Reed did miss big chunks of that game due to ankle and knee injuries and eventually a late-game concussion, however, while Scott Chandler went 4-61-1 against the Eagles in Week 13, and Cameron Brate posted 3-47-1 in Tampa Bay’s Week 11 thrashing of Philadelphia. Ultimately, Reed against the Eagles is the tight end equivalent of Odell Beckham versus Josh Norman. … The best area to attack the Eagles is on the perimeter, to which John Brown, Michael Floyd, and J.J. Nelson could attest had they not left around 200 receiving yards on the field via drops in last Sunday night’s win over Philadelphia. This is also a #RevengeGame for Jackson in his old stomping grounds. D-Jax went 5-117-1 and 4-126-0 in last year’s two Eagles games. He missed this year’s with a hamstring injury. … Garcon hit pay dirt for the first time since mid-October in last Sunday’s win over the Bills. He’s reached 60 yards once in his last 11 games.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 23
1:00PM ET Games
San Francisco @ Detroit
The game total on 49ers-Lions is 43 points with host Detroit favored by 9.5. No longer moving the ball with Blaine Gabbert at the controls, San Francisco’s team total is under 17 points. … The 49ers have mustered offensive point totals of 14, 10, 20, 17, 13, and 13 in Gabbert’s six starts. As San Francisco poses zero run-game threat, the Lions’ defense will be able to pin its ears back against fragile-hearted Gabbert, who’s absorbed 17 sacks over the last three weeks. The Lions’ fantasy D/ST should be teed up with excitement. … The Lions have held opposing running backs to 408 yards and three TDs on 115 carries (3.55 YPC) since their Week 9 bye. Shaun Draughn is nursing a knee injury, while Kendall Gaskins is left as San Francisco’s likely primary back should Draughn miss. The Niners also have DuJuan Harris on their active roster, and gave FB Bruce Miller a successful goal-line carry last week. Don’t play 49ers running backs this week.
Gabbert’s targets this year: Anquan Boldin 44; Draughn 32; Quinton Patton 28; Vance McDonald 23; Torrey Smith 20; Blake Bell 17; Travaris Cadet 10; Jerome Simpson 9; Gaskins and Bruce Ellington 7. … Boldin’s box-score results have been up and down since Gabbert took over, but he has drawn double-digit targets in three of the last four weeks and will primarily square off Sunday with Lions sixth-round rookie slot CB Quandre Diggs. I’ve tried targeting Diggs before and it hasn’t paid off, however; super quietly, Diggs is PFF’s No. 1-graded cornerback over the last six weeks. Still, Boldin is the lone San Francisco wideout worth a serious Week 16 look. … McDonald returned from his concussion in last week’s loss to Cincinnati, but he dropped two passes and was out-targeted (4) and out-snapped (52%) by rookie Bell (8, 72%). Down the stretch of a lost season, it makes sense for the 49ers to give ex-college quarterback Bell as much run as possible. Fantasy owners incredibly desperate for a streamer may want to give Bell a look against a Lions defense yielding the league’s fourth most fantasy points to tight ends.
As 9.5-point favorites versus San Francisco, the Lions’ team total is over 26 points. … Although his on-field play has been more uneven, Matthew Stafford has been a lights-out fantasy passer for more than two months. His TD-to-INT ratio is 14:2 since Detroit’s Week 9 bye, while Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but two of his last nine games. Whereas the 49ers have given up just six passing scores through seven home games this year, DC Eric Mangini‘s unit has permitted 13 passing TDs in seven games on the road. San Francisco ranks 28th in the NFL in sacks (26) and 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. Only three teams have allowed more 20-plus-yard completions than the Niners. Stafford is a high-floor QB1 play with plenty of upside. … The Lions showed faith in lead back Ameer Abdullah during Monday night’s win over the Saints, sticking with him despite his fifth fumble of the season. Abdullah rewarded them with 89 total yards — his second best mark of the year — and a season-high 8.6 yards-per-carry average on the strength of several chunk-yardage runs. Abdullah still played under 42% of the snaps, however, and finished with 11 touches to Joique Bell‘s 10 and Theo Riddick‘s 4. Even in a plus matchup with San Francisco’s weak run defense, Abdullah remains nothing more than a dart-throw flex. Bell was also effective on his Week 15 touches and executed a late-game goal-line carry. Riddick is always a drain on his teammates’ PPR value.
Stafford’s targets since the Lions’ Week 9 bye: Golden Tate 49; Calvin Johnson 46; Riddick 33; Eric Ebron 25; Bell 14; T.J. Jones 13; Abdullah and Lance Moore 10. … Tate is on a torrid second-half pace, piling up at least six catches in five straight games with five touchdowns during that span. He’s the overall WR6 in PPR leagues since Week 10. Although 49ers slot CB Jimmie Ward has played better lately, Tate is matchup proof whenever Megatron is seeing decoy usage. … A decoy Calvin has been in Detroit’s last two games, managing two receptions on six combined targets. No longer capable of practicing due to an ankle injury, Megatron’s target totals have dipped in three straight weeks (14, 8, 5, 1). He has one 100-plus-yard game this season, and got there with a 57-yard catch in overtime against the Bears. My bet is Johnson rebounds with a solid-not-spectacular performance against the hapless 49ers, but it’s fair to have big concerns about his effectiveness beyond this year. … Ebron’s stats when Brandon Pettigrew (ACL) has missed games this year: 5-43-1, 4-61, 2-22, 5-89-1, 4-79. Ebron left the 22-yard game midway through the second quarter due to a knee injury. He barely missed a touchdown last Monday night, getting tackled at the one-yard line in New Orleans. The 49ers gave up 5-84-1 to Gary Barnidge in Week 14, and 3-31-1 to Tyler Kroft last Sunday. Ebron is a solid TE1 streamer.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, 49ers 13
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Steelers-Ravens has a 47.5-point total with visiting Pittsburgh favored by ten. The Steelers’ team total is nearly 29 points in Baltimore. … Ben Roethlisberger has knocked easy matchups out of the park this season, finishing as the fantasy QB3 in Week 2 against San Francisco, the QB10 in Week 9 versus Oakland, the QB2 in Week 10 against Cleveland, and the QB5 in Week 13 versus Indianapolis. This is another cupcake versus a Ravens pass defense that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. As frequently discussed in this space, Baltimore plays “funnel defense” by shutting down running games and forcing opponents to attack with the pass. Big Ben is a shoo-in top-three quarterback play this week. … The Ravens have held opposing running backs to 479 yards and two touchdowns on 134 carries (3.57 YPC) since their Week 9 bye. While an efficient rushing day seems unlikely for DeAngelo Williams, Williams’ high-volume and goal-line usage keeps his floor high every week. For instance, Williams averaged fewer than two yards per carry on 15 attempts in last Sunday’s win over Denver, but still emerged as the week’s RB11 overall in PPR scoring on the strength of five receptions and a two-yard TD run.
Roethlisberger’s targets over his last seven games: Antonio Brown 95; Martavis Bryant 67; Markus Wheaton 44; Heath Miller 43; Williams 29; Jesse James 9; Darrius Heyward-Bey 6. … Notable receiving lines allowed by the Ravens since their Week 9 bye: 6-104-2 (Tyler Lockett), 6-82-3 (Doug Baldwin), 6-90-1 (Travis Benjamin), 7-50-1 (Jeremy Maclin), 8-74 (Brian Hartline), 7-74 (Jermaine Kearse), 5-62-1 (Allen Hurns), 5-51-1 (Allen Robinson), 3-63-1 (DeVante Parker). This is an ideal matchup for Brown, who is averaging an absurd 10-135-1 receiving line when Big Ben plays most of the game this season. … While Brown mostly contends with banged-up RCB Jimmy Smith (thigh), Martavis will primarily run routes at Ravens LCB Shareece Wright, who was allowed to walk in 2015 free agency by the cornerback-deficient Chargers, then cut in October by the cornerback-needy 49ers. Bryant has drawn at least eight targets in five straight games and is a legitimate WR1 play at Baltimore. … Wheaton has come on strong recently, clearing 50 yards in four straight games and hitting pay dirt in three of them. Playing slot receiver in the Steelers’ offense, Wheaton is on the WR3 fringe against up-and-down Ravens slot CB Lardarius Webb. … Miller’s outlook is a bit more bleak, taking on a Baltimore defense permitting the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Miller’s last three stat lines against the Ravens are 1-1-0, 1-14-0, and 4-35-0. He did drop 6-76-0 on Baltimore in last January’s playoffs.
As ten-point home underdogs versus Pittsburgh, the Ravens’ team total is below 19 points. … Baltimore has made a habit of not announcing its starting quarterback during the week. Matt Schaub looked like the Ravens’ likely starter last Friday, before Jimmy Clausen got the nod in Sunday’s warmups. Baltimore has also spoken publicly of getting Ryan Mallett late-season work. The Ravens’ starting quarterback matters little for a team with so few fantasy options. … Buck Allen lost a fumble for the second straight week in last Sunday’s loss to Kansas City, and didn’t play thereafter. Coach John Harbaugh insisted Monday that Allen will resume playing against the Steelers, but Allen’s workload is unclear with Terrance West also in the mix. On Sunday, Allen and West will do battle with a Pittsburgh run defense that ranks No. 7 in DVOA with just three rushing TDs allowed to running backs in 14 games. … Kamar Aiken has emerged as a legitimate fantasy starter down the stretch with consecutive target totals of 14, 8, 10, 11, 7, and 12 across his last six games. He’s the overall WR11 in PPR leagues during that timeframe. As Pittsburgh seems likely to pour points on Baltimore’s defense, game flow should work in Aiken’s favor this week. Stat lines produced by lead receivers against the Steelers over their last seven games: 5-61-2 (Demaryius Thomas), 6-132-1 (A.J. Green), 3-36 (T.Y. Hilton), 6-145-3 (Doug Baldwin), 7-113 (Travis Benjamin), 7-88-1 (Amari Cooper), 11-118-1 (Green again). I’d feel pretty comfortable with Aiken’s floor this week, and he has demonstrated plenty of upside as well.
Score Prediction: Steelers 28, Ravens 17
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
