Goal Line Stand: Week 15 Rankings
A third-round rookie out of FCS Northern Iowa, David Johnson got his first NFL start two weeks ago. He doesn’t seem to be looking back. Johnson cleared 120 yards from scrimmage twice in five days, finishing as the RB5 and RB13 in Weeks 13 and 14, respectively.
A cut up 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, Johnson has a receiver’s hands and breakaway speed. Carson Palmer has called Johnson “probably as natural of a catcher as there is,” while he hit 20.15 miles per hour as a runner against the Vikings. As NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling points out, that’s as fast as John Brown was on his 65-yard touchdown. Johnson hit 22.05 MPH in Week 1, the top speed for any running back this season.
Johnson’s hands and speed were his calling cards coming into the league, but his power was viewed as a question mark despite his Adrian Peterson-esque frame. Johnson ran stiff and upright in college, often ducking hits. It’s yet to be an issue in Arizona. Johnson has shed only 10 tackles all season, but hasn’t shied away from contact in his starts. He’s done everything asked of him, even turning in some nice blocks in pass protection. There’s a chance the Cardinals have found themselves a real deal every-down runner, one who could lead their backfield for years to come.
The years to come aren’t a concern for fantasy owners, of course, but Johnson’s Week 15 matchup is mouthwatering in an Eagles defense allowing the fifth most rushing yards per game, and eighth most yards per carry. Even if Andre Ellington (turf toe) is active, Johnson is an elite RB1 for the fantasy semifinals.
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Week 15 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: You’re not “chasing points” with Russell Wilson. You’re chasing the best month by any quarterback this season. Fresh off back-to-back road dominations of the Vikings and Ravens, Wilson returns home against a Browns pass defense in wholesale disintegration. The only concern is that Wilson doesn’t have to do much as Seattle builds a huge early lead. … With Rob Gronkowski back in the fold, Tom Brady had his most efficient game in over a month against the Texans. Now Julian Edelman (foot) could be returning against the Titans, whose previously overachieving pass defense has been throttled by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr over the past three weeks. … Operating on 10 days rest, QB3 Carson Palmer will do battle with an Eagles pass defense that’s allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With his elite receiver trio finally 100 percent healthy at the same time, Palmer has been dead-eye deadly. … Cam Newton has been the MVP of the league. Newton has shot off into the stratosphere over the past month even though his No. 2 pass catcher is Ted Ginn. If there’s a concern, it’s that the 13-0 Panthers might start playing with one eye on the postseason. Greg Olsen (knee) is expected to be active against the Giants, but will he play a full complement of snaps? Fire Newton up, but don’t be surprised if his most explosive stretch is behind him as his team’s focus shifts to January.
With Mike McCarthy once again calling the Packers’ plays, Aaron Rodgers posted his highest quarterback rating in seven weeks. Big plays were still lacking, but rhythm seemed to return against an underrated Cowboys defense. Now Rodgers gets a Raiders team allowing the fifth most passing yards in the league. There’s more to fix, but still somehow the QB8 on the season, Rodgers is worth betting on. … You don’t have to believe in Blake Bortles’ tape — lord knows Pro Football Focus doesn’t — but after 14 weeks, you should probably be buying into his numbers. The QB4 by average points, Bortles has 10 scores over his past three games, and a Jaguars record 30 on the season. He’ll get the job done against the collapsed Falcons. … Part of me wants to make Ben Roethlisberger the QB1. He’s been that good. But I’ll opt for caution against a Broncos defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Matchups have scarcely mattered for Ben — see his 351 yards in New England or 456 yards in Seattle — but he offers more floor than ceiling against Denver’s truly elite defense.
Drew Brees vs. Matthew Stafford in New Orleans — who ya got? The quarterback who’s averaged a score every 15 passes at home, or the quarterback getting a defense that’s allowed seven more passing touchdowns than any other team? I’ll lean Brees, who has compiled 13 scores over his past three home starts. That includes three against the Panthers in Week 13. It’s obviously a dream matchup for Stafford, but the Saints’ defense is coming off its best effort of the season. New DC Dennis Allen seems to be making a difference, limiting Brian Hoyer and Jameis Winston to a combined three scores and 387 yards … with getting dominated by Cam Newton in between. Stafford’s upside is obviously appealing, but he’s managed more than two touchdowns just twice in 13 games. The Saints give him a great floor, but his ceiling might be more elusive than people think. … Tyrod Taylor in six games since returning from his knee injury: QB21, QB23, QB25, QB5, QB7 and QB11. It’s been the “No Middle Ground” rollercoaster. Week 15 seems a peak rather than a valley, with Buffalo traveling to Washington to take on a Redskins defense that’s smack dab in the middle of the pack.
Playing the best football of his career, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the QB3 over the past three weeks, but has a tougher-than-it-looks matchup in the Cowboys, who have quietly permitted the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Fitz is all but guaranteed to get two scores, but three or four seems unlikely. … Derek Carr has a FitzMagic-ian floor, but has seen his ceiling limited by tough matchups of late, with the Packers being another. Carr gets two scores in his sleep, but a monster day probably isn’t in the Week 15 cards. … Alex Smith has cleared 20 fantasy points in only 6-of-13 games, but will almost certainly make it 7-of-14 against the Ravens, who are being dominated for a 101.3 QB rating against. … Philip Rivers has become entirely matchup dependent, but has a mouthwatering one in a Dolphins defense that just allowed an 87.1 completion percentage to Eli Manning. With emotions sure to be running high in what could be the final game in San Diego, look for Rivers to bounce back from his dismal Weeks 13 and 14.
Which brings us to Eli. He literally couldn’t have been better against the Dolphins — he had as many touchdowns as incompletions (four) — but the Panthers have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the lowest QB rating in the league (69.6). Odell Beckham guarantees weekly QB2 status for his quarterback, but Manning doesn’t have much of a Week 15 ceiling. … Coming off his best fantasy effort in a month, Jay Cutler should be good for two TDs against the Vikings’ injury-ravaged defense. … The matchup is right for Matt Ryan in a Jags team allowing the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but it’s hard to trust a player with more turnovers (18) than touchdowns (17). Ryan hasn’t had a multi-score day since before Thanksgiving. … Marcus Mariota has started making big plays on the reg’ — including as a receiver against the Jets — but anything other than a sleepy afternoon in New England would be a surprise. … A.J. McCarron has a nice matchup for his first NFL start, but with Tyler Eifert likely to join Andy Dalton on the bench, expect a run-heavy approach against the 49ers’ sieve-like defense.
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