St. Louis Rams 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Tampa Bay made a late run against the St. Louis Rams, but for most of the game, it was out of control of the Buccaneers’ hands. Tavon Austin managed to score twice, proving that if you are going to ignore the quarterback position, which the Rams have for the most part, then building a misdirection offense is your best bet to win NFL games.

This was a bittersweet moment for St. Louis, a team that opened up as pick’ em at home to becoming a slight favorite. This well could have been the Rams’ last game in the city, but it was capped off with an eight-point win in their classic yellow and blue colors. In a few months, we might be calling them the Los Angeles Rams, but for the night, it’s St. Louis’ franchise to celebrate.

This was a classic game where “season momentum” was built for the Buccaneers to come away with a win, but when looking at both of these franchises from a game-by-game basis and taking into account their entire season’s work, the Rams should have been considered favorites on a neutral field, not pick’ em candidates for a prime-time game.

Cover: St. Louis

Opening line: New York Jets @ Dallas (+3)

Current line: New York Jets @ Dallas (+3.5)

The New York Jets, who are in the AFC wild-card playoff hunt, are three-point road favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, who are essentially playing for the first overall pick and a shot at the future quarterback of the franchise once Tony Romo leaves.

As a significant contributor for Dallas, Matt Cassel has lost by three or more points in five of the team’s seven matches with him under center in lieu of Romo. All three games Brandon Weeden contributed in also led to losses by more than a field goal. In total, the Cowboys backups have lost by three points or more in eight of their 10 attempts. Not a good look.

I’m not going to trust the Cowboys to win straight up when they have only done so once without Romo this season. I’ll cough up three points to avoid the mess in Dallas altogether. How much does home-field advantage matter in Arlington, Texas, anyway?

The pick: New York Jets (-3)

Opening line: Cleveland @ Seattle (-14)

Current line: Cleveland @ Seattle (-15)

Russell Wilson is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, but how long will he continue his streak without Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls in the backfield to close out the regular season? He’s thrown 16 touchdowns over the past four games while throwing for a completion percentage of 70 or more and averaging nine-plus yards per attempt. If he had been doing that all season, he would be running away with the MVP award.

During this four-game streak, Seattle has won by three scores three times, but it only had two such games in the previous nine. The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 14-point victory and are three-score underdogs. Even in Seattle, that’s crazy. There are few situations where a 15-point line in an NFL game is acceptable, and a one-dimensional Seahawks offense without a quality offensive line isn’t the right pick to go big or go home.

The pick: Cleveland (+15)

Opening line: Cincinnati @ San Francisco (+4)

Current line: Cincinnati @ San Francisco (+5)

Hold up, AJ McCarron is going to make his first start as an NFL quarterback, on the road no less, and his team is a favorite to win? Even though the San Francisco 49ers have been respectable under Blaine Gabbert?

You have to remember, McCarron hurt Amari Cooper and the Alabama offense while he was in Tuscaloosa. In that Johnny Manziel Texas A&M game that everyone loves to remember as a great triumph for the Aggies, McCarron missed wide-open deep shots about three or four times because his deep ball had too much air under it. He had two interceptions and a QB rating of 36.4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh is 21st in allowed passer rating for the season defensively, while the 49ers are 25th. Expect about the same performance from McCarron, if not worse, this week. This line essentially reflects to the Bengals being 11-point favorites at home. That’s insane. No backup quarterback, let alone one with McCarron’s inexperience at the NFL level and mediocrity at the college level, should be respected to that degree.

McCarron has already compared himself to Tom Brady. Remember, this is the same player who skipped the Senior Bowl, which was hosted in his hometown of Mobile, Alabama, because he wanted to cement his draft stock. He eventually heard his named called with the 154th overall choice in the 2014 class, and at 25 years old, he’s thrown 36 passes in his career. There’s a lot of karma going against the kid.

The pick: San Francisco (+5)

Opening line: Denver @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Current line: Denver @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)

So this is the new public team, eh? The Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure, their offense is efficient, but I’m not sold on them to this extent. Even as 6.5-point favorites, I’d lean on the Denver Broncos on the road.

Fact: Brock Osweiler is an upgrade over Peyton Manning at the most important position in the sport.

Fact: The Steelers are headed by Ben Roethlisberger, whom while tough and experienced, is an injury risk at any moment.

Fact: The Broncos lead the league in fewest total yards per game allowed and fewest passing yards per game allowed defensively, plus they rank third in rushing defense.

The Steelers would be pick’ em candidates in Denver, according to this line. The Broncos have lost by six or more points just once this season, against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the hottest team in the NFL. It’s hard for me to trust Pittsburgh with my money, hoping it’s the outlier when 92 percent of the teams Denver has faced this season wouldn’t have cashed in this bet in 2015, even under Manning.

The Steelers offense is great, but the public has completely forgotten about the Broncos’ great defense. Future $100 million contract-getter Von Miller is going to beat down a former wide receiver playing left tackle in the first quarter of this game, and expectations for Pittsburgh will come crashing back to earth.

The pick: Denver (+6.5)

Opening line: Kansas City @ Baltimore (+7)

Current line: Kansas City @ Baltimore (+7.5)

I’ve tried to fade the Kansas City Chiefs the past couple of weeks because their lines have been inflated, and we even hit on a San Diego Chargers cover last weekend, but I just can’t do that here. Yes, a seven-point line with three points of home-field advantage attributed on both sides means the Chiefs would be favored by 13 points if this game were hosted at Arrowhead Stadium. That’s fine.

The Baltimore Ravens used to be a team with a boxer’s chance to cover, even if they weren’t winning straight up, but their quarterback situation is a mess. Joe Flacco is out for the season with an ACL injury. Matt Schaub is a pick-six machine and was forced to miss the last game due to injury. Jimmy Clausen was a Chicago Bear to start the season but was cut after he performed poorly against the Seattle Seahawks. Clausen started last weekend for the Ravens, again against the Seahawks, resulting in a 68.1 passer rating—a slight improvement from his 61.6 mark the first time around.

The Ravens waived their fourth quarterback, Bryn Renner, to make room for Ryan Mallett, who slept his way out of Houston after taking over as the starter. Mallett was signed in some sort of Cincinnati-Baltimore AFC North bidding war that landed him a deal that could be worth up to $2.5 million next season, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

This is a bad football team with nothing to play for and a shot at a high draft pick against the streakiest team in the sport, which is hitting on all cylinders and trying to go full speed, as it still has a chance to win its division. 

The pick: Kansas City (-7)

Opening line: Tennessee @ New England (-12.5)

Current line: Tennessee @ New England (-14.5)

The Tennessee Titans have the tendency to, how should I put this, get blown out. They weren’t a good team under Ken Whisenhunt, and they haven’t made enough of an improvement without him to get out of the basement of the NFL, either. They are a young, growing team that is still in a rebuilding phase, and that’s more than fine.

One thing that is important for these young teams is to keep games interesting with young talent and play design. The Cleveland Browns play completely different when they know the promise of Johnny Manziel is dropping back to pass instead of the dead-end road that was Austin Davis. The Titans, if nothing else, are still trying to keep up team morale with plays like Marcus Mariota’s touchdown reception last week. They haven’t given up, but they have tempered expectations.

Gamblers can work with that.

This is the time of the year where lines get large, since the jig is up. No one is taking the Tennessee money line this week as anything more than a prayer. This point spread is up to two touchdowns for one reason: The public wants to bet the New England Patriots, last year’s Super Bowl champions who are coming off a bounce back from back-to-back losses.

You just can’t make a team in the NFL a two-touchdown favorite over a motivated opponent. Tennessee has lost six games by more than 14 points and has lost two by 14 points on the dot. The Patriots have won five games by more than 14 points in 13 games this season. This isn’t a sexy pick, but this late in the season, edges are smaller and smaller, and books are leveraging the public as hard as it can on this one.

The pick: Tennessee (+14.5)

Opening line: Chicago @ Minnesota (-4.5)

Current line: Chicago @ Minnesota (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears no longer have anything to play for. After they lost in that brutal game to the San Francisco 49ers in overtime, their heart was ripped out. Now out of the playoff hunt, this team should be playing for the future instead of the present.

On top of that, the Minnesota Vikings have been one of the best teams from an against-the-spread basis over the past two seasons. Professional gamblers loved the Vikings’ season over-under in the preseason, and they’ve been proved right at this point. Against the spread, they are 10-3 in 2015, including a 4-2 record at home.

If the Vikings were three-point favorites, this would be one of my locks of the week. Unfortunately, this number is up to 5.5 points, which, while it seems small and insignificant, matters. The deciding factor for me is Robbie Gould, the Bears kicker, who has been struggling as of late. He’s only made two of five field goals over the past two weeks, and the kicking position is the streakiest in the sport.

If I’m picking someone this weekend, I’m riding with the hungry team with a running game and defense with playoff aspirations. Remember, the Vikings are coming off an extended break after Thursday Night Football, when they nearly beat the Arizona Cardinals in a prime-time game.

The pick:  Minnesota (-4.5)

Opening line: Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-3)

Current line: Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-3)

This is an amazing turn of events, right? The Jacksonville Jaguars looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL to start the season, while Atlanta Falcons fans had Super Bowl aspirations. Entering Week 6, Atlanta was 5-0 and Jacksonville was 1-4. Now, they meet up with a 6-7 and 5-8 record, respectively.

Now, you can make the case that the Falcons are playing in a harder division in the NFC South, which features the undefeated Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are still alive in the playoff race in the AFC South, headed once again by a mediocre Indianapolis Colts team.

You must remember, though, Atlanta is on a six-game losing streak and is 4-9 against the spread for the season. Jacksonville is an average 7-5-1 this year against the spread, but it has posted 51 and 39 points in back-to-back weeks.

The conversations surrounding these two teams are fascinating. When the Falcons are brought up, statements start with “they started off hot but…” while the Jaguars’ start with “they aren’t very good but…”

In reality, I’d give Jacksonville a slight edge on a neutral field, plus the three points at home makes this a nice value play from a power-ranking standpoint. Matt Ryan is just short-circuiting at this point, and after a 38-0 loss to an in-division team, who Atlanta will face again next week, I can’t imagine him winning on the road.

The pick: Jacksonville (-3)

Opening line: Green Bay @ Oakland (+2.5)

Current line: Green Bay @ Oakland (+3)

It’s only a one-game sample, but Green Bay’s offense seems to be back. Eddie Lacy was sent to the bench in a castigation move and returned in a motivated 124-yard effort. Mike McCarthy, the Packers’ head coach, took over the offensive play-calling and led the team to a 28-7 win over the Dallas Cowboys, who have had a respectable defense in 2015, even when Tony Romo wasn’t starting at quarterback.

The Oakland Raiders were the hot talk of the NFL for a while, then they cooled off, and then last weekend they beat the Denver Broncos to give them just their third loss of the season. Despite the fact that Green Bay couldn’t beat Denver head-to-head, it is still clearly the better team, as the Packers have the edge at quarterback, in the backfield and on the defensive side of the ball if they aren’t playing from behind.

Oakland only scored 15 points in its win against the Broncos. That might not even give the Raiders the lead at the half against Green Bay. Even though they are on the road, I’m taking the Packers straight up and am more than willing to give up around three points to do so. All the pieces are finally aligning for a shifting Green Bay team.

This is also the first time Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP, is going to play in Oakland. The other three times he’s played in the Bay Area, where he went to school at California, he’s completed a total of 69 of 109 passes for 814 yards, six touchdowns and just two interceptions. Playing around his “territory” seems to be a positive for him, even on the road.

The pick: Green Bay (-2.5)

Due to Matt Hasselbeck’s health, there aren’t live lines on this game. The 40-year-old quarterback is taking it day to day, but there’s no promise he will start. Dropping down to Charlie Whitehurst, the team’s third quarterback, would be a rough stretch for the division-leading Indianapolis Colts.

Opening line: Buffalo @ Washington (PK)

Current line: Buffalo @ Washington (+1)

It’s the point of the season when the good teams start to separate themselves from the pretenders. While the Buffalo Bills aren’t anything close to a title contender, it’s safe to say the Washington Redskins, who somehow lead the NFC East with a 6-7 record, qualify as pretenders.

Just sit down and think to yourself: What is the Redskins’ identity? Kirk Cousins is a below-average passer in the league. Everyone was quick to anoint the Washington offensive line as a hugely improved unit, but as the season has gone on, the shine of that corps has dimmed. Really, the Oakland offensive line is what we thought the Redskins line was after Washington came away with a huge victory against the St. Louis Rams and their star-studded defensive line. In the running game, Washington is 23rd in the NFL in yards per carry.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Redskins allow the 21st-most yards per game. They rank 22nd in the league in allowed passer rating. They rank 29th in the league in yards per carry allowed.

Washington just doesn’t do anything well. Buffalo has a clear identity: It plays aggressively on the defensive side of the ball, has a mobile quarterback and is backed by the most complicated run game in the league. From a talent and coaching perspective, the Bills are just a better team. It’s hard to find teams with those edges losing in December.

The pick: Buffalo (PK)

Opening line: Arizona @ Philadelphia (+3.5)

Current line: Arizona @ Philadelphia (+3.5)

In Philadelphia’s last five games, it has scored 19, 17, 14, 35 and 23 points. It should also be noted, when the Eagles scored 35 points, three of their scores against the New England Patriots came off return touchdowns. If any game can be labeled as an outlier, it’s that one.

For the most part, the Eagles offense has sputtered this season. Long gone are the days when we thought that Chip Kelly was going to orchestrate a Super Bowl-level team in 2015. The Eagles still have playoff hopes, as they’re very much alive in the horrid NFC East despite a 6-7 record, but no one in the league believes they can make a run like the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens have made in recent years.

The larger issue with Kelly’s team is that the offense disregards time of possession. The Eagles used to rank dead last in the league but have risen to 28th in the statistic after recent performances. How long will that last, though? Having a late bye week and a Thanksgiving game has given the team time to rest, but in the final stretch of the season, there are no breaks for the defensive side of the ball to catch its breath.

Judging by four of their last five games, the Eagles will score around 18 points. The Arizona Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in 11 games and have hit 22 on the mark once. Twenty-two points would give Arizona a cover, if the Eagles play an average game to their standard.

The Cardinals can suffocate bad offenses, as we saw against San Francisco when Colin Kaepernick had a higher passer rating throwing to their defenders than his own teammates. How much better is Sam Bradford than Kaepernick? In two of his last five games, he wasn’t able to post a yards-per-attempt mark higher than five yards and tallied a 58.7 passer rating performance against the Carolina Panthers.

Arizona can win in a grinding game or a shootout. Philadelphia, to overcome its style, schematics and personnel, would have to play a near-perfect game to pull out a home win. I’m not ready to trust the Eagles to cover this spread, especially considering the fact that the Cardinals are 5-2 against the spread as an away team. They just get the job done. Arizona also has some extra rest after coming off a Thursday Night Football victory against the Minnesota Vikings.

The pick: Arizona (-3.5)

Opening line: Carolina @ New York Giants (+4)

Current line: Carolina @ New York Giants (+5)

This line opened with the Carolina Panthers as four-point favorites and has since jumped to five. Vegas just can’t keep up with the team, which is 10-3 against the spread, including 5-1 on the road. The Panthers have won 10 of their 13 games in 2015 by five or more points. Even if the line doesn’t drop down, or you were slow to pick it up, there’s still plenty of value here in a one-score game.

Eli Manning has an up-and-down history, and he just broke records with his 27 of 31 games that featured four touchdowns. If you look at history, the Giants’ disappointing is right on track to meet with the barnstorming Panthers. Dab on them, folks.

The pick: Carolina (-4)

Opening line: Miami @ San Diego (PK)

Current line: Miami @ San Diego (-1.5)

This has to be the least interesting game of the weekend. The most interesting part of this game will be the home crowd. San Diego is known to have a weak home crowd, and this might be the team’s last game in the city. With that being said, Miami Dolphins fans don’t even show up to home games, let alone travel to the opposite coast to watch two sub-.500 teams go head-to-head.

Are we going to take the broken down Chargers or the Dolphins, who are running out of coaches to fire? This line opened as a pick ’em and has since swung to the home team as a 1.5-point favorite. I don’t want to give anyone points in this situation. These two teams are just about even, and it’s going to be a dead atmosphere. 

With that said, there are two head cases leading Miami on both sides of the ball. Jarvis Landry is clearly the best offensive player the Dolphins have, and Ndamukong Suh is being paid like a king to play on the defensive side of the ball. That might be one reason for Miami’s variance on a week-to-week basis. I’ll take San Diego, the team with the home and quarterback edge, even if it isn’t great.

The Chargers almost took down the hottest team in the AFC last week. The Dolphins aren’t going to be mistaken for the Kansas City Chiefs anytime soon.

The pick: San Diego (PK)

Opening line: Detroit @ New Orleans (-3)

Current line: Detroit @ New Orleans (-3)

There are a lot of bad football games this week, and it’s capped off by this matchup on Monday Night Football. The identities of these teams aren’t too different. The Saints and Lions are both dome teams who depend on their offensive passing game and can’t do much outside of that. 

New Orleans is more consistent, though. Detroit has had its ups and downs, where at times it beats teams like the Green Bay Packers, but it also looked like it had a stronghold on the first overall pick for a while, too. Even without Mark Ingram in the ground game and virtually not fielding a defense, the consistency of the Saints attracts me. We know their flaws, but at least you know what you’re getting out of them.

These teams are about even from a power-ranking standpoint. If you believe in the Lions, I’d suggest taking the money instead of a three-point spread. I’ll ride with NOLA.

The picks: New Orleans (-3)

1. Green Bay (-2.5) @ Oakland
2. Buffalo (PK) @ Washington
3. Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-3)
4. Miami @ San Diego (PK)
5. Kansas City (-7) @ Baltimore

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.