NFL Awards Watch: How much should Cam Newton’s stats matter?
This isn’t exactly baseball’s scouts vs. analytics debate, because we won’t be talking about BEING GRITTY anywhere here, but Cam Newton’s MVP candidacy is shaping up in a similar way.
A lot of people think Newton is the front-runner for the league’s MVP. I think he took over the top spot a couple weeks ago. Those who don’t believe in Newton will cite his lack of big statistics — though, many people simply don’t like Newton and it’s easier to cite stats than use “I don’t like him!” as an argument.
And Newton’s stats, at least the familiar ones, will not tell an MVP story. Ryan Fitzpatrick has more passing yards. Blake Bortles has more touchdowns. Tyrod Taylor has a better passer rating. So it’s tough for some to wrap their heads around Newton being named the NFL’s best player this season.
“I think stats can be very misleading,” Panthers tight end Greg Olsen argued during a media tour this week for Buffalo Wild Wings. “Sometimes the teams with the worse records have gaudy stats because they play predominantly from behind and are passing a lot in two-minute mode. You have to be very careful in the NFL with stats. That’s not what football is. It’s not as black and white as baseball. It’s a different sport.”
That’s very true. Baseball is mostly a series of one-on-one confrontations with a clear outcome. There’s very little a football player can do on his own. A quarterback needs protection and the receivers to run correct routes. Receivers need quarterbacks who can deliver the ball. Running backs need blocking. Linebackers aren’t getting many tackles without the line in front of them occupying blockers. Everyone needs a sound scheme to thrive. And so on. Football is the ultimate team game. That’s why quarterback wins in a vacuum isn’t a real stat. No player has ever won a football game on his own.
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Newton plays a unique role on an offense that isn’t built to produce big passing numbers. The Panthers are one of the few teams that has more rushing attempts than passing attempts this season. Part of that is their record — teams don’t “run to win” as much as they “win to run,” and the 13-0 Panthers have salted away a lot of leads with the running game — but it’s also a function of having Newton, an enormous quarterback who is also a skilled runner. The Panthers have built their rushing offense around Newton. They’ll run option plays, or just have Newton keep it on a power or sweep play. The threat of him running the ball is something defenses have to account for every play. The Panthers are second in the NFL in rushing offense and second in rushing touchdowns. That’s a function of Newton.
Newton also doesn’t make a ton of short passes to boost his core passing numbers. The Panthers want him to throw to the intermediate and deep levels and take advantage of his power arm. Newton’s 59.1 completion percentage is behind Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel. But when we look at Newton’s “accuracy percentage,” a signature stat of Pro Football Focus, Newton’s 50.8 percent on passes of 20 yards or more is bested only by Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders. The Panthers offense plays to Newton’s strengths. And it’s worth mentioning that Newton’s receiving corps are widely considered one of the worst in the NFL.
The Panthers could run a different scheme that props up Newton’s numbers. But they probably wouldn’t win as many games.
“He’s the only quarterback in the league that has that the responsibility of being involved not just in the passing game but in the run game too,” Olsen said. “There’s so many things beyond the stat sheet you can’t measure with Cam. I don’t think people are used to that. With an MVP quarterback, people are used to looking at how many yards have you passed for, how many touchdowns and interceptions have you thrown? That’s not the case with him or our offense.”
The Panthers have discovered a formula that works on offense, which is very successful despite personnel that can’t compare to that of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals or Cincinnati Bengals, to name a few. Despite some personnel flaws, the Panthers lead the NFL with 411 points. That’s a direct reflection of Newton. And, of course, they’re three wins from the second 16-0 regular season in NFL history.
“If he doesn’t win the MVP there’s something wrong with the system and the whole process,” said Olsen, although he’s obviously biased for his teammate. “With what he’s accomplished and the team has accomplished, I’m not sure what more a guy can do.”
Newton is one of the cases in which numbers don’t tell the whole story. He has had an outstanding year (as has New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who I believe is not far behind Newton in the MVP race). To appreciate Newton, you’ll have to watch Panthers games and notice how much he does for a team that has the best record in football. You won’t find it all in a box score.
MVP rankings
1. Newton — It’s possible that Newton will win a college national title, Heisman Trophy, NFL MVP and a Super Bowl by 26 years old.
2. Brady — The Patriots will be heavily favored to win each of their last three games. If they win all three and Brady plays well, it should be a very interesting final vote. I have no problem with anyone who would vote for Brady at this point.
3. Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer — Palmer has posted a 100 rating in nine of 13 games, and a 98.1 in another. His consistency has been remarkable. It’s not crazy if someone voted for Palmer, either.
4. New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski — Among all players with more than 40 catches, only T.Y. Hilton and Allen Hurns have a better yards-per-catch average than Gronkowski’s 16.7. Yes, Gronk is averaging more yards per catch than Julio Jones, Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham. At tight end. The Patriots looked like a new team when Gronk returned from a knee injury last week. He’s the biggest difference maker in the NFL, other than the quarterbacks.
5. Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson — Andy Dalton held a top-five spot, but there’s a good chance the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback misses the last three regular-season games with that broken thumb. He gets bumped out of the top five for Wilson, who has 16 touchdowns and no interceptions the past four weeks. I don’t like to ignore almost half a season to put Wilson in the top five, but Wilson has unbelievable lately as the Seahawks have surged.
Defensive player of the year: Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network tweeted out a great stat: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant and Julio Jones have a combined nine receptions and 89 yards against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman, according to NFL Network research. It’s hard to gauge specifically how many receptions and yards are on Norman, because the Panthers run a lot of zone defense, but if you assume that’s fairly accurate you can understand why Norman holds the top spot. Also: I get the argument for Aaron Donald being somewhere in the top three, because he is a great player for the St. Louis Rams. But I can’t move Tyrann Mathieu out of the No. 3 spot (and can’t move the top two out either) becaues Mathieu has done so much for a much better defense and team.
The ballot: 1. Norman, 2. Houston Texans DE J.J. Watt, 3. Arizona Cardinals CB/S Tyrann Mathieu
Coach of the year: No change here of course, but even though he doesn’t crack the top three yet, I think it’s worth pointing out that Todd Bowles is having a fine first season as the coach of the New York Jets. They’ve maximized their talent very well.
The ballot: 1. Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera, 2. New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, 3. Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid
Offensive rookie of the year: A huge 140-yard, two-touchdown game for Todd Gurley last week makes things interesting. It’s tough to ignore that he had 171 yards combined for the four weeks before that and vault him back to the top spot, though. But a big “Thursday Night Football” performance might do it.
The ballot: 1. Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota, 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, 3. Gurley
Defensive rookie of the year: Buffalo Bills cornerback Ronald Darby keeps playing well, and it’ll be hard to knock him off. It’s not a particularly strong class of defensive rookies.
The ballot: 1. Darby, 2. New Orleans LB Stephone Anthony, 3. Kansas City Chiefs CB Marcus Peters
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
