NFL Picks Week 16: Chiefs, Steelers roll; Saints lose home finale – NOLA.com

Looking at the Week 15 schedule, it seemed as if it could be the easiest of the season to pick. Judging by our weekly contest – and the fact I had a great week (we know how often that happens) – it certainly was.

Now, looking at Week 16, it could be the opposite. Right off, four of my top six picks straight up are road teams and all are division games. That’s usually a recipe for slip ups and upsets and missed picks.

As we’ve said, this is usually the time the cream rises to the top, so you have to trust the best teams will be at their best. But stick to watching the NFL this week for the sheer enjoyment of watching the penultimate week of the regular season. I expect lots of underdogs to cover this week.

Let the sharks eat somewhere else.

Good luck!

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Here we go with Week 16 (home team in bold):

16 points: KANSAS CITY over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon

What the Chiefs have been able to do after a 1-5 start has been nothing short of remarkable – especially without Jamaal Charles. Still with a realistic shot at winning the AFC West, they won’t allow for any slips, especially against one of the league’s worst teams. Against the spread: Chiefs minus-12.5.

Last week: New England over Tennessee (W). 16-point record: 5-2. ATS, Patriots -14.5 (W)

15 points: PITTSBURGH over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon

While the Ravens haven’t lost at home to Pittsburgh – or anyone else – at home very often under John Harbaugh before this season, they haven’t ever been as banged up and in dire straits as they are now. The season can’t end soon enough for them, while the Steelers are looking like a Super Bowl possibility. Against the spread: Steelers minus-10.5.

Last week: Seattle over Cleveland (W). 15-point record: 5-3. ATS, Seahawks -14.5 (W)

14 points: SEATTLE over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

Speaking of Super Bowl possibilities, it appears as if the demise of the Seahawks was announced prematurely once again. However, the question remains on whether they’ll have to play the rest of their season with Brice Brown as their top back. Doesn’t matter at home with the 12th man vs. Case Keenum. Against the spread: Rams plus-13.5.

Last week: Kansas City over Baltimore (W). 14-point record: 12-2. ATS, Chiefs -7.5 (W)

13 points: NEW ENGLAND over NY JETS, Sunday at noon

Who wants to bet against the Patriots this time of year? I’ll leave that for some other prognosticator extraordinaire much smarter than I. Against the spread: Patriots minus-3.5.

Last week: Green Bay over Oakland (W). 13-point record: 11-4. ATS, Packers -2.5 (W)

12 points: CAROLINA over ATLANTA, Sunday at noon

It looked like last week was the trap game for the Panthers, and they nearly blew a four-touchdown lead. But great teams find a way to win when facing adversity, and Carolina will have to prove me wrong before I pick against them again. P.S. If anyone but Cam Newton wins the MVP award, there should be an investigation. Against the spread: Falcons plus-7.5.

Last week: NY Jets over Dallas (W). 12-point record: 10-5. ATS, Jets -2.5 (W)

11 points: HOUSTON over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon

The only real bright spot for the Titans on offense this season has been first-round pick Marcus Mariota. Now that he is out for this one with a sprained MCL, who might be able to get things going against this defense that’s already in playoff mode? Against the spread: No line as I write this due to Mariota and the uncertainty at quarterback for the Texans. I’ll take Houston as long as it stays under 6.5.

Last week: Cincinnati over San Francisco (W). 11-point record: 10-5. ATS, Bengals -4.5 (L)

10 points: DETROIT over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at noon

Be careful with this one ATS, especially with the fact the Lions are 0-3 straight up against the NFC West this season. Granted, the 49ers aren’t as good as any of the other three teams, and I’m going to take Detroit. However, I’m not willing to let a five-win team give more than a touchdown. Against the spread: 49ers plus-7.5.

Last week: St. Louis over Tampa Bay (W). 10-point record: 12-3. ATS, Rams, even (W)

9 points: BUFFALO over DALLAS, Sunday at noon

Kellen Moore came in relief of Matt Cassel’s disaster and played well last Saturday night against the Jets, but couldn’t finish the deal. He’ll have a tough road test here against a Bills team that clearly is better at home. Even (possibly) without LeSean McCoy, the Bills should be able to get past the battered and bruised Cowboys, who are limping to the finish line. Against the spread: Cowboys plus-6.5.

Last week: Jacksonville over Atlanta (L). 9-point record: 6-9. ATS, Falcons +3.5 (W)

8 points: OAKLAND over SAN DIEGO, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.

The up-and-down Raiders look like they will be a real contender in 2016, and they’ll face a San Diego team that has been playing its best football as of late. Interesting side note is that one of these teams could be heading back to Los Angeles (Chargers?) when the season is done. Against the spread: Chargers plus-5.5.

Last week: Washington over Buffalo (W). 8-point record: 9-6. ATS, Redskins, even (W)

7 points: INDIANAPOLIS over MIAMI, Sunday at noon

Will he or won’t he? Andrew Luck has a shot to come back, and the Colts know they need to win the final two to make the playoffs. Whether he comes back or not, I like Indy to keep their hopes alive into Week 17. Against the spread: No line due to the uncertainty of Luck. I’m going to take the Colts, regardless of the spread or who plays. (My rough guess is it’s Dolphins -1.5 if Luck doesn’t play and Colts -2.5 if he does.)

Last week: Minnesota over Chicago (W). 7-point record: 11-4. ATS, Bears -5.5 (L)

6 points: TAMPA BAY over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon

Just as I’m not picking against Carolina until they prove me wrong, the same goes in the other direction for the Bears. And while I have the floor, this team is never ever going anywhere with Jay Cutler as their quarterback. Against the spread: Bucs minus-2.5.

Last week: New Orleans over Detroit (L). 6-point record: 11-4. ATS, Saints -3.5 (L)

5 points: PHILADELPHIA over WASHINGTON, Saturday at 7:25 p.m.

One could take the bottom five picks here and throw them up in the air and pick the order. I don’t like any of them. I had a feeling the Eagles would come out strong last week at home and play Arizona tough, but that obviously didn’t happen. Conversely, I don’t believe in Kirk Cousins, and they’re due for a letdown on the road in a game that could clinch the division title. Narrow victory for the Eagles in a moderately high-scoring game. Against the spread: Redskins plus-3.5.

Last week: Houston over Indianapolis (W). 5-point record: 9-6. ATS, Texans +1.5 (W)

4 points: MINNESOTA over NY GIANTS, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.

The Vikings have only lost to one team all season that currently has a losing record, and that was at San Francisco in Week 1 on Monday night. With the Giants teetering on the brink of elimination and the Odell Beckham Jr. situation, I’d be surprised if they could muster enough spirit to come up with a real challenge here in what could be one of the final games for Tom Coughlin as coach. Against the spread: Vikings minus-4.5.

Last week: Pittsburgh over Denver (W). 4-point record: 7-8. ATS, Broncos +6.5 (L)

3 points: JACKSONVILLE over NEW ORLEANS, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

Has anyone figured out when the Saints will show up? While the Jaguars don’t have outstanding talent at any one spot on offense, they have plenty of weapons to hurt the Black and Gold. Conversely, Jacksonville’s defense is just good enough to slow down Drew Brees and company. A sad home finale in what has been the worst season since 2005 for Who Dats. Against the spread: Jaguars plus-3.5.

Last week: Arizona over Philadelphia (W). 3-point record: 5-10. ATS, Eagles +3.5 (L)

2 points: DENVER over CINCINNATI, Monday at 7:30 p.m.

AJ McCarron played well in Andy Dalton’s absence against San Francisco, but Denver’s defense is something altogether different. While I think it should stay close, the Broncos must win to have any shot at wresting a bye from Cincinnati in the upcoming playoffs. Low-scoring – 16-13 or so. (On a side note, I find it interesting the oddsmakers don’t seem to care whether Peyton Manning plays or not. As of Monday, the line is available just about everywhere.) Against the spread: Bengals plus-3.5.

Last week: San Diego over Miami (W). 2-point record: 8-7. ATS, Chargers, even (W)

1 point: ARIZONA over GREEN BAY, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

One of the toughest games to pick this season in what has the potential to be a preview of the NFC championship game. In my mind, although Carolina has a better than realistic chance at going 16-0, I still feel as if the Cardinals are the team to beat in the conference – and might be the best overall team in the NFL. No better way to gauge your team before the playoffs than against Aaron Rodgers. Love the over if it’s 50 or below. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-4.5.

Last week: NY Giants over Carolina (L). 1-point record: 6-9. ATS, Giants +5.5 (W)

* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.

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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 13-3. Season: 136-88 (.607).

Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 11-5. Season: 107-117 (.478).

POINT TOTALS

Week 15: 120 /136 possible points. Weekly rank: T23 out of 102. Overall: 1,194/1,657. Overall rank: 13 of 256.

Week 15 READERS winner: Colleen Lang, 132/136. (Wow.)

Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 1,236/1,657.

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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)

Week 15: 13-3 straight up, 11-5 ATS

Week 14: 11-5 straight up, 8-8 ATS

Week 13: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 ATS

Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS

Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS

Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS

Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS

Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS

Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS

Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS

Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS

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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr. 

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