Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 16 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for setting DFS lineups, as these are the players I’ll likely have heavy exposure to on Sunday. Thanks for reading along all season, and good luck to those of you in your respective fantasy championships. Also, Merry Christmas to all of you!
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Carson Palmer vs. Packers: We wanted to attack this overrated pass defense of the Packers last week with Derek Carr, and it paid off. Carr threw two early interceptions, including a pick-six, but settled down and finished the day with a pair of touchdowns and 21.2 fantasy points. Fantasy owners flocked to Palmer last week for his tasty on-paper matchup with the Eagles, but the MVP candidate answered with his lowest fantasy points total of the season. Palmer still moved the offense, but David Johnson just happened to be the one finishing off the drives with three rushing touchdowns. This looks like a week for Palmer to get back on track as he tries to win over MVP voters. As pointed out last week, the Packers haven’t faced many top-tier quarterbacks, and all three they’ve seen — Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr — have had big days. Palmer is next in line and gets to play at home. Packers No. 1 CB Sam Shields (concussion) sat out last week and missed practice Wednesday. He’s looking iffy at best for Sunday. On FanDuel, Palmer is a strong contrarian option at $8,700 between Ben Roethlisberger ($8,900) and Blake Bortles ($8,200). The Cardinals will also be up in pace with Green Bay playing at the ninth-fastest pace in the NFL.
Starts
Matthew Stafford vs. 49ers: Stafford has been on fire in recent weeks scoring at least 17 fantasy points in five-straight games, and he’s been even better at home. He has a 99.7 passer rating at Ford Field with a 15:6 TD:INT ratio while averaging over 281 passing yards per game. Stafford is averaging 20.8 fantasy points per home game, and that includes two early-season 11.1 and 8.7 outings against the Broncos and Cardinals’ elite pass defenses. The 49ers are 12th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks on the year and sixth since Week 11, but they’re 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. San Francisco has been much worse on the road, however. This is the Lions’ final home game of the season, and Stafford and the offense will be way up in pace. The 49ers are the fifth-fastest offense in the league. As 10-point home favorites, the Lions have one of the highest implied team totals (26.5) of the week. Look for Stafford to try and get Calvin Johnson on track.
Blake Bortles at Saints: This is the most obvious play of fantasy championship week. If you own Bortles, he’s pretty much a must-start. He’s put up at least 23.5 fantasy points in four-straight games. The Saints’ defensive deficiencies have been well documented all year. They’ve allowed 39 touchdown passes, eight more than any other team, and their six interceptions are second-fewest. New Orleans is bleeding touchdowns and not taking the ball away. Matthew Stafford and the Lions marched down the field repeatedly against the Saints last Monday night. This Jaguars offense remains one of the more underrated units in the sport. The matchup couldn’t get any dreamier. Bortles has accounted for multiple touchdowns in 11-of-14 games. Ideally, it’d be best for Drew Brees (foot) to play in this one so that the Saints and Jaguars can go toe-to-toe in a shootout. If Brees is active and starting, this game will easily have the highest Vegas total of the week. In some spots earlier this week, the over-under was set at a whopping 52 points with a 3.5-point spread.
Kirk Cousins at Eagles: Cousins is white-hot at the moment with four-straight games having a passer rating over 101. In that span, he’s averaged 285 passing yards (three 300-yard games) with seven touchdown passes and another three as a runner. The big thing with Cousins is he’s limited his turnovers. He’s tossed just one interception the past four weeks. The concern this week with Cousins, though, is he’s been far better at home. This one’s on the road for the NFC East marbles. Both teams are going to lean on their best players. Cousins, right now, is one of those for Washington. And he’s going to be way up in pace, as the Eagles run the fastest offense in the league, which will, of course, allow the Redskins’ offense to run more plays on their side of the ball. Week 4 against this same Eagles team, Cousins attempted 46 passes, the second-most he’s fired off all year. On that day, Cousins threw for 290 yards, one touchdown, and rushed for another. Through 14 games, the Eagles have surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns and third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Since Week 10, no team has allowed more touchdown passes than the Eagles. They also may be without default No. 1 CB Byron Maxwell (shoulder), as he didn’t practice Wednesday. Maxwell has been terrible this season, but he’s the best corner on the roster.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Patriots: FitzMagic has been super consistent all season, particularly of late. He’s scored at least 16.3 fantasy points in seven-straight games. Not a recommended start last week against Dallas in a slow-paced game, Fitzpatrick will be way up in pace this week. The Patriots run the sixth-fastest offense. In the previous matchup between these divisional foes back in Week 7, Fitzpatrick attempted 39 passes, his third-highest total of the year. The Jets will be at home this time around, and Fitzpatrick put up a respectable 20.7 fantasy points on the road at New England eight weeks back. The Patriots have been stingy against quarterbacks much of the year, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but the Jets have relied on the pass much of the season. Fitzpatrick has been nails at home. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all eight games at MetLife.
Sits
Tyrod Taylor vs. Cowboys: If you’ve read this column all season, you’ve noticed a trend. We typically like to avoid quarterbacks and pretty much all skill players against the Cowboys. It’s not that Dallas fields a great defense or anything; they simply play at such a slow pace on offense that it limits possessions and plays for opposing offenses. Cam Newton is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game on the year, but managed just 17.8 back on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. Taylor is a poor man’s Newton with a similar skill set. On the year, the Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns (15) and third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Dallas-Buffalo has one of the lowest Vegas totals of Week 16 at 42.5 points. Expect this to be a run-dominated affair.
Eli Manning at Vikings: With Odell Beckham in the lineup, Manning would be a borderline usable streamer at quarterback. But with Beckham’s one-game suspension upheld on Wednesday, he’s not going to play, and Manning is left with a supporting cast of Rueben Randle, Dwayne Harris, Hakeem Nicks, and Will Tye against a Vikings defense that is 10th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Giants are five-point road underdogs with an implied team total of just 20.25. New York will also be way down in pace in a cold environment with Minnesota likely to get back all three of NT Linval Joseph, SLB Anthony Barr, and FS Harrison Smith back from multi-week injuries, though it’s possible the Vikings hold out banged-up players in the Packers lose to the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, therefore making Minnesota’s Week 16 meaningless. Regardless, Manning isn’t someone I’d be looking to bet on having a good game. The Vikings are 27th in pace and will probably try to just run the clock with handoffs to Adrian Peterson, Jerick McKinnon, and/or Matt Asiata.
Philip Rivers at Raiders: Typically, the Thursday night game is ignored in this column, but this week’s edition is out early enough on Thursday that most of you will have read it by the time the Chargers and Raiders kick off. Rivers and the Bolts are coming off an emotional home win over the Dolphins that very well may have been the team’s last game in San Diego. Rivers went out with a bang, throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns, leaving everything out on the field. Now he’s faced with a quick turnaround on a short week on the road in what could end up being the Raiders’ final game in Oakland. Both teams are in the mix to move to Los Angeles as soon as 2016. The Raiders have been middle of the pack against the pass all year, but over the past three games, Oakland is allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. They just held Aaron Rodgers to 204 yards, one score, and one interception on 39 attempts last week. This is a big letdown spot for the Chargers, while the Raiders will be all sorts of jacked up for FS Charles Woodson’s final home game. Woodson announced earlier in the week that he’s retiring after the season. In four starts against the AFC West this season, Rivers has a 69.8 passer rating with a 3:5 TD:INT ratio.
Teddy Bridgewater vs. Giants: Bridgewater is coming off easily the best game of his career to-date. He totaled five touchdowns and 32.9 fantasy points against the Bears. On paper, the matchup against the Giants is even better. Only the Saints have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Giants. But the Vikings remain a slow-churning, run-heavy offense. Bridgewater isn’t going to have many three-touchdown games, let alone five-score outings. The main reason for sitting Bridgewater, however, as mentioned above, is the Vikings could choose to sit their starters on Sunday night if the Packers lose to the Cardinals that afternoon. Coach Mike Zimmer hinted on Wednesday that could be an option. In fantasy championship week, it’s simply far too risky to rely on Bridgewater as a streaming option unless late-swap is a possibility.
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