NFL Picks Week 15: Patriots, Seahawks easily win; Saints top Lions – NOLA.com

Does it feel like Week 15 already? Well, it depends on how your picks have gone. (Or how your favorite team has played.)

In my case, it feels sort of like Week 31.

But every now and then you get one of those weeks when it seems easy. Every pick is either right or just misses. A smile from ear to ear from noon to 10:30 p.m. Heck, even the home team with the long losing streak puts one in the win column.

What does that mean the following week? Thinking positively, it means we’re going to turn those near-misses into close victories. And we’re still looking for our first undefeated week.

Is this it? Maybe it’s yours. Let’s find out! Good luck!

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Here we go with Week 15 (home team in bold):

16 points: NEW ENGLAND over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon

How much explanation do you need here? Anyone who thinks Tennessee is going to win this one, please feel free to leave your message below and I’ll be happy to tell you what sort of other fun things you can do on Sundays. Against the spread: Patriots minus-14.5.

Last week: Carolina over Atlanta (W). 16-point record: 4-2. ATS, Falcons +7.5 (L)

15 points: SEATTLE over CLEVELAND, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

Um, I thank the schedule-makers for giving us two easy ones this late in the season? You still alive in your knockout pool? You saved Seattle just for this week? Ha ha ha, I know – that’s been over for weeks. Against the spread: Seahawks minus-14.5.

Last week: Kansas City over San Diego (W). 15-point record: 4-3. ATS, Chargers +10.5 (W)

14 points: KANSAS CITY over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon

I said last week I wasn’t going to pick against the Chiefs again until they lost, and honestly, this one could be a shutout. With this being Kansas City’s last regular-season road game, it’s going to be easy to pick them the rest of the way. Against the spread: Chiefs minus-7.5.

Last week: Green Bay over Dallas (W). 14-point record: 11-2. ATS, Packers -7.5 (W)

13 points: GREEN BAY over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

Two big-time unknowns in this one – it’s never a sure thing for Green Bay on the road, and the Raiders are a team that’s great one week and very average the next. They were great last week – at least in the second half – so I’m guessing this young team will have trouble against a Packers team that has Minnesota nipping at its heels. Against the spread: Packers minus-2.5.

Last week: Seattle over Baltimore (W). 13-point record: 10-4. ATS, Seahawks -5.5 (W)

12 points: NY JETS over DALLAS, Saturday at 7:25 p.m.

Although the Cowboys remain alive in the NFC Least, they’re going nowhere with Matt Cassel at quarterback. While I think the Jets will have trouble scoring against this defense, I think they should be able to win a low-scoring affair. Against the spread: Jets minus-2.5.

Last week: Denver over Arizona (L). 12-point record: 9-5. ATS, Broncos -7.5 (L)

11 points: CINCINNATI over SAN FRANCISCO, 3:25 p.m.

As of the time I type this, Andy Dalton is “week-to-week” with an injured thumb. He doesn’t need surgery, and he doesn’t need to play against the 49ers for Cincinnati to win this one. Against the spread: Bengals minus-4.5.

Last week: NY Jets over Tennessee (W). 11-point record: 9-5. ATS, Titans +7.5 (L)

10 points: ST. LOUIS over TAMPA BAY, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.

Trying not to take too much out of these two teams’ performances last week, because neither has been consistently good or bad. In the end, I think the Bucs were playing over their heads for much of the season, and if they couldn’t score against a pitiful defense like the Saints last week, why is it going to get better on the road in a short week? Against the spread: Rams, even.

Last week: Philadelphia over Buffalo (W). 10-point record: 11-3. ATS, Eagles, even (W)

9 points: JACKSONVILLE over ATLANTA, Sunday at noon

When I first started moving teams around, I originally had this one near the top. However, something smells fishy, and most likely because it’s still tough to put too much stock into Jacksonville no matter how bad Atlanta has been. Something tells me the Falcons will be better – because the pressure is off – but I still think the Jags squeak by in a high-scoring, fun game. Against the spread: Falcons plus-3.5.

Last week: New England over Houston (W). 9-point record: 6-8. ATS, Patriots -3.5 (W)

8 points: WASHINGTON over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon

Over the past few weeks, the Redskins have seemed to emerge as the best team in their pathetic division. Also, as the weeks fly by, Kirk Cousins is playing with more and more confidence, especially at home. Tight game that could be won on a kick at the final gun. Against the spread: Redskins, even.

Last week: New Orleans over Tampa Bay (W). 8-point record: 8-6. ATS, Saints +3.5 (W)

7 points: MINNESOTA over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon

It has been a tough stretch for the Vikings, who have lost three of their past four. But winning last month in Chicago should give them confidence they can win this one at home. If it comes down to a game-winning kick, I’m taking Blair Walsh over a reeling Robbie Gould. Against the spread: Bears plus-5.5.

Last week: Chicago over Washington (L). 7-point record: 10-4. ATS, Bears -2.5 (L)

6 points: NEW ORLEANS over DETROIT, Monday at 7:30 p.m.

In a prime-time matchup few will watch outside of the Big Easy or Motor City, two disappointing teams try to make Christmas a little brighter. Although I think the Lions will put up quite a few points, I think the Saints, who are 12-4 on Monday night under Sean Payton, will put up even more. Against the spread: Saints minus-3.5.

Last week: Arizona over Minnesota (W). 6-point record: 11-3. ATS, Cardinals -7.5 (L)

5 points: HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at noon

In a matchup between the two teams leading the AFC South, the Colts are simply in a free fall. Although there’s an outside shot Andrew Luck returns, if you were the coach or GM, would you want his first game back to be against JJ Watt? I doubt it happens and doubt even more Indy can win this game or the division. Against the spread: As of now, there’s no line due to the uncertainty of Luck’s status. If it’s Texans minus-2.5 or less, I’ll take them. Otherwise, I’ll take the Colts.

Last week: San Francisco over Cleveland (L). 5-point record: 8-6. ATS, 49ers +1.5 (L)

4 points: PITTSBURGH over DENVER, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

In another game that involves a team with an uncertain quarterback situation, as of late Monday night, Peyton Manning’s return is a small possibility. I don’t think it matters, as the Steelers are beginning to look like a contender to face New England in the conference championship. And no, I’m not going any further than that until someone hands me some egg nog. Against the spread: Broncos plus-6.5.

Last week: Jacksonville over Indianapolis (W). 4-point record: 6-8. ATS, Jaguars, even (W)

3 points: ARIZONA over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.

So are the Eagles the team that beat the Patriots and Bills or the one that was routed in two previous weeks by Detroit and Tampa Bay? I don’t think it matters – they’re just not good enough to beat the best team in the NFC. Against the spread: Eagles plus-3.5.

Last week: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati (W). 3-point record: 4-10. ATS, Steelers +3.5 (W)

2 points: SAN DIEGO over MIAMI, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

It has been a rough season for the Chargers, who will finish with double-digit losses for the first time since 2003. That just so happens to be the last time they finished with a losing record. For a team that has scored six total points in their last two home games, the Dolphins should be just what the doctor ordered. Against the spread: Chargers, even.

Last week: Miami over NY Giants (L). 2-point record: 7-7. ATS, Dolphins, even (L)

1 point: NY GIANTS over CAROLINA, Sunday at noon

Dumbest pick of the year, you say? Well, who knows how to beat an undefeated team late in the season better than the Giants? I have been saying all along I don’t think the Panthers will finish the season unscathed – and I certainly am not sold on them being a Super Bowl team. This feels like as good a place to slip up as any. Against the spread: Giants plus-5.5.

Last week: Detroit over St. Louis (L). 1-point record: 6-8. ATS, Lions, even (L)

* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.

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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 11-5. Season: 123-85 (.591).

Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 8-8. Season: 96-112 (.462).

POINT TOTALS

Week 14: 109 /136 possible points. Weekly rank: T3 out of 99. Overall: 1,074/1,521. Overall rank: 15 of 256.

Week 14 READERS winner: Ryan Kitchen, 118/136.

Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 1,125/1,521.

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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)

Week 14: 11-5 straight up, 8-8 ATS

Week 13: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 ATS

Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS

Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS

Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS

Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS

Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS

Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS

Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS

Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS

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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr. 

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