Signing Henderson Alvarez would be wise gamble for A’s

(AP) Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane is always looking for a low-risk gamble that could turn profitable for his ballclub.

His latest signing may prove to be that and then some, as he’s reportedly reached a one-year, $4.25 contract with former All-Star Henderson Alvarez.

The 25-year-old right-hander was non-tendered by the Miami Marlins this winter after undergoing shoulder surgery in July. The Marlins decided they didn’t want to pay out the $4 million salary Alvarez was projected to earn in arbitration due to concerns over his recovery.

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Some would label it a cheap move on the Marlins part, which would be par for the course for a franchise happy to cut financial corners, but the unpredictable nature of shoulder injuries can’t be ignored either. There’s no guarantee Alvarez will return to form in 2016 or any point after that for that matter, but that’s a gamble Beane is happy to take for a couple reasons.

First and foremost, Alvarez is still very young and he comes pretty cheap all things considered. His $4.25 million guaranteed is a drop in the bucket compared to the going rate for other proven starters on the market. If he returns healthy next season and can lock down a spot in Oakland’s rotation, it will look like money well spent. Especially when you factor in Oakland having one more season of control with Alvarez arbitration eligible again next winter.

If he’s not healthy or proves ineffective, Oakland can go the same route as Miami and non-tender Alvarez, freeing them from a similar commitment next winter. There’s next to no downside involved, and there are varying levels of upside depending on performance. Among those would be Alvarez rebuilding his value and becoming a possible trade chip some time in the next 24 months.

Signing left-hander Scott Kazmir also worked out well for the A's. (Getty Images) That ties into the other reason why the A’s are happy to make this deal with Alvarez, and why they’ve also signed left-hander Rich Hill, who’s career seemed over due to elbow problems. They recently experienced success with a similar signing in Scott Kazmir. The veteran left-hander made just one major-league appearance between 2011 and 2012 due to shoulder issues, but earned Comeback Player of the Year honors with the Cleveland Indians in 2013. The A’s then signed him to a two-year deal and got 49 mostly productive starts over two seasons before trading him to Houston at the trade deadline for two prospects.

When teams hit on these types of signings, they can prove beneficial on multiple levels. Kazmir is a good example of this, as his productive 2014 season helped Oakland reach the AL wild-card game. Then another solid season in 2015 helped them to land prospects. It wasn’t a major haul, but any depth is good depth.

This signing also helps Billy Beane offset a more expensive gamble that was taken in signing reliever Ryan Madson to a three-year, $22 million deal two weeks ago.

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As it stands right now, Alvarez is reportedly expected to miss at least the first month of the regular season. That would be the best-case scenario, which to be truthful makes counting on production prior to the All-Star break awfully difficult. If the best case comes true though, and Alvarez flashes the form that led to a no-hitter in 2013 and an All-Star selection in 2014, he gives manager Bob Melvin a nice compliment to Sonny Gray.

And hey, if Rich Hill proves his 2015 comeback story was more than a small sample size, suddenly Oakland’s rotation could look pretty good with a bonafide and a good mix of youth and experience behind him.

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