The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 16

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! It’s hard to beleive that we’re already here, but Week 16 is upon us and for many, that means Championship week across our leagues. If you failed to make you chapionship game, the season doesn’t have to end for you as you can dabble into the Daily Fantasy waters if you’ve yet to try it out. Here’s the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 16 games in a PPR fashion….

San Diego vs. Oakland

• Road quarterbacks have averaged 15.3 points per game with only two top-12 scoring weeks (with a high of QB9) on Thursday games after Week 1 while home quarterbacks have averaged 16.7 points per game with just six top-12 scoring weeks.
• In seven games against teams in top half of passing points allowed per attempt, Philip Rivers has averaged 14.1 points and an average scoring week of QB19.
• In seven games against bottom half teams in the same statistic, he’s averaged 22.2 points per game with an average week of QB8.
• After allowing opposing quarterbacks to pass for 325.1 yards per game through eight games, the Raiders have allowed just 219 passing yards per game over their past six.
• Over that span they’ve allowed just two top-12 scoring quarterbacks after allowing seven over their opening eight games.
• Danny Woodhead‘s 16 red zone targets lead all running backs.
• Oakland allows 11.9 red zone plays per game, the most in the league.
• The Raiders allow 6.0 receptions per game to running backs, the seventh most in the league.
• Amari Cooper‘s 68 receptions are just three short of Keenan Allen‘s 71 receptions for the most ever by a 21-year old receiver and only Randy Moss (82.1 yards) had more yards per game on average than Cooper’s 74.3 yards per game as a 21-year old rookie.
• The Chargers have only allowed six top-24 scoring wide receivers on the season (second fewest), but both Cooper (WR5) and Michael Crabtree (WR14) accomplished that in Week 7.
• Through nine weeks, Latavius Murray had 132 carries (10th) for 630 rushing yards (sixth) for 4.8 yards per carry. Since then, he has 104 carries (fourth) for 326 rushing yards (12th) for 3.1 YPC with just two top-24 scoring weeks.

Trust: Antonio Gates (he’s had the steadiest target share in this passing game, seeing an average of 23 percent of the looks over the past three weeks and Oakland has had improved play on the perimeter)

Bust: Donald Brown (will occupy Melvin Gordon’s role and had late production against a team that had quit a week ago, but this role has proven to have little to offer for fantasy including from Brown a year ago), Amari Cooper (he got over in this matchup with Crabtree earlier in the season, but has largely struggled versus good corners on the season while exploiting softer matchups), Philip Rivers (he’s been matchup dependent for production since Keenan Allen was lost and Oakland has been a much tougher draw for quarterbacks of late while road quarterbacks have struggled on Thursday games)

Reasonable Return: Danny Woodhead (he played the fewest amount of snaps in a game since Week 5 last week, but his role is heavily used in the red zone, including two touchdowns versus Oakland in Week 7), Michael Crabtree (has been a top-30 scorer just once over the past six weeks, but once again has the best individual matchup), Derek Carr (he’s completed just 41.4 and 48.9 percent of his passes the past two weeks, but the team line and being home favorite point towards not discounting him), Latavius Murray (he hasn’t been good over the past month plus, but it’s hard to completely fade his type of volume in a game with Oakland as solid favorites with a high team total)

Washington vs. Philadelphia

• Through six weeks, the Eagles were allowing just 94.2 rushing yards per game, but since have allowed 164.1 rushing yards per game, the most in the league.
• Alfred Morris led the team with 52.6 percent of the team snaps last week. He’s never led the backfield in snaps played in back to back games this season.
• Since DeSean Jackson returned, Kirk Cousins has been the QB25, QB26 and QB19 against teams in the top half of passing points allowed per attempt and the QB1, QB9, QB7 and QB2 against teams in the bottom half (Philadelphia is the 13th worst).
• Only Russell Wilson (eight) has more games completing at least 70 percent of his passes as Cousins’ seven.
• Jackson has eight receptions of 25 yards or more since his return (third most in the league). Washington had nine receptions of 25 or more yards as a team during Jackson’s absence.
• Darren Sproles has led the Eagles backfield in snaps in each of the past three weeks, but has played more than 50 percent of the snaps in just one of those games.
• Zach Ertz seen a season high 31.7 percent of the team targets last week and has led the Eagles in targets in three of his past four complete games played.

Trust: Kirk Cousins (I’m a beleiver that his splits have been more opponent driven than a home or road angle and this week should tell the story), DeSean Jackson (vertical boundary threats have been an issue for the Eagles this season, here’s to hoping Jackson hangs on to his opportunities more than John Brown did a week ago), Jordan Reed (tied for the league lead in top-6 scoring weeks at tight end and dominating red zone targets)

Bust: Ryan Matthews/DeMarco Murray (the line is suggesting we trust this backfield as a whole, but the rotation has favored Sproles and Vegas has consistently missed on the Eagles all season long), Jordan Matthews (had 159 yards last week after 149 total over his previous five games), Sam Bradford (the last time he was in the front half of quarterback scoring was Week 5 and the Washington secondary is healthier than it was in their first meeting when Bradford threw three touchdowns), Matt Jones/Alfred Morris (Washington ran 32 times in this first meeting, but didn’t produce a top-30 scoring back. This situation just can’t be trusted week to week)

Reasonable Return: Zach Ertz (he’s been quietly solid for two months and now is starting to get some positive kickback on touchdown regression), Darren Sproles (I’m mostly avoiding this offense outside of Ertz, but he’s still the only option out of the backfield I feel moderate good about)

Indianapolis vs. Miami

• The Colts have allowed 59 passing plays of 20 yards or more, the most in the league.
• Ryan Tannehill has nine games with fewer than seven passing yards per attempt, the most in the league.
• Jarvis Landry has 182 receptions through his first two seasons, tied with Odell Beckham for the most ever, but is 46th in receiving yardage (1,734 yards) through two seasons.
• DeVante Parker has seen 17.2 percent, 26.3 percent, 12.2 percent and 17.6 percent of the team targets over the past four weeks with scoring weeks of WR20, WR28, WR85 and WR40.
• Jay Ajayi played a season high 54.4 percent of the team snaps last week.
• The Colts have just two touchdowns on their past 38 possessions.
• Indianapolis has rushed for just 60 yards per game over the past five weeks, the lowest in the league (league average is 106.9 yards rushing over that span).
• Over that stretch, Frank Gore is seventh in touches (90), but 20th in total yards (330) and 27th in scoring for all running backs.

Bust: Frank Gore (the touch volume and the Miami defense dictate he could be useful, but you’re retro fitting that angle over the tangible results he’s provided now for several weeks), Ryan Tannehill (like Gore, I want to like this layout for him, but it’s hard to vault over what he’s done so far in similar spots), DeVante Parker (production and usage is still far too volatile to believe in), Donte Moncrief (scored for the first time since Week 7 and was still just the WR29 for the week), Lamar Miller (every time we leave him for dead he comes back with a great game, but I just don’t see how you can use him as it feels like Miami is ready to move on from him based on the past two weeks when he’s been supposedly been healthy enough to play but they haven’t used him. His involvement also clouds making any deep play on Jay Ajayi in the event he is completely phased out)

Reasonable Return: Jarvis Landry (he’s banged up and it showed last week, but is in line for another solid floor week), T.Y. Hilton (I don’t believe this offense is any shape to fully take advantage of this matchup, but he has been an every other week type of producer since mid-season and the Miami secondary has given their share of chunk plays up)

Chicago vs. Tampa Bay

• In games without Vincent Jackson active, Mike Evans has been targeted on 37.2 percent of routes as opposed to 25.6 percent while both have been active.
• In those games, Evans has been the WR47, WR11, WR7 and the WR11.
• Just 9.7 percent of Evans’ fantasy output has come from touchdown production, the lowest of all receivers inside the top-50 of scoring on the season.
• Chicago allows the eighth most passing points per attempt (.494), but has faced just 31.7 attempts per game (29th).
• The Bears have only allowed five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, tied for the fourth fewest in the league.
• Since returning from injury, Matt Forte has averaged 16.8 touches per game, down from the 22.3 touches per game he had averaged prior.
• Despite the new timeshare, Forte has 11 red zone touches to Jeremy Langford‘s two over those four weeks.
• Since allowing 139 rushing yards to Alfred Blue in Week 3, Tampa Bay has allowed just two individual rushers to rush for at least 70 yards with a high of 88 yards.
• In the three games Martellus Bennett has missed, Zach Miller has seen 22.6 percent, 19.4 percent and 16.2 percent of the team targets.

Trust: Mike Evans (this game screams low volume for both sides, which is worrisome, but Evans is soaking in targets and has the upside to turn them into high end production)

Bust: Jay Cutler (this is set up as an eerily similar spot that he was in last week), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (a junk score saved his line last week and he was still just the TE13 in a week where Winston threw for 363 yards), Matt Forte (has saved back to back dull weeks with a score and the rushing yardage here should be hard to come by without a standalone workload)

Reasonable Return: Doug Martin (steady volume in the run game, but still has been limited by lack of touchdown and reception production as he has just two top-12 scoring weeks over his past eight games), Jameis Winston (the Bears have been inefficient, but it’s been masked overall by lack of faced volume, something that may happen again this week. Winston will need to make the most of low volume if the game plays out in a mundane fashion), Alshon Jeffery (when he’s played fully, he’s been a top-10 option, but that has happened in just a handful of games), Zach Miller (the Bears have shallow ball distribution in the passing game, making Miller’s usage a solid bet if you’re making a floor play)

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