What We Learned: What’s behind LA Kings’ resurgence this season?
(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)
Remember last season how the Kings missed the playoffs and people said, “Ah yes, well, there are a lot of reasons that happened?”
And often those reasons included that they had played too many games in the past few years, were playing poorly in certain situations, or that they overused key players, that they failed to “turn it on” early enough in the season, the way things were going off the ice with players like Mike Richards and Slava Voynov, and so on. While a lot of those have some validity — except the oft-stated hogwash of the team’s ability to just decide it wants to play in a higher gear — the fact of the matter is that there were only two reasons the Kings didn’t even make the playoffs in 2014-15.
First was the fact that they went 3-15 in overtime and the shootout. Obviously only getting three wins out of what is essentially a coin flip is some pretty bad luck. This also means that the Kings went 37-27 in regulation, which isn’t really a great record, but it should be enough to get you into the playoffs.
Second is the fact that a lot of their non-regulation losses came against teams like Calgary (they went just 1-2-2 against those lucky, luck Flames), and Winnipeg (1-1-1), both of which took the wild card spots ahead of the Kings. Those were winnable games that the Kings did not win, and the opponents, to their credit, did.
But again, the ability to win or lose in overtime and the shootout is an awfully weird element of the NHL that has more impact on the standings than it should, given that it’s effectively not controllable from one year to the next. Teams that are dominant in 4-on-4 or even the shootout one year may not be the next. Not only do the Kings seem to go to OT at wildly different paces from one season to the next, they also can’t be counted on to win there with any regularity:
Again, it’s been proven that overtime games are largely a coin flip in terms of who wins and loses (and while one wonders if more skill comes out when it’s reduced to 3-on-3, we just don’t have the data on the new format yet to know for sure). The Kings’ record shows this to some extent, because they’re a dominant team in regulation, but have only cleared .500 in a full season once in the last three tries.
So yes, to some extent, the Kings’ sparkling record this season seems to come from their newfound “ability” to dominate at 3-on-3; they’ve only been to three shootouts out of nine tries, and are 5-1 in overtime. But even still, they’re 12-6 in regulation, which is a very, very strong run. And since that 0-3 start to the season, they’ve lost just five of their 26(!!!) games in regulation.
Why? Well, you could say that having the summer off had a positive effect in terms of this year’s start.
You can also say they’re playing in a bad division in which it’s pretty easy to win games (though they’re an astonishing 6-1-0 against Central teams and 4-4-0 against the Pacific). You can further say that the less shaky roster-related elements surrounding Voynov and Richards were cleared up. You might even be able to say that the roster additions they made in the summer are helping a lot.
But the thing you can really, really say about the Kings is that they’re still playing the same hockey they always have, and the results are just going the way they “should” a lot more often this time around.
Apart from that dip around the middle of last season in which the team was playing approximately 51 percent possession hockey for a 20-game stretch — which is a long time for the Kings to be so middling — you can see that this is consistently a 55-plus-percent possession team. And to that end, they score a bunch of goals an awful lot of the time. Over this long span, the Kings have about a 55 percent goal share to go with their 56.4 percent possession and .609 winning percentage.
These all cleave pretty closely, to be honest, but the chart above illustrates the extent to which the ability to score goals correlates nicely with the ability to win. That, of course, stands to reason. But given that we know goals are somewhat random events that can fluctuate wildly over short periods of time, we understand that them carrying goals-for and winning percentages below 50 percent can and do happen. Obviously they shouldn’t last for too long (such as Games 113-132), or be too severe (they only had a .300 winning percentage from Games 39-58), and these quickly corrected themselves.
The reason why is clear: While even the best goaltenders may go through rough stretches — such as Tuukka Rask for parts of this year and last — and great teams like LA can struggle to score for 10 or 15 games, quality outs itself regularly and predictably.
If you aggregated every expert prediction for this season, one imagines that there won’t have been too many that had the Kings on the outside of the playoff picture looking in after another 82 games. On the other hand, would many have predicted they’d be taking the fourth-most points per game in the league through mid-December? This is, again, a Kings team that has a heralded ability to “turn it on.” The old story goes that they rumble down the freeway at a comfortable 65 or 70 miles an hour for most of the year, then when the calendar flips to the new year, they jam the clutch and upshift. Before long, they’re going 90 and they look like Cup contenders once again.
It doesn’t work that way, of course. This is a team that goes through peaks and valleys like everyone else. For whatever reason, the valleys occasionally get pretty deep, but if you’re talking about maybe 30 games; worth of sustained stretches with sub-.500 hockey out of the last 190-something, this is just a team that doesn’t use a higher gear so much as it hits the occasional speed bump. As does everyone.
But when they hit the speed bump, it’s more noticeable because they go from juggernaut to only-okay most of the time. There are a lot of teams in this league that would kill to play like the Kings on their most middling day, because boy you can win a lot of games playing like a club that’s been the best possession team in four of the last five seasons and finished second the other time.
That’s the team-wide skill LA carries with it that no one else can even approach. Since 2011, LA has a 55.2 percent corsi share. The next-closest team is Chicago at 53.6 percent. That’s such a huge advantage in the game’s most repeatable skill that it can’t be taken for granted. Yeah they missed the playoffs last season, but if you played 1,000 seasons exactly like that one in every way except wins and losses, how often do you think that happens?
Possession numbers don’t tell you everything, but they give you more control over results than anything else we can monitor these days. The Kings are better at it than everyone. Have been for years. And that’s why they’re pummeling everyone again.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks are the worst team in the Pacific right now. And gee whiz.
Arizona Coyotes: Imagine thinking Anders Lindback is your better option in goal! Hoo boy.
Boston Bruins: Hmm yes what if being boring, and defensively sound, is the way the Bruins have to win hockey games as they are currently constructed? Wow. Hmm.
Buffalo Sabres: Can we talk for a minute about how amazing Ryan O’Reilly has been in Buffalo? Even beyond the goal below, he’s on 27 points in 30 games with a relative corsi of 4 against the toughest competition Dan Bylsma can find for him. What a player.
Calgary Flames: The Flames are on nine straight wins at home (but only four in regulation), including sweeping this five-game homestand. Next up: Four games at Nashville, Dallas. St. Louis, and Detroit. Plenty of losses coming right up. They’re also 8-2 after regulation this year. Haha.
Carolina Hurricanes: Jeff Skinner is looking like a good candidate for the Cy Young this year: 11 goals and only three assists.
Chicago: This team is scoring a lot of goals. Who saw that coming?
Colorado Avalanche: I don’t know, maybe no one wants to see a garbage team.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Pretty liberal use of the word “success” here, but JR is the one who is so often correct in his analysis.
Dallas Stars: Dallas is great, but it has only played five games against its own division. Things get tough starting now.
Detroit Red Wings: Best goaltending tandem in the league, by a mile. They really oughta trade one of ’em.
Edmonton Oilers: Hey gang don’t look now but the Oilers are winners of five straight. It’s gonna be hilarious when Connor McDavid comes back. Only another couple of weeks on that one.
Florida Panthers: Have to think this doesn’t go well.
Los Angeles Kings: The Kings haven’t won in Buffalo since 2003? How is that possible?
Minnesota Wild: Maybe a little early to make statements like this. There are still more days left in December than expired. Pretty easy to look good when your four of your six December games are against Toronto, Colorado twice, and Arizona.
Montreal Canadiens: When was the last time a team had 27 shots in a period? It was January 20, 1973. Jaromir Jagr was less than a year old.
Nashville Predators: Sometimes you run into a hot goalie on a bad team. Oh well.
New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider is a nice boy!
New York Islanders: This play is exactly why 3-on-3 is a blessed gift.
New York Rangers: The Rangers are…….. not good? Huh. hmm. Huhhhhhhh.
Ottawa Senators: Oh jeez. Hahaha.
Philadelphia Flyers: Ah yes, it’s uhhhhhh road weariness.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Yeah, I mean it’s fun to go in on ownership, especially when ownership is making a lot of hockey decisions, but if you look at the bottom of the Penguins’ roster — and especially the blue line — and say to yourself, “This is ownership’s fault!!!” you’re just being daft. Can’t imagine Mario Lemieux went down to Jim Rutherford’s office and said, “Hey Jimbo let’s run Ian Cole out there as our No. 2 defenseman, okay?” And Rutherford was like, “Ahhhhh this is terrible!!!!” but he did it anyway. Ian Cole is the No. 2 defenseman on this team, and Ben Lovejoy is the No. 3. Yeah jeez, I wonder why they’re not in a playoff spot. I bet it’s probably Ron Burkle’s fault.
San Jose Sharks: Horrible news for the club to lose Logan Couture for an indeterminate amount of time. This is a team in trouble.
St. Louis Blues: Jake Allen should just be the starter. How does Brian Elliott have 11 appearances in 30 games when Allen is playing like this?
Tampa Bay Lightning: Here’s the kind of thing Braden Holtby can do to you.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Well, this is a good way to sell a bunch of new jerseys.
Vancouver Canucks: Ooooo, more excuse-making.
Washington Capitals: Pretty nice that you can score just once at 5-on-5 in a three-game stretch and still go 1-1-1.
Winnipeg Jets: People like to watch the Jets when the Jets are good. More on this stunning development as it happens.
Play of the Weekend
You know it’s a pretty great goal when everyone in the booth is just laughing about it. I will say that they sell Kuznetsov short by saying that’s simply a “goalscorer’s goal.” Most goalscorers don’t even think to do that.
Gold Star Award
Johnny Gaudreau is a beautiful little angel and we are lucky to have him in our lives!
Minus of the Weekend
Mike Sullivan? Alright I guess.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User “Captain Controversy” lives up to the billing.
Montreal Offer -Jeff Petry, Alex Galchenyuk, 2016 First round pick. Conditional pick that is a 2017 second round pick that becomes a First round pick if the canadiens make it to the East Final this year.
Oilers offer – Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, 2016 First round pick, 2017 second round pick that becomes a first round pick if the Oilers make it to playoffs.
Signoff
We’ve got a disenchanted little girl in a Jello pudding commercial!
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
(All stats via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)
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