The Morning After: Andy Dalton's Bad Break
Can people change? It’s a philosophical question dating back to the earliest days of the bipedal. People do change, but can they? Andy Dalton would tell you yes. Dalton’s transformation came seemingly overnight. Formerly the poster boy for mediocre quarterback play, Dalton entered 2015 at a crossroads. Coming off yet another multi-interception playoff loss, Dalton was literally booed at a celebrity softball game last summer. His progress had stopped. He was closer to a millstone campaign than a milestone one.
But Week 14, there he was, on pace for new career highs across the board. Dalton’s 8.38 YPA was over a full yard better than his 2013 mark. His 66.1 completion percentage was the fifth best in football. He was on pace to match his career high in touchdowns (33) while posting a new career low in interceptions (eight).
Then he broke his throwing thumb trying to make a tackle after tossing an interception against the Steelers. Four months ago, this would have been the quintessential Andy Dalton anecdote. Now, it’s a punch in the gut for fantasy owners and Bengals fans alike. The injury is expected to be a season-ender, and as was the case with Carson Palmer’s torn ACL in Arizona last season, a likely guarantee that the Bengals won’t escape the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
That, of course, would be nothing new for Dalton’s Bengals, but this was the year things seemed destined to be different. Dalton’s peaks were no longer giving way to valleys as he worked with the best supporting cast of his five-year career. He had yet to go back-to-back starts without throwing for at least two touchdowns. He had stopped being “Andy Dalton, just good enough not to get benched” and started being “Andy Dalton, someone you actually want under center.”
Going forward, the Bengals will find themselves praying for some T.J. Yates magic from A.J. McCarron, and doing something they probably never thought possible: Counting down the days until Dalton’s return.
Five Week 14 Positives
Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen avoiding serious injury. The Panthers dismantled the Falcons 38-0 en route to 13-0 on Sunday, but not without a few injury scares. Thankfully, both Greg Olsen’s knee tweak and Jonathan Stewart’s foot ailment appear to be non-issues going forward. Both were held out for the second half against Atlanta, but only because Dan Quinn’s team couldn’t compete. Speaking afterward, coach Ron Rivera declared each of his star skill players “fine,” with the implication being they will be ready to go against the Giants. That’s great, but the twin scares probably make it more likely Rivera will start resting his starters in Week 16. That’s bad news for fantasy owners anticipating a date with a trophy.
Johnny Manziel’s return under center. Manziel has made only four starts this season, and yet, he’s been under center for two of the Browns’ three wins. Granted, the victories have come against Titans and 49ers teams arguably as bad as the Browns, but Manziel hasn’t lucked into his numbers over his past two games. “Money” is 54 for his last 76 (71 percent), compiling 642 yards (8.44 YPA) and two scores. He threw a mind-numbing pick on Sunday, but has largely avoided mistakes. That will be put to the test in Week 15, where he faces a Seahawks defense on the road that’s regained some of its swagger after getting carved up by Ben Roethlisberger in Week 12. Even an average day would be a huge victory for Manziel, and continue the momentum that maybe, just maybe, will put him under center in 2016.
Eddie Lacy’s rebound from his Week 13 benching. Starting against the Cowboys, Lacy took the rock 24 times for a season-high 124 yards. Throwing out his nightmare night against the Lions, it was his third straight 100-yard day on the ground after hitting the century mark zero times in Weeks 1-10. Lacy still split work with James Starks, but out-touched him 25-15. It was the reassuring effort Lacy’s owners needed after his Detroit debacle. Lacy is once again a weekly lock for 15 touches, and an upside RB2 for the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.
Russell Wilson’s continued reign of terror. We can update this stat: Over his past four starts, Wilson has 16 touchdowns and only 29 incompletions. Wilson is shredding everything in his path, and has already tied his career high for passing scores (26). Wilson is playing his best football at the right time, as the ‘Hawks are now down Thomas Rawls (broken ankle) as they look to sew up a Wild Card spot. There’s no reason to believe Wilson will slow down in Week 15, where he gets the Browns’ bottom-three defense at home.
Doug Baldwin’s latest monster afternoon. Baldwin scored three more touchdowns, bringing his total since the Seahawks’ Week 9 bye to a ridiculous nine. This, after he scored 17 times in his first 70 career games. Baldwin has gone from WR4 afterthought to WR2 conversation to WR1 borderline. For Week 15, he gets the Browns’ burnable defense, and will be a must start in even the shallowest of formats.
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