NFL picks vs. the spread, Week 15: Saints, Bortles-led Jaguars win again – NOLA.com
Don’t look now but the 2014 is starting to look like a good year for NFL quarterbacks.
Four second-year signal callers are starting for four different teams, and three of them – Blake Bortles; Derek Carr; and Johnny Manziel – won games last weekend for their respective teams. And Teddy Bridgewater has the Vikings right in the thick of the NFC playoff chase.
Carr and Bridgewater have established themselves as solid starters in Oakland and Minnesota, respectively. After a trouble-filled start in Cleveland, Manziel gave Browns fans hope in a 24-10 win against San Francisco. And backups Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Mettenberger have starter potential for some NFL team down the road.
But the gem of the 2014 draft class is Bortles, who has emerged as a potential star in leading the surprising Jaguars into playoff contention.
The 23-year-old from Central Florida has passed for 3,524 passing yards and a single-season franchise record 30 touchdowns. Both figures rank in the league’s top 10. He joins Dan Marino, Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper as the only NFL quarterbacks to pass for 30 touchdown passes in a season at age 23 or younger.
You have to wonder if the Houston Texans regret selecting Jadeveon Clowney instead of Bortles with the No. 1 overall selection. Clowney has rebounded from an injury-plagued start to his career to record 3.5 sacks in the past four games. But Bortles, who the Jaguars selected at No. 3, looks like a franchise quarterback, the kind of guy the Texans have sorely lacked throughout their 19-year existence.
Clowney is good. Bottles is better.
Lions at Saints (-3): The Monday Night Football schedule-maker should be fired. This will make four consecutive MNF matchups of losing teams. We know the Saints are going to bring it after the way they ransacked the Bucs last week in Tampa. But the Lions are another story. Coach Jim Caldwell reportedly is on the way out in Detroit after consecutive losses to the Packers and Rams and the Lions have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. Saints 26, Lions 20
Buccaneers at Rams (E): Not a lot to get excited about in this Thursday night matchup. The Bucs squandered a golden chance to stay in the NFC playoff race with a home loss to the Saints last week. Now they face a Rams team that could be playing its penultimate game in St. Louis before heading to Los Angeles. We’ll learn a lot about the young Bucs from their performance in this one. I see a rebound effort. Buccaneers 24, Rams 23
Jets at Cowboys (-3.5): The Jets have won three consecutive games and are locked in a three-way battle with the Kansas City and Pittsburgh for the two wild-card spots in the AFC. Can’t see them losing with so much on the line. Jets 22, Cowboys 21
Texans at Colts (NL): This is essentially a playoff game. The winner assumes first place in the AFC East. And no one knows who will play quarterback for either teams yet. It looks like T.J. Yates will replace Brian Hoyer in Houston but no one knows if it’ll be Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst or Andrew Luck for Indy. With that in mind, I”ll take the team with the better defense. Texans 23, Colts 20
Bears at Vikings (-5.5): The Vikings will be happy to return to NFC North competition after consecutive losses to the Seahawks and Cardinals. They need this one badly to stay in the division and wild-card playoff race. Vikings 19, Bears 12
Falcons at Jaguars (-3.5): The Falcons have (free-)fallen and they can’t get up. Looks like changes are ahead in Atlanta – again. Meanwhile, Bortles and young receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have quietly blossomed into one of the league’s more prolific passing attacks. Jaguars 30, Falcons 20
Chiefs (-7.5) at Ravens: Alex Smith isn’t sexy but he’s managing Andy Reid’s ball-control attack exactly the way he wants. Smith has thrown just one interception in the past 10 games and the Chiefs are winning with a dominant defense and sound rushing attack. Chiefs 21, Ravens 19
Bills at Redskins (E): Two 6-7 teams with completely different narratives. The bloom is off the Rex Ryan rose in Buffalo. The Bills lead the NFL with 124 penalties, have lost three of their last four and probably will miss the playoffs for an unconscionable 16th consecutive year. Meanwhile, the Redskins are tied for the lead in the NFC East and are talking contract extensions for quarterback Kirk Cousins and head coach Jay Gruden. Redskins 27, Bills 17
Titans at Patriots (-14): The Patriots are a modern marvel. They recorded double-digit win seasons for 13 consecutive years and have won the AFC East seven consecutive times. They look like a lock for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and can name the score against the overmatched Titans. Patriots 27, Titans 16
Browns at Seahawks (-14.5): The Seahawks just might be the best team in the NFC right now. They’ve won six of their last seven and Russell Wilson has passed for 16 touchdowns and no interception in their four-game winning streak. Johnny Football could use a 12th and 13th man in this one. Seahawks 31, Browns 13
Packers (-3) at Raiders: If the Packers can block Khalil Mack – and that’s a big “if” with his 14 sacks – they should roll. The Raiders are improved but they’ve benefitted from a user-friendly schedule. Packers 28, Raiders 24
Broncos at Steelers (-6): The Steelers have scored 30 or more points in five consecutive games. The Broncos haven’t scored 30 in their past two games combined. The only mystery here is who plays quarterback for Denver: Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler. Steelers 27, Broncos 20
Bengals (-4) at 49ers: Cincinnati ranked among the least-injured teams in the league for most of the season but the bug has bitten big-time in recent weeks. A.J. McCarron replaces Andy Dalton under center. Don’t write off the Bengals just yet. Something tells me they rally in the face of adversity. Bengals 26, 49ers 19
Cardinals (-4) at Eagles: Seemingly out of nowhere, the Eagles have beaten the Patriots and Bills in back-to-back weeks to resurrect their playoff hopes. They can lose today and still win the NFC East by beating the Redskins and Giants down the stretch. They have more to play for than Arizona. Eagles 30, Cardinals 28
Week 14 overall record: 9-7
Week 14 record vs. spread: 8-8
Overall record: 106-88
Overall record vs. spread: 82-102-10
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