Seven teams most likely to earn top pick in 2016 NFL draft
While the NFL playoff race is heating up, there’s another race that’s really starting to boil down: that of the league’s basement.
Seven teams currently have three or four victories, and though it’s mathematically possible for one of the five 5-8 teams to earn the first overall pick of the 2016 NFL draft, it’s most likely that one of the bottom seven will end up picking first.
Here are the seven teams in their current order (the first tiebreaker after overall record is opponents’ win percentage — the lower it is, the higher the team’s pick will be):
| Current draft pick | Team | Record | Opponent win % | Remaining opponent win % |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 3-10 | 0.495 | 0.590 |
| 2 | San Diego Chargers | 3-10 | 0.524 | 0.538 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 3-10 | 0.529 | 0.615 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 4-9 | 0.514 | 0.667 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 4-9 | 0.529 | 0.359 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 4-9 | 0.534 | 0.487 |
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 4-9 | 0.543 | 0.513 |
The Titans are the odds-on favorites to earn the top pick, it would appear, based on their significantly lower opponent win percentage combined with a tough remaining schedule (although, math alert: that actually could work against them if they don’t win out, as illogical as that might read).
The Ravens are one of four NFL teams never to have earned the top pick, but their chances are decent if they lose out and the Titans, Chargers and Browns all win at least one more game this season. It’s going to be tough for, say, the Cowboys to earn the first pick given their tiebreaker disadvantage.
What’s notable here is that the Browns were sitting in the top slot prior to Sunday’s victory over the San Francisco 49ers, and because they have a tough slate remaining they would appear to be stuck in a spot outside of the top pick unless the Titans or Chargers (who almost won Sunday) start putting up some W’s. The Browns, so they say, can’t win for losing, it would appear.
So is winning the first overall pick a huge coup? Perhaps not, as there does not appear to be a clear-cut superstar for this upcoming draft. Joey Bosa? Laremy Tunsil? A quarterback? Who knows? But landing the first pick allows a team to get whichever player it favors the most, and with the league’s amended salary considerations it no longer is a financial burden to do so.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
