NFL picks vs. the spread, Week 16: Saints fall; Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks … – NOLA.com
This looks like another NFL season where a wild-card team makes or even wins the Super Bowl.
Other than the Carolina Panthers, the three hottest teams in the NFL these days are Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Seattle. And the latter three all appear headed for wild-card berths.
The Chiefs have won eight consecutive games after a 1-5 start and are second in the NFL in giveaway-takeaway margin at plus-15.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have riddled off wins in five of their past six games, including back-to-back victories against the Bengals and Broncos. They have scored 30 or more points in each of their past six games and are looking a lot like the 2011 Saints offensively.
The Steelers’ lone loss in that span is to the Seahawks, who have won five straight and seven of eight overall. Their average margin of victory in those six wins: 17 points.
Rest assured, no one wants to play the Chiefs, Steelers or Seahawks in the wild-card playoff round. With such hot wild-card seeds looming, it’s never been more important to land a first-round bye in the playoffs. The competition for top seeds in both conferences has never been more fierce.
Jaguars at Saints (-3.5): The Jaguars have never won at the Superdome, albeit in only two appearances. But they might have their best shot at a win this Sunday. The Saints have lost nine of their past 12 games at home, including three straight this season. Moreover, in their past four home games they have allowed an average of 39.8 points and 448 yards. And finally, they might have to play a home game for the first time without Drew Brees. Jaguars 28, Saints 26
Chargers at Raiders (-5.5): The Battle for Los Angeles. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of crowd the Raiders draw for this Christmas Eve clash with their division rivals. My guess is not many. Raiders 40, Chargers 25
Packers at Cardinals (-4.5): The premier matchup of the weekend between two teams that have already clinched playoff berths but harboring larger aspirations. The Cardinals can lock up a first-round bye with a win, but they’ll have to do it without Tyrann Mathieu, who was lost for the season with a knee injury last week. I like the Pack. Packers 28, Cardinals 26
Redskins at Eagles (-3.5): First place in the NFC East is on the line in this Saturday night battle at the Linc. The Redskins can clinch the NFC East Division title with a win. The Eagles, meanwhile, can win the division with wins in their final two games. Eagles 31, Redskins 27
Colts (E) at Dolphins: The bloom is off the Dan Campbell rose in Miami, where the Dolphins have lost of their past eight games under the interim head coach. The Colts, meanwhile, are expected to make a coaching change of their own in the offseason. Could this be the Sean Payton Bowl? Dolphins 26, Colts 23
Bears at Bucs (-3): One of the reasons the Bucs will miss the playoffs for an eighth straight season is their NFL-leading 134 penalties. Rookie QB Jameis Winston has been a bright spot in the Bucs’ season. He’s one of four rookie quarterbacks in NFL history with 3,000 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns. Bucs 28, Bears 22
49ers at Lions (-7.5): The Lions have to be playing the “What If?” game after heartbreaking losses to two of the best teams in the NFL, Seattle and Green Bay, sunk their season. The 49ers, meanwhile, appear to be playing out the string. Lions 30, 49ers 14
Browns at Chiefs (-12.5): The streaking Chiefs are the team no one is talking about in the AFC. They also are the team no is going to want to face in the playoffs. They are the first team in NFL history to lose five consecutive games, then win eight consecutive games. Their defense has not allowed more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 4. Chiefs 29, Browns 17
Texans (E) at Titans: Battle of the backup QBs. This could be Brandon Weeden vs. Zach Mettenberger. The Texans have to have this one to stay ahead of Indy in the AFC South. Texans 20, Titans 16
Patriots (-3.5) at Jets: Playoff implications galore here. The Patriots need a win to keep their stranglehold on the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The Jets need a win to keep pace with Kansas City and Pittsburgh in the wild-card race. Jets 27, Patriots 26
Steelers (-10.5) at Ravens: How good are the Steelers? They just hung 34 points and 354 passing yards on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. What are they going to do to the reeling, injury-riddled Ravens and Jimmy Clausen? Steelers 35, Ravens 20
Panthers (-7) at Falcons: The Falcons, who amazingly are still in playoff contention, could be the only thing standing in the way of the Panthers and an unbeaten season. The Panthers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win. They are just the fourth team in NFL history to start a season 14-0. All four predecessors went to the Super Bowl. Panthers 31, Falcons 27
Cowboys at Bills (-6): Two more teams playing out the string. Bills coach Rex Ryan is threatening wholesale changes in the offseason. Look for disgruntled defensive end Mario Williams to be among them. Tyrod Taylor is the difference here. That’s a sentence I never thought I’d type. Bills 24, Cowboys 17
Rams at Seahawks (-13.5): The Seahawks have won five straight and seven of their past eight. The Rams are going nowhere – other than, Los Angeles, that is. Seahawks 27, Rams 16
Giants at Vikings (-4.5): The Vikings have plenty of incentive in this game. They can win the NFC North by sweeping their final two games. The Giants have to win to maintain their faint hopes in the NFC East and probably will have to do it without star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Vikings 33, Giants 31
Bengals at Broncos (-3.5): A.J. McCarron played well in his starting debut last week. But the Broncos’ top-ranked defense won’t be as kind to the former Alabama star. Denver has been outscored 36-0 in the second halves of its past three games but it will finish strong in this one, regardless of who’s at QB. Broncos 27, Bengals 16
Week 15 overall record: 10-5
Week 15 record vs. spread: 8-7
Overall record: 116-93
Overall record vs. spread: 90-109-10
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